tell me what is going on here with the models

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weatherwoman
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tell me what is going on here with the models

#1 Postby weatherwoman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:10 am

what is the gfni model and nhc98 model they are bringing wilma into nc
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#2 Postby weatherwoman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:12 am

also conu brings it into the outerbanks
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Re: tell me what is going on here with the models

#3 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:14 am

weatherwoman wrote:what is the gfni model and nhc98 model they are bringing wilma into nc


GFNI is the GFDL tropical model run off of the Navy NOGAPS grid.

NHC98 is not a model at all, it's purely statistical based on past tracks.
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#4 Postby weatherwoman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:17 am

ok thanks for that but why would they be having it coming across nc/sc border. noone has even said anything like that until i looked at it this morning
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#5 Postby Wacahootaman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:24 am

Last I looked, NOGAPS had Wilma crossing central Florida and hitting Carolina and phasing into a big storm in the NE.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005102000
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#6 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:33 am

weatherwoman wrote:ok thanks for that but why would they be having it coming across nc/sc border. noone has even said anything like that until i looked at it this morning


I haven't looked at the NOGAPS this morning yet, but my guess would be that it's faster bringing the system out of the tropics, and that gets it up there in time to phase with the front earlier than the consensus would have it.

This is certainly possible, but I think a slower solution is more likely.

NHC98, on the other hand, is simply taking a statistical look at climatology. The only reason that is plotted at all is to evaluate skill of the models relative to climatology.
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#7 Postby weathermom » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:49 am

Wacahootaman wrote:Last I looked, NOGAPS had Wilma crossing central Florida and hitting Carolina and phasing into a big storm in the NE.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005102000


:eek: :eek: :eek: I don't like the look of that!! My river is still rather full from last weeks rain. That is looking downright scary for the Northeast!
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#8 Postby dcuevas » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:51 am

It looks like the Navy Model has it coming right between Tampa and Naples. Am I reading this wrong? Getting a little freaked out in Tampa :lol:
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#9 Postby weatherwoman » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:15 pm

what is the conu it now has it crossing carteret county nc thats where i live so does ngps hum tell me what you think
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#10 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 1:42 pm

so Wilma can have a second us landfall at SC/NC
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