Do you think Zeta will live longer then Alice?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you think Zeta will live pass Alice of 1955? Will it live pass the 6th of January.

[NCHurricane]

Sure, why not?

Anything is possible this, uh, last year, err, these years.

[HURAKAN]

ALMOST 100% SURE!

[Brent]

Yes.

[WxGuy1]

ALMOST 100% SURE!

I'm not that confident. There are two things we've seen with tropical cyclones that have originated from upper-level troughs/lows:

1. They can persist and even intensify if conditions that seem unconducive for development (relatively cold SSTs and relatively high shear). The NHC and models tend to bust forecasts with these types of cyclones (Zeta, Epsilon, and Vince, for example). The NHC has called for weakening since it's initial advisory (up until this morning), and all models (save the GFDL) have weakened the storm under moderate/strong shear and cool SSTs.

2. Storms such as these (Zeta, Epsilon, etc) can fall apart very rapidly. How fast did it take Epsilon to go from moderate tropical storm to remnant/dissipating low? It seems that if the shear intensifies to some point, the mid-level and low-level circulations become displaced, and the storm rapidly falls apart.

Given the lack of a good historical database for these types of tropical cyclones, and the NHC/model track record with storms like Zeta and Epsilon, I would be very hesitant to say you're "almost 100% sure" about anything regarding the intensity of Zeta. I think there's a chance Zeta could last beyond 1-6-06, but to assign any sort of high probability would imply that I understand these types of cyclones in ways that few others do.

Tonight, convection has weakened signficantly, and Zeta certainly doesn't look like it did 24 hours ago!

[WindRunner]

I voted yes, but that was right before I saw what it looked like this morning. Now, I'm not so sure.

[JonathanBelles]

im pretty sure this one well any late season storm will last long

[WxGuy1]

2. Storms such as these (Zeta, Epsilon, etc) can fall apart very rapidly. How fast did it take Epsilon to go from moderate tropical storm to remnant/dissipating low? It seems that if the shear intensifies to some point, the mid-level and low-level circulations become displaced, and the storm rapidly falls apart.

And this appears to be what is happening... I believe the latest models initialized at 30kts, and it appears Zeta may be gone tomorrow. Again, these things are considerably more unpredictable than "typical" tropical cyclones. Yes, there all TCs, but this again shows how tough it is to forecast for tropical cyclones w/ origins in upper troughs/lows. They do tend to be more vigorous (in terms of dealing with the lower SSTs and higher shear), yet they also tend to dissipate rather rapidly. Zeta lived much like Epsilon, with unforecast gain in strengths, resilience against weakening, and rapid weakening at the end of its lifetime.

[Extremeweatherguy]

2. Storms such as these (Zeta, Epsilon, etc) can fall apart very rapidly. How fast did it take Epsilon to go from moderate tropical storm to remnant/dissipating low? It seems that if the shear intensifies to some point, the mid-level and low-level circulations become displaced, and the storm rapidly falls apart.

And this appears to be what is happening... I believe the latest models initialized at 30kts, and it appears Zeta may be gone tomorrow. Again, these things are considerably more unpredictable than "typical" tropical cyclones. Yes, there all TCs, but this again shows how tough it is to forecast for tropical cyclones w/ origins in upper troughs/lows. They do tend to be more vigorous (in terms of dealing with the lower SSTs and higher shear), yet they also tend to dissipate rather rapidly. Zeta lived much like Epsilon, with unforecast gain in strengths, resilience against weakening, and rapid weakening at the end of its lifetime.

latest infrared loop shows that the convection may be building back on Zeta's NE side a little. I think there is still hope left for it.

[mike815]

there is still hope Zeta is coming back to life one last time!

[HURAKAN]

It seems Zeta is fighting very hard to remain alive!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moved into more favorable area with sustenance through
partially sub-optimal sst and shear conditions

[Margie]

If you change the question to

"Will Zeta live longer than Alice?"

I'll say yes.