As bad as this season was... 1893 MUCH worse

[Derek Ortt]

As bad as this season was, it still fell far short of the horrific season of 1893.

That year we had one cane striking near New Orleans, killing 2,000. Later, we had 2,000 more dead from the Georgia/SC cane. On top of that, a cat 2 scored a direct hit on NYC, causing terrible damage.

That is a season I am glad we have not seen since, especially with the increased development there

[MGC]

How high was the surge in the NYC hit Dereck?.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure of the exact heights, but I believe that the Hudson and east Rivers merged from the surge

[wxmann_91]

I'm not sure of the exact heights, but I believe that the Hudson and east Rivers merged from the surge

That would be bad.

I don't remember, but there was this show I saw that told the surge, and I remember they said it was pretty bad, I think about 15-20 ft. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention it came at low tide.

[Derek Ortt]

tidal ranges wont matter in a low end 3 of similar intensity to katrina. In fact, unless the cane is moving at 50 m.p.h., I would NOT want this hitting at dead low tide as all that means is that the previous high tide gets trapped near the coast when TS winds come in, and then the surge comes on top of the trapped high tide, which is what happend in Fran.

The rivers merged during an 1821 hurricane, though 1893 also flattened large parts of the city.

A Katrina intensity storm for NYC will result in a death toll that will likely exceed that from the Battle of Gettysberg

[Ivanhater]

tidal ranges wont matter in a low end 3 of similar intensity to katrina. In fact, unless the cane is moving at 50 m.p.h., I would NOT want this hitting at dead low tide as all that means is that the previous high tide gets trapped near the coast when TS winds come in, and then the surge comes on top of the trapped high tide, which is what happend in Fran.

The rivers merged during an 1821 hurricane, though 1893 also flattened large parts of the city.

A Katrina intensity storm for NYC will result in a death toll that will likely exceed that from the Battle of Gettysberg

holy #@%$

[Extremeweatherguy]

In terms of numbers though, this season was much worse. We have had 27 storms! That beats the 1933 record by 4 (not 1...but 4)! In terms of widespread impacts 1893 may have been worse...but 1900 may have been THE worst with over 8000 killed on Galveston island by a surprise Category 4. The city was leveled. I think there are many seasons we can consider the absolute worst...but really I think they are all bad in thier own right. After living through 6 or 7 Hurricanes in my life (not including 3 or 4 Tropical Storms), with 3 times in an eyewall, and all 3 of those times during the 2004 season in Florida; I know just how bad hurricanes can be. Going weeks without power, water, schooling, an open restaurant. It is very hard...so I think everybody's worst season is that season when THEY were affected. Since no one alive today can remember 1893, it really can be no ones worst season. All I hope for 2006 is that it ends up being no ones worst season. In fact, I hope it is many peoples best season. I will continue to hope this rings true, but looking at the trend of the last 2 years; you can never be too sure. Either way we still have 5 months to go before we have to worry about any of that (the exception would be Zeta which is currently spinning in the eastern atlantic).

[thunderchief]

Is it possible to get a 920 mb storm into the confined, relatively cool waters off new york?

Its not a coincidence that the NY became the largest city in the US... its a large well protected anchorage...

[george_r_1961]

Is it possible to get a 920 mb storm into the confined, relatively cool waters off new york?

Its not a coincidence that the NY became the largest city in the US... its a large well protected anchorage...

I think its not very likely but certainly not impossible. A fast moving large intense storm could very well cause this scenario.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it possible to get a 920 mb storm into the confined, relatively cool waters off new york?

Its not a coincidence that the NY became the largest city in the US... its a large well protected anchorage...

I think its not very likely but certainly not impossible. A fast moving large intense storm could very well cause this scenario.

By the time it got to NYC though it would probably be in a weakening stage. A storm that is rapidly weakening is a lot LESS worse than a storm that is rapidly strengthening at landfall. They find that strengthening storms can have higher winds than forecast at landfall, and weakening ones may have lower winds. For example, a strengthening 120mph storm may have reports of 115-125mph winds sustained at landfall with gusts to 140-150mph. A weakening 120mph storm may only see top sustained winds reported being near 100mph with top gusts near 110-120mph. A great example of this is with Dennis. At landfall it supposedly had 120mph winds, but most recorded winds were only near 90-100mph sustained with top gusts only near 123mph.

[wxmann_91]

Is it possible to get a 920 mb storm into the confined, relatively cool waters off new york?

Its not a coincidence that the NY became the largest city in the US... its a large well protected anchorage...

I think its not very likely but certainly not impossible. A fast moving large intense storm could very well cause this scenario.

By the time it got to NYC though it would probably be in a weakening stage. A storm that is rapidly weakening is a lot LESS worse than a storm that is rapidly strengthening at landfall. They find that strengthening storms can have higher winds than forecast at landfall, and weakening ones may have lower winds. For example, a strengthening 120mph storm may have reports of 115-125mph winds sustained at landfall with gusts to 140-150mph. A weakening 120mph storm may only see top sustained winds reported being near 100mph with top gusts near 110-120mph. A great example of this is with Dennis. At landfall it supposedly had 120mph winds, but most recorded winds were only near 90-100mph sustained with top gusts only near 123mph.

Wind-wise, yes. Surge-wise, a weakening storm is worse. Look at Katrina. And in NYC it will all be about the surge (15 ft for even a Cat 1).

[Derek Ortt]

but the tidal surge would likely be somewhat higher in the weakening cyclone, especially for NYC when the storm would be flying along the shelf waters the entire way up the East Coast, meaning that a cat 2 could produce a cat 4 surge with cat 4 waves on top (instead of like an Isabel where we had a cat 2 surge with cat 3 waves)

The water is the most dangerous aspect of an NYC major hurricane

[Brent]

Is it possible to get a 920 mb storm into the confined, relatively cool waters off new york?

Its not a coincidence that the NY became the largest city in the US... its a large well protected anchorage...

After this past season... I'd say anything is possible, though I'd think unlikely. I could see a 920-930 mb Cat 3(like Katrina) that's large and has an enormous surge... and it doesn't have to be massive to be destructive to the NYC metro.

[tomboudreau]

You need not to forget, when storms start heading north of Cape Hatteras, and are heading towards New England/New York City area, these storms are usually booking it. They usually have forward speeds greater then 25 miles per hour. Just some food for thought on what a system would be doing as it heads for New York City and New England.