Check Out The Area of Deep Convection Off Africa!

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at this area of deep convection off Africa!



Imagine if it was July, August, or September now!

By the way, since this is January, this might be a picture to save quickly!

[gatorcane]

can I say "here we go"???

[MiamiensisWx]

Did you save the picture above, boca_chris?

[gatorcane]

yes, I'm afraid 2006 is going to be a nightmare....

what's the shear look like there? Maps anybody?

[wxmann_91]

I've saved the picture into my Zeta folder as Zeta is in the upper-left corner.

Overall this is of little interest. You can see this is part of the ITCZ, which currently is very far south, and that shear, though ripping this convection apart, is also creating increased upper-level divergence to spark off these storms.

[gatorcane]

well it certainly is impressive for early January....very impressive

[wxmann_91]

well it certainly is impressive for early January....very impressive

Maybe the colors on the satellite...but this is as disorganized as my closet.

[george_r_1961]

Agreed. While it looks good this isnt going to develop into anything. Strong westerly winds aloft are prevalent across the tropics.

[gatorcane]

Agreed. While it looks good this isnt going to develop into anything. Strong westerly winds aloft are prevalent across the tropics.

I sure hope not! It's January!

[conestogo_flood]

Oh my God. Is that going to become a hurricane? Jeez.

[MiamiensisWx]

I know it won't develop. However, it looks very tropical on satellite imagery and is quite impressive for January, even though it is being sheared. If this were July, August, or September, it might very well have been a different story.

It is still firing impressive convection on infra-red imagery...

[Derek Ortt]

not that unusual. Just ITCZ convection in its normal place

[Astro_man92]

last night it was pretty deep reds all over and even quite a bit of grey

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A new area of convection is exiting Africa- but it'll probably
fizzle in 2-3 days due to shear unless shear lessens

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting to note that SSTs are slightly above normal in this
area even though SSTAs have been on a downward trend

[JamesFromMaine2]

Interesting to note that SSTs are slightly above normal in this
area even though SSTAs have been on a downward trend

Well I don't know if you have seen this but SSTAs are back up for Dec.

YEAR MO SST ANOM
2004 12 27.56 0.95
2005 1 26.84 0.99
2005 2 26.52 1.06
2005 3 26.63 1.18
2005 4 26.75 0.96
2005 5 27.41 1.18
2005 6 27.82 1.19
2005 7 28.06 1.03
2005 8 28.46 0.92
2005 9 28.75 0.86
2005 10 28.57 0.72
2005 11 27.95 0.54
2005 12 27.37 0.76

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting to note that SSTs are slightly above normal in this
area even though SSTAs have been on a downward trend

Well I don't know if you have seen this but SSTAs are back up for Dec.

YEAR MO SST ANOM
2004 12 27.56 0.95
2005 1 26.84 0.99
2005 2 26.52 1.06
2005 3 26.63 1.18
2005 4 26.75 0.96
2005 5 27.41 1.18
2005 6 27.82 1.19
2005 7 28.06 1.03
2005 8 28.46 0.92
2005 9 28.75 0.86
2005 10 28.57 0.72
2005 11 27.95 0.54
2005 12 27.37 0.76

Yes thanks I hadn't seen that latest update until later. So yes
Cape Verde 06 could be bad.

[wxmann_91]

Interesting to note that SSTs are slightly above normal in this
area even though SSTAs have been on a downward trend

Well I don't know if you have seen this but SSTAs are back up for Dec.

YEAR MO SST ANOM
2004 12 27.56 0.95
2005 1 26.84 0.99
2005 2 26.52 1.06
2005 3 26.63 1.18
2005 4 26.75 0.96
2005 5 27.41 1.18
2005 6 27.82 1.19
2005 7 28.06 1.03
2005 8 28.46 0.92
2005 9 28.75 0.86
2005 10 28.57 0.72
2005 11 27.95 0.54
2005 12 27.37 0.76

Yes thanks I hadn't seen that latest update until later. So yes
Cape Verde 06 could be bad.

I want to remind everybody (not direct at you TBH), that SST's aren't what determine the CV season, SAL and shear do. If we have an anomalously strong eastern Atlantic ridge and an anomalously strong central Atlantic UL trough then it will be like this year (though I highly doubt that it'll be like that two years in a row), then even if eastern Atlantic SST's are record high, few CV storms will form.

[Windtalker1]

Interesting to note that SSTs are slightly above normal in this
area even though SSTAs have been on a downward trend

Well I don't know if you have seen this but SSTAs are back up for Dec.

YEAR MO SST ANOM
2004 12 27.56 0.95
2005 1 26.84 0.99
2005 2 26.52 1.06
2005 3 26.63 1.18
2005 4 26.75 0.96
2005 5 27.41 1.18
2005 6 27.82 1.19
2005 7 28.06 1.03
2005 8 28.46 0.92
2005 9 28.75 0.86
2005 10 28.57 0.72
2005 11 27.95 0.54
2005 12 27.37 0.76

Yes thanks I hadn't seen that latest update until later. So yes
Cape Verde 06 could be bad.

I want to remind everybody (not direct at you TBH), that SST's aren't what determine the CV season, SAL and shear do. If we have an anomalously strong eastern Atlantic ridge and an anomalously strong central Atlantic UL trough then it will be like this year (though I highly doubt that it'll be like that two years in a row), then even if eastern Atlantic SST's are record high, few CV storms will form.

Yah, they will all form closer to home like 2005 which is a "Bad Thing"