La Nina Developing In Pacific?
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La Nina Developing In Pacific?
Pardon me for not having the graphs,but I read on another site that a La Nina is beginning to pop up in the Pacific.If thats true,we've got another bad cane season on the way
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HURAKAN
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I THINK THIS IS THE LATEST!
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
December 8, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are likely during the next 6-9 months.
By the end of November, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were restricted to the region between Indonesia and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between 145ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in the Niño 4 region (Fig. 2). During the last several months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies have decreased in the region between 180ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 3). During the same period persistent stronger-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds were observed over the central Pacific, while near-average patterns of convection and sea level pressure occurred over most of the tropical Pacific. Collectively, the present oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a trend toward La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates some uncertainty in the outlooks (Fig. 4). However, current conditions (stronger-than-average easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific) and recent observed trends (decreasing SST anomalies throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) do not support the development of El Niño. Rather, they support either a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions or the development of weak La Niña conditions.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 January 2006. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
December 8, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are likely during the next 6-9 months.
By the end of November, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were restricted to the region between Indonesia and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between 145ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in the Niño 4 region (Fig. 2). During the last several months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies have decreased in the region between 180ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 3). During the same period persistent stronger-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds were observed over the central Pacific, while near-average patterns of convection and sea level pressure occurred over most of the tropical Pacific. Collectively, the present oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a trend toward La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates some uncertainty in the outlooks (Fig. 4). However, current conditions (stronger-than-average easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific) and recent observed trends (decreasing SST anomalies throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) do not support the development of El Niño. Rather, they support either a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions or the development of weak La Niña conditions.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 January 2006. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
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x-y-no
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A couple of weeks ago it really looked like we were verging on La Niña, but we never quite got out of neutral, and the trend seems to have stopped for now.
Overall things look like they'll be stable for some time - the western warm pool is biased further west than it was last year.
It's worth noting that while El Niño strongly suppresses Atlantic cyclones, there's not much difference between neutral and La Niña conditions in that respect.
Equatorial depth profile:
Overall things look like they'll be stable for some time - the western warm pool is biased further west than it was last year.
It's worth noting that while El Niño strongly suppresses Atlantic cyclones, there's not much difference between neutral and La Niña conditions in that respect.
Equatorial depth profile:
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terstorm1012
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Jim Hughes
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