Can we clone Delta?

[WindRunner]

Some of the longer-range GFS setups are interesting. The following images are hours 96-120 of the 11/23 18z GFS run.








As you have probably seen, the model elongates Delta and creates a second, dueling low that eventually strengthens to be stronger than Delta and a look further down the road shows the new low heading a little south of west, and weakening NE of the islands (before turning around again and becoming a strong ET storm), while Delta/remnants divide once again.




So we could have an interesting end to the season here, folks!

[cjrciadt]

Once again I say, What the??????

[HURAKAN]

WE MAY GET TWIN EPSILON!!!!

[mike815]

whoa very interesting. hmm... that would be something.

[JamesFromMaine2]

November is getting just as busy as every other month this season! I wonder if we will finally see the end of the season in December? well I guess either way we will since the season will end one way or another on December 31st! lol I wonder if we will have an early start to 2006? lol

[wxmann_91]

The GFS is more than likely on crack, nonetheless, good observation WindRunner.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The GFS is more than likely on crack, nonetheless, good observation WindRunner.

Well even the NHC talks about it so I guess they think it could happen but for right now its wait and see what happens! lol

[fuzzyblow]

WE MAY GET TWIN EPSILON!!!!

HAHAHA,,, sonds good to hell when you say that... - A cigar father ?

[SamSagnella]

The 00z GFS maintains this solution, with the basic pattern (though still several days out) consisting of a mid-level ridge
centered to the north of our pot'l cyclone and a trough digging down along the eastern seaboard and pushing east.
This would suggest the most likely track would be one that moves the system slowly to the west before recurving it
to the NE somewhere in the general vicinity of Bermuda in 5-7 days.

Of course this is nowhere near set-in-stone, but should this scenario pan out then we face yet another interesting week weatherwise.

[WindRunner]

12z 11/24 GFS has such strange occurances, I'm not sure what to think. I'll just describe and give a link, as the drama is stretched out over days 4-8 now. The low splits and forms two equally weak lows around 96hrs (Link 1), and plays with them through 144hrs, where a third low joins and forms three very weak lows all lined up (Link 2). By 162 hrs, the first (middle) low has been absorbed by the second one (far east) and the third low has split itself to form a fourth. (Link 3) The third and fourth lows reconsolidate while a fifth low forms just east of the Canary Islands and gets absorbed into this combination, and go on to be a powerful ET low which is stalled and becomes a seemingly subtropical low around Day 10 and possibly tropical around Day 11. The other low just NE of the islands weakens to a trough around the time the fifth low forms, and does nothing else. That's what I got out of it, along with the fact that the GFS can be considered a rather bad model for late season tropical development.

(For those who want to see all of it, link to GFS run page)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[cjrciadt]

12z 11/24 GFS has such strange occurances, I'm not sure what to think. I'll just describe and give a link, as the drama is stretched out over days 4-8 now. The low splits and forms two equally weak lows around 96hrs (Link 1), and plays with them through 144hrs, where a third low joins and forms three very weak lows all lined up (Link 2). By 162 hrs, the first (middle) low has been absorbed by the second one (far east) and the third low has split itself to form a fourth. (Link 3) The third and fourth lows reconsolidate while a fifth low forms just east of the Canary Islands and gets absorbed into this combination, and go on to be a powerful ET low which is stalled and becomes a seemingly subtropical low around Day 10 and possibly tropical around Day 11. The other low just NE of the islands weakens to a trough around the time the fifth low forms, and does nothing else. That's what I got out of it, along with the fact that the GFS can be considered a rather bad model for late season tropical development.

(For those who want to see all of it, link to GFS run page)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Crazy GFS with all those lows...