UNOFFICIAL..Zeta Forecast 9; merging in 3 days

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /zeta.html

Zeta is now barely a tropical storm, but still has a couple of days left, at least. This forecast merges the storm with the front and trough to the north and west in the next few days. Obviously, if the storm can maintain convection periodically, it would remain a tropical depression or weak tropical storm instead of weakening to a remnant low.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 7 now available.

Scott

[JonathanBelles]

wow is it just me or do late season to off season storms last longer?

[HURAKAN]

Zeta, defying in all aspects the NHC's forecasts, will probably last longer than what Alice lasted in 1954 - 1955.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Im still amazed that it is Jan. 3rd (a period when I would only be thinking of the tropics as "something to think about later") and we are seeing a long lived tropical cyclone! I wonder how long this thing will last. It may want to try and throw another record into 2005's bag. Has there ever been a hurricane in January, because if not...this one certainly has a chance.

[MGC]

I too think Zeta will be around a little longer than the NHC is forecastion. Looks to me to be in a crease between the shear zones.....MGC

[tropicana]

Im still amazed that it is Jan. 3rd (a period when I would only be thinking of the tropics as "something to think about later") and we are seeing a long lived tropical cyclone! I wonder how long this thing will last. It may want to try and throw another record into 2005's bag. Has there ever been a hurricane in January, because if not...this one certainly has a chance.

From what I read, Hurricane Alice was around in January of 1955 but developed into a hurricane late on December 31st 1954... therefore, if ZETA were to become a hurricane...it would be the first Hurricane ever to FORM during the month of January in the Atlantic Ocean.

-justin-

[WindRunner]

12/31 at 12Z was the adviosry it became a cane, and was for 4 days. Tracking data below.

Date: 30 DEC-6 JAN 1954
Hurricane ALICE2
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 22.10 -50.90 12/30/06Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 22.00 -51.60 12/30/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
3 21.60 -52.40 12/30/18Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
4 21.30 -53.30 12/31/00Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
5 21.00 -54.30 12/31/06Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
6 20.60 -55.20 12/31/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
7 20.30 -56.00 12/31/18Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
8 20.10 -56.80 01/01/00Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
9 19.90 -57.40 01/01/06Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
10 19.70 -58.10 01/01/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
11 19.30 -59.20 01/01/18Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
12 18.80 -60.50 01/02/00Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
13 18.40 -61.60 01/02/06Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
14 18.00 -62.40 01/02/12Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
15 17.80 -62.80 01/02/18Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
16 17.60 -63.20 01/03/00Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
17 17.30 -63.60 01/03/06Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
18 17.00 -64.00 01/03/12Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
19 16.50 -64.70 01/03/18Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
20 16.00 -65.30 01/04/00Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
21 15.50 -65.20 01/04/06Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
22 15.10 -64.90 01/04/12Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
23 14.70 -64.40 01/04/18Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
24 14.40 -64.00 01/05/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
25 14.00 -63.60 01/05/06Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
26 13.60 -63.30 01/05/12Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
27 13.30 -63.10 01/05/18Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 13.00 -63.00 01/06/00Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
29 12.80 -63.00 01/06/06Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[ncweatherwizard]

I forgot to post #8 last night, but Forecast 9 is up--link at the top.

Scott