A Tropical Wave?

[cycloneye]

OTHER SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO NOTE ARE A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 56 WEST AND A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR 25 NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE WAVE MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A SURGE IN THE SURFACE WINDS AFFECTING
THE REGION...MAINLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A
QUICK SCAT PASS NEAR 22Z ON THE 31ST CLEARLY DEPICTED THE WAVE AND
REVEALED WINDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

The above is an extract from the San Juan NWS Discussion.However TPC does not mention at all that wave.It's interesting that it has been a fairly wet first day of 2006 here in the Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands area maybe an indirect effect from this wave/or surface trough.To note is that tropical waves are all year long in the atlantic but at this time they are weak and below 10n.By the way the ITCZ has been active in recent days.



View of the ITCZ.

[Ivanhater]

i think the gfs was hinting at some development in the nw Caribbean in the coming days, might be picking up on the activity.

[cycloneye]

The odd thing is that I am posting about this in January which I never thought of doing or haved done in past years at this time.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is unreal. Those tropical waves look
very active...UNREAL for January.

[txwatcher91]

The one aroun 10N 55W looks like it could develop as long as the shear stays low(I don't know if it in a favorable or not as far as shear goes). It is quite amazing how we have very active tropical waves like this in January.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is absolutely insane! Talk about active cycles- the Atlantic
is in some super-active cycle.

[txwatcher91]

This is absolutely insane! Talk about active cycles- the Atlantic
is in some super-active cycle.

I agree.You usually don't get that much activity around and slightly above 10N this time of year. I fear that 2006 hurricane season could easily surpass 2005 in terms of named storms.

[Ivanhater]

i have a feeling were are gonna see some activity in the coming days

[cjrciadt]

It's winter and the first month of year right? 80f outside here.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

One of these waves may organize into a more well-defined feature...
IF WE SEE LESSENING SHEAR:
"Alberto" coming into existance would not surprise me...Alberto
in 4-6 days potentially....a short-lived and weak tropical storm that
could thrive before the shear gets it.

[MiamiensisWx]

One of these waves may organize into a more well-defined feature...
IF WE SEE LESSENING SHEAR:
"Alberto" coming into existance would not surprise me...Alberto
in 4-6 days potentially....a short-lived and weak tropical storm that
could thrive before the shear gets it.

DON'T USE THE WORD "WEAK"!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

One of these waves may organize into a more well-defined feature...
IF WE SEE LESSENING SHEAR:
"Alberto" coming into existance would not surprise me...Alberto
in 4-6 days potentially....a short-lived and weak tropical storm that
could thrive before the shear gets it.

DON'T USE THE WORD "WEAK"!

By weak I mean "low-end"
but yes I'll say: 40-50 mph tropical storm

[Weatherfreak14]

One of these waves may organize into a more well-defined feature...
IF WE SEE LESSENING SHEAR:
"Alberto" coming into existance would not surprise me...Alberto
in 4-6 days potentially....a short-lived and weak tropical storm that
could thrive before the shear gets it.

DON'T USE THE WORD "WEAK"!

By weak I mean "low-end"
but yes I'll say: 40-50 mph tropical storm

I agree, this will probably be alberyto.

[wxcrazytwo]

OKY, IF THIS DEVELOPS, THEN NO ONE HEAR CAN SAY IT IS NOT RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Remember though we were in an Ice Age that lasted roughly 50,000 years up until between 12,000 - 10,000 years about. Only stand to reason that the planet would still be heating up. I dispute that it is man that is causing this. Because there were no cars in past warm periods, but they still got much hotter than today.

[WindRunner]

OKY, IF THIS DEVELOPS, THEN NO ONE HEAR CAN SAY IT IS NOT RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING.

I think I still will say it isn't, but this isn't the place to argue it.

[HURAKAN]

OKY, IF THIS DEVELOPS, THEN NO ONE HEAR CAN SAY IT IS NOT RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING.

I think I still will say it isn't, but this isn't the place to argue it.

Global Warming is a topic that shouldn't be discussed in this thread. But I will say that if this develops then I will be a lot more surprised because of its tropical nature than if another Zeta-like system develops.

[cycloneye]

Let's refrain from the global warming issue here.Any comments about that hot issue can be posted at Global Weather forum or at his topic here at talking tropics.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 20&start=0

[wxcrazytwo]

That is fine, but why are we scared of talking about it. Hiding it in another forum or thread only adds to why things are happening in the tropics. If this thing develops, then we have to look at OTHER reasons why it did. Let's not become scared of topics as "GW" because it is not the place. JMHO.

[Ivanhater]

wave still hanging in their