FWIW, TSR says 16, 8 and 4

[hurricanetrack]

Their January forecast is out:

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLFo ... an2006.pdf

Looks like 16, 8 and 4. Wow.

[mike815]

i agree though i think it will be even higher thanks for the post i forgot they do forecast predictions too.

[hurricanetrack]

Theirs is nice because it comes out once per month. Keeps us with something to look forward to....so to speak.

[mike815]

yeah i know what you mean. Thats cool. They too see very active above normal lanfalls this year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2006 will be a pretty wild year if that holds...not as bad as 05,
but crazy none the less

[mike815]

what not as bad it may be just as bad in the effects along the east coast the number storms doesnt matter if a 5 makes landfall that would be really bad and i think in numbers it will come close to 2005

[johngaltfla]

2006 will be a pretty wild year if that holds...not as bad as 05,
but crazy none the less

It doesn't matter TBH, if it's not "as bad as 05"; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Let's assume, for fear and discussion's sake, that a 2 hits Tampa Bay head on. Then 3 more hit nearby, all Cat 1's. That would be as bad as if not worse than one Charley. The cumulative damage our state has been taking is making it impossible and impractical to continue to live here.

This is going to hit the national economy in a major manner that many are in denial about. What happens when the now third largest state has a crash in real estate prices?

I say refer to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane as a starting point to answer that question. Except this time, it's no longer a small state with just swamps and orange groves. It will impact the national economy, IMHO.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Minor Point, but Florida is the 4th largest state, even after the 2004 estimate

[wxmann_91]

2006 will be a pretty wild year if that holds...not as bad as 05,
but crazy none the less

It doesn't matter TBH, if it's not "as bad as 05"; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Let's assume, for fear and discussion's sake, that a 2 hits Tampa Bay head on. Then 3 more hit nearby, all Cat 1's. That would be as bad as if not worse than one Charley. The cumulative damage our state has been taking is making it impossible and impractical to continue to live here.

This is going to hit the national economy in a major manner that many are in denial about. What happens when the now third largest state has a crash in real estate prices?

I say refer to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane as a starting point to answer that question. Except this time, it's no longer a small state with just swamps and orange groves. It will impact the national economy, IMHO.

Exactly. And a major in NYC will sink this country (and perhaps the world) into a major economic Depression. It's only a matter of time before this doomsday scenario strikes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2006 will be a pretty wild year if that holds...not as bad as 05,
but crazy none the less

It doesn't matter TBH, if it's not "as bad as 05"; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Let's assume, for fear and discussion's sake, that a 2 hits Tampa Bay head on. Then 3 more hit nearby, all Cat 1's. That would be as bad as if not worse than one Charley. The cumulative damage our state has been taking is making it impossible and impractical to continue to live here.

This is going to hit the national economy in a major manner that many are in denial about. What happens when the now third largest state has a crash in real estate prices?

I say refer to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane as a starting point to answer that question. Except this time, it's no longer a small state with just swamps and orange groves. It will impact the national economy, IMHO.

Exactly. And a major in NYC will sink this country (and perhaps the world) into a major economic Depression. It's only a matter of time before this doomsday scenario strikes.

yes you are right about location.

[johngaltfla]

2006 will be a pretty wild year if that holds...not as bad as 05,
but crazy none the less

It doesn't matter TBH, if it's not "as bad as 05"; it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Let's assume, for fear and discussion's sake, that a 2 hits Tampa Bay head on. Then 3 more hit nearby, all Cat 1's. That would be as bad as if not worse than one Charley. The cumulative damage our state has been taking is making it impossible and impractical to continue to live here.

This is going to hit the national economy in a major manner that many are in denial about. What happens when the now third largest state has a crash in real estate prices?

I say refer to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane as a starting point to answer that question. Except this time, it's no longer a small state with just swamps and orange groves. It will impact the national economy, IMHO.

Exactly. And a major in NYC will sink this country (and perhaps the world) into a major economic Depression. It's only a matter of time before this doomsday scenario strikes.

I fear we will all live to see this "doomsday scenario" in our lifetimes. We, as a nation, have failed to live up to the promises of the old CD division of our government and have paid no attention to history with the issuance of building permits.

NYC would be bad, but Miami and Tampa would impact residents of New York equally as bad.

[Cookiely]

Let's not forget a major economic impact in the GOM.