Invest 97s

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow another one....Looking very good.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&DISPLAY=

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 23 January 2006

A tropical low, 1000 hPa, lies just off the coast to the north of Milingimbi.
The low is weak and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the
next three days.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING IMPRESSIVE, SURPRISED THERE ISN'T A MAJOR STATEMENT FROM BoM!

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Tuesday 24 January 2006

A developing TROPICAL LOW 999 hPa is situated over the TIWI ISLANDS, and has
been moving slowly west. The low is expected to move south or southwest along
the western Top End coast. If the low moves over the TIMOR SEA, development of a
tropical cyclone would be possible on Thursday.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Wednesday: low,
Thursday: moderate,
Friday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[Coredesat]

24/0833 UTC 12.0S 128.6E T1.0/1.0 97S

[Coredesat]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 129.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER (LLCC) IN THE VICINITY OF CYCLING CONVECTION. 240600Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A VERY LARGE REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
TOP END OF AUSTRALIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ELONGATED 850 MB
VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Coredesat]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 128.0E,
HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 13.9S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND IN THE
TIMOR SEA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT AN ELONGATED REGION OF
CYCLONIC TURNING FROM THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COINCIDES WITH
AN ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SINCE A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS NOT DISCERNABLE IN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:05 pm CST Wednesday 25 January 2006

A TROPICAL LOW 999 hPa is situated over the southwest Top End near Port Keats
and is moving steadily southwards. It is expected to remain over land.

No tropical cyclone development is expected in the next few days.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.