Can You Imagine Years Like This?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We are starting to get more of a La nina pattern...Which will produce a season like 2004. But this season will have over 20 named storms...I expect to see Ivans this year,Hugo's,Isabels,Wilma's,1926s hurricanes,Labar days hurricanes. But thats the way its going. I think 2006 is going to make 2005 look like it did to 2004.

[Ivanhater]

ya, good point...i think there were some monster storms during that time

Actually, I think there were MANY monster storms during that time, especially Category Four storms. Also, the period likely extended well before the 1400s, since no European sailors are known to have explored or documented storms before Christopher Columbus. Do you agree?

yep, just from reading on some of the past hurricanes in my area during that time really shows what was going on then, and that was just in my area, most likely just as bad all over the basin

[TexasStooge]

All I can say is....CRAZY!!!

[wxmann_91]

We are starting to get more of a La nina pattern...Which will produce a season like 2004. But this season will have over 20 named storms...I expect to see Ivans this year,Hugo's,Isabels,Wilma's,1926s hurricanes,Labar days hurricanes. But thats the way its going. I think 2006 is going to make 2005 look like it did to 2004.

Oh God no!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

yep, just from reading on some of the past hurricanes in my area during that time really shows what was going on then, and that was just in my area, most likely just as bad all over the basin

It was bad all over the Atlantic Basin, especially in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

yep, just from reading on some of the past hurricanes in my area during that time really shows what was going on then, and that was just in my area, most likely just as bad all over the basin

It was bad all over the Atlantic Basin, especially in the Caribbean.

i just dont see the next few years being any different, the U.S coast will continue to get battered by monster hurricanes

[MiamiensisWx]

i just dont see the next few years being any different, the U.S coast will continue to get battered by monster hurricanes

It may even well be much longer than a few years.

[Ivanhater]

i just dont see the next few years being any different, the U.S coast will continue to get battered by monster hurricanes

It may even well be much longer than a few years.

very good possibility

[MiamiensisWx]

very good possibility

I agree!

[Ivanhater]

very good possibility

I agree!

i know you do cause i was agreeing with you, lol

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep!

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Well, 1954 was one of the worst hurricane seasons of the 1933-1969 activity period, with Carol, Edna, and Hazel all making landfall, and then Alice2 formed Dec. 30 and went into 1955......1955's 4 retired storms were Connie, Diane, Ione, and Cat5 Janet. I don't like that analogy.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, 1954 was one of the worst hurricane seasons of the 1933-1969 activity period, with Carol, Edna, and Hazel all making landfall, and then Alice2 formed Dec. 30 and went into 1955......1955's 4 retired storms were Connie, Diane, Ione, and Cat5 Janet. I don't like that analogy.

I was not referring to THOSE activity periods. I was referring to a long stretch of high activity from long before the 1400s to the 1800s.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

We know so little about these cycles. We only have somewhat accurate records dating back roughly 150 years. I imagine you would need them dating back 500 to maybe several 1000s years to get a real picture of the cycles that control these monsters! Hell we are not even completely sure what controls these storms intensity. Yet some people are screaming global warming from the roof tops

[Astro_man92]

We know so little about these cycles. We only have somewhat accurate records dating back roughly 150 years. I imagine you would need them dating back 500 to maybe several 1000s years to get a real picture of the cycles that control these monsters! Hell we are not even completely sure what controls these storms intensity. Yet some people are screaming global warming from the roof tops

I've heard that we know more about the surface of mars then we know about the ocean floor on our own planet. So ... I bet we know more about outer space in general then we know about our own planet.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... we know very little about these cycles.

[EDR1222]

Some of the researchers at the NHC talk about the changes in steering currents and how they might run for certain lengths of time similar to slow and active cyclone activity cycles. We sure have seen a change the past couple of years. That is definately not a long enough period to say for sure, but it will be interesting to see what unfolds.

[dhweather]

All of this puts the efforts of Christopher Columbus and others into
perspective. God only knows how many ships set sail blindly, only to run
into a tropical system in the open Atlantic. No GPS, no radar,
no satellite. yowza!

[MiamiensisWx]

All of this puts the efforts of Christopher Columbus and others into
perspective. God only knows how many ships set sail blindly, only to run
into a tropical system in the open Atlantic. No GPS, no radar,
no satellite. yowza!

I agree. Those years had likely many more storms than we have had in this entire active period since it started in 1995. This proves that things can get much, much worse. Also, look how many storms struck near what is now New Orleans during that long period.

[caribepr]

All of this puts the efforts of Christopher Columbus and others into
perspective. God only knows how many ships set sail blindly, only to run
into a tropical system in the open Atlantic. No GPS, no radar,
no satellite. yowza!

I agree. Those years had likely many more storms than we have had in this entire active period since it started in 1995. This proves that things can get much, much worse. Also, look how many storms struck near what is now New Orleans during that long period.

This has been a GREAT discussion! As I was reading the posts I was thinking about exactly what dhweather posted...how much more aware we can be now, even with the inexactness of the science, we are so much further ahead than those who went headlong into they didn't know what. At least we know SOMETHING might be heading our way, whether we know for sure the exact landfall location or intensity.
When I was sailing in the Med, I felt like an early explorer, one minute the forecast was *smooth sailing* and the next, force 8 stuff out of nowhere, totally different than anything I'd ever experienced before. Those guys were brave! Or crazy Or both. Hmmmm....
All I know is, the year and years ahead may be as bad or worse, they may be better (we've been incredibly lucky here and we know it, seriously know it), but the only thing to do is have a plan.
My brother (South Fla) sent me an article today about how many people were taking one way U Haul trailers out of S. Fla, even while developers are planning massive, expensive condos and homes. The hurricanes are putting people in the mind of leaving for safer and less (insurance) expensive places. Maybe that is THEIR plan; regardless, we all need to have one and stick to it and personally, I think it should be worked on all year, not starting June 1st. A number of posters here mentioned that on a limited income, it's hard to stock up, but were met with what I think is a really good idea (and one I have used for years)...buy that extra can of whatever while it's on sale, look for deals on batteries, plywood, propane stoves, generators, etc. and stash them, leaving you a way to come into the season feeling as ready as possible, instead of freaking out and having to be in long lines without perhaps finding what you need. There is really NO need to EVER have to panic if you live in a hurricane prone area as far as being prepared is concerned (in the actual reality of the worst...panic is fear is reality). If the worst happens, no preps will be enough, but if it is less than the worst, you can not only take care of yourself and your loved ones, you will have extra to share (anyone who loves camping knows there is always that person who seems to remember all the little stuff you forgot...that isn't by chance, it's by plan).
Sorry for the long post, but I really loved the discussion and now my response is out of my system! Gracias!