Basic Question on the Models

[T'Bonz]

I see reference to 00Z, 006Z runs, etc.

Could someone dummy this down for me? Does it correspond to Greenwich Mean Time?

If not, what does it translate to in real time. I was looking at the models (someone provided a good link earlier) and they said 00Z runs Oct 19th.

That corresponds to what?

Thanks.

[jax]

subtract 4 hours to get east coast time....

[SamSagnella]

00z on October 19 is 8pm EDT (7PM EST [daylight saving time is almost over]) -- it corresponds generally to Greenwich Mean Time...UTC to be precise.

[T'Bonz]

OK, here is the link I had: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It says 00Z...but how can that be if it's not 8 PM my time.

I'm having trouble figuring out what time the run is in my time.

Sorry to be so dense.

[wsquared77]

I also have a couple of basic questions about the models, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread. How often do the models run? Also, what would cause a model to make such a dramatic shift like the GFDL has? I've read some suggestions that it could be reading bad data and that we'd have to wait until the next run to see if it keeps projecting this new path.

[x-y-no]

OK, here is the link I had: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It says 00Z...but how can that be if it's not 8 PM my time.

I'm having trouble figuring out what time the run is in my time.

Sorry to be so dense.

That's last night's 0Z run of the GFS. In other words, the initialization time (0 hour frame) of that run was 8pm EDT last night.

The GFS is run 4 times per day. Each run usually completes about 4 hours or a little more after the initialization time. So, for instance, the 18Z run should begin rolling out about 15 or 20 minutes from now.

[x-y-no]

I also have a couple of basic questions about the models, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread. How often do the models run? Also, what would cause a model to make such a dramatic shift like the GFDL has? I've read some suggestions that it could be reading bad data and that we'd have to wait until the next run to see if it keeps projecting this new path.

Some global models, like the GFS, run four times a day. Others, like the ECMWF and the UKMET run twice a day (0Z and 12Z).

The tropics specific models, like the various GFD models,the MM5s, the BAMs etc. are run off of the grids produced by the global models, so they will generally come out later.

As to what would cause a big shift ... there's a number of things. The GFDL runs off of the GFS grid, so when the 12Z GFS was slower with the storm, the GFDL picked up on that. But while the GFS still made the connection with the trough, the GFDL missed it, which led to this particular big shift.

Hope that helps a little.

[wsquared77]

Definitely. Thank you! This is certainly going to be interesting to watch...