TWC: "It Could Happen Tomorrow"

[Extremeweatherguy]

The only cat 3 to hit New England in the 20th century are:

1. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (946 mb), maybe a cat. 4.

2. *Hurricane Edna of 1954 (954 mb).

3. Hurricane Carol 1954 (though many say it was actually a strong cat 2).


* It seem likely that Hurricane Edna was undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle while near Cap Cod. Reports actually seem to indicate the presence of a second, slightly deeper, eye. This would explain why it was still so strong this far North.

Looks like Hurricane Carol was never a Cat 3, much less over New England. It's listed as a Cat 2 as max intentisy. As for Edna, it was a Cat 3 near Hatteras but weakening steadily up to New England, where it struck as a borderline Cat 2/Cat 1. By the way, hurricanes weaken considerably during an eyewall replacement cycle, they don't strengthen until after the cycle is complete and the eye contracts. Not sure what you mean by a "second deeper eye". A hurricane can have only one eye.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

well...I have seen double eyewalls form before where you would go through the first weaker eyewall, then calm down for a little bit, and then go through the main/stronger eyewall. Double eyewalls are actually common in strong hurricanes...one example is Hurricane Wilma as it was getting ready to strike Cancun, and Hurricane Charley also had a double eye wall. Below is just one of many sites I found that mention the "double eye wall":

http://thestormtrack.com/archives/2005/ ... s_dou.html

***they mention it about 4 pictures down***

[wxman57]

The only cat 3 to hit New England in the 20th century are:

1. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (946 mb), maybe a cat. 4.

2. *Hurricane Edna of 1954 (954 mb).

3. Hurricane Carol 1954 (though many say it was actually a strong cat 2).


* It seem likely that Hurricane Edna was undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle while near Cap Cod. Reports actually seem to indicate the presence of a second, slightly deeper, eye. This would explain why it was still so strong this far North.

Looks like Hurricane Carol was never a Cat 3, much less over New England. It's listed as a Cat 2 as max intentisy. As for Edna, it was a Cat 3 near Hatteras but weakening steadily up to New England, where it struck as a borderline Cat 2/Cat 1. By the way, hurricanes weaken considerably during an eyewall replacement cycle, they don't strengthen until after the cycle is complete and the eye contracts. Not sure what you mean by a "second deeper eye". A hurricane can have only one eye.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

well...I have seen double eyewalls form before where you would go through the first weaker eyewall, then calm down for a little bit, and then go through the main/stronger eyewall. Double eyewalls are actually common in strong hurricanes...one example is Hurricane Wilma as it was getting ready to strike Cancun, and Hurricane Charley also had a double eye wall. Below is just one of many sites I found that mention the "double eye wall":

http://thestormtrack.com/archives/2005/ ... s_dou.html

***they mention it about 4 pictures down***

First of all, he didn't mention a double eyewall, he mentioned a second deeper eye, which indicates he doesn't have a clear understanding of the eyewall replacement cycle process. But the key point was the implication that the start of such a cycle, intensification is halted and a weakening phase begins, not the reverse.

It's quite common for hurricanes, generally Cat 3-4-5, to undergoe eyewall replacement cycles. The first stage is the formation of an outer eyewall. This usually halts any strengthening and marks the beginning of a weakening process. As the inner eyewall collapses, the pressure typically rises and the wind speeds drop off. Even if the pressure were to remain the same, though, the wind speeds would diminish due to the increased pressure gradient. As the new, outer eyewall ccontracts, strengthening resumes. The entire process can take 24 hours or more.

[linkerweather]

I really don't think that a cat 5 could hit NYC, even if enhanced by a trough. Keep in mind if a trough were to act on a EC riding cane then it would start heading NNW or NW not NE into NYC.

But, I did check out the preview on the weather.com website and it mentions a Cat 3 hitting NYC not a Cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think a trough enhanced hurricane moving to the NW or NNW would have the QG support to intensify. That was the case with Isabel in 2003. The trough merely enabled the storm to maintain 90KT.

I believe that to get the proper enhancement, we'd need to have a NE moving hurricane as that would best aid the outflow, plus provide QG enhancement due to temp advection, vorticity advection, etc

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really don't think that a cat 5 could hit NYC, even if enhanced by a trough. Keep in mind if a trough were to act on a EC riding cane then it would start heading NNW or NW not NE into NYC.

But, I did check out the preview on the weather.com website and it mentions a Cat 3 hitting NYC not a Cat 5.

yeah, just saw a commercial for that on TV. and you are right, they say Cat. 3, not cat. 5. They also said that a Cat. 3 hits NYC once every 70 years on average and the last was 68 yrs. ago. They are due!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm


This is one of the resports that mention the "two eyes", and that it was a cat. 3 near Cape Cod (even the Hurricane Chart from the NHC has it as such). It was a cat 2/cat 1 when it hit the coast of Main near East Port (though I personally think it was still a three).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is the actual NWS Monthly Weather Review report on Edna. The possible double eye is mentioned on page 7 of the PDF:


http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/082 ... 9-0267.pdf

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm


This is one of the resports that mention the "two eyes", and that it was a cat. 3 near Cape Cod (even the Hurricane Chart from the NHC has it as such). It was a cat 2/cat 1 when it hit the coast of Main near East Port (though I personally think it was still a three).

very interesting article. I wonder if it is may be a trait of a weakening tropical storm that is begining to take on sub-tropical characteristics. Seems like the 2 eye scenario is very very rare.