Where do you expect development in November?

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 8:11 am

We know November is not a very active month in the tropics to say the least. But development can occur in localized areas from tropical waves, in the case of the Caribbean, and from cold fronts that come from the North Pole. Therefore I ask you, according to climatology or your own opinion, where do you think it will be most likely for a storm to develop in the month of November?

November Storms over the last 10 Years:

1996 - Marco (Cat. 1) Caribbean
1998 - Nicole (Cat. 1) E. Atlantic
1999 - Lenny (Cat. 4) Caribbean
2001 - Noel (Cat. 1) N. Atlantic
2001 - Olga (Cat. 1) S. Bermuda
2004 - Otto (TS) C. Atlantic

#2 Postby **TheEuropean** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 8:22 am

I voted the Caribbean. Water in GoM is getting colder and a big persisting high is blocking the atlantic for the next time. So only region where a storm may form is the central to western Caribbean Sea.

quandary · #3 Postby **quandary** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:06 am

Hm... I guess I really meant to say the Bermuda area. Basically, we're either going to see a tropical system out of the Carribean or a hybrid cross-over in the North-central Atlantic.

Gulf is the least likely of all places to have a storm now, I think, given the atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

#4 Postby **sponger** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 12:41 pm

I had forgotten all about Lenny! God help us if we get another major! Highly unlikely, but this season has beaten the odds every time you bet against it!

WindRunner · #5 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 5:43 pm

Caribbean, though we have a decent chance of one between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda.

Patrick99 · #6 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri Nov 04, 2005 11:03 pm

Caribbean and central Atlantic.

About the Caribbean.....is it true that the Caribbean could conceivably support tropical development year-round, were it not for the usually unfavorable upper-level winds that occur there in the winter and springtime?

I wonder that if our "warm phase" persists over many years - possibly enhanced by global warming or what have you - that there will be a need to officially extend the Atlantic hurricane season to year-round, as it is in the WPAC.

hurricanefreak1988 · #7 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:29 pm

Gotta look to the Carribean. This is their time of the season to shine.

Jim Cantore · #8 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Nov 05, 2005 11:33 pm

Caribbean but I wouldnt be shocked to see one in the gulf

More likely though for it to move in from the caribbean like an Arlene like track