This is the latest update from the ENSO Models which by a vast majority are neutral going all the way thru August even some of them predicting a weak la nina for the first 3 months of 2006.Below is a portion of the discussion about the latest update:
COMMENTARY:
The central to eastern tropical Pacific has been cooling gradually over several months, with a band of intensifying negative anomalies extending westward along the equator from the South American coast. The cooling has not passed La Niña thresholds so at this stage the ENSO situation is still neutral. The western Pacific has only cooled slightly. The latest weekly values of the Pacific NINO indices show the NINO4 (western Pacific) value is +0.3°C, while the NINO3.4 (central Pacific) and NINO3 (eastern Pacific) values are −0.4°C and −0.6°C respectively. Nearly all the computer forecast models in the table above predict continuing cooler than average temperatures in the eastern to central Pacific up until about March or April 2006. Half the models predict La Niña conditions during the first three or four months of 2006, with one model extending the cool conditions to the middle of the year.
but the most important thing is the first time in recent months the cool word appears more than one time in a model.