Western Caribbean/Gulf of Honduras Thread

[rockyman]

Since there is not much to talk about in the western Atlantic (for those interested in areas that might affect the CONUS), I thought I'd open up a thread for this tiny area in the NW Caribbean.

Here's what the 2pm TWD had to say:
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 18N84.5W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW DUE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR.

Convection appears to be dying out during the day...we'll see if it refires overnight.



Looks like a light steering environment for now:


Sheer is fairly light:


Lacking low level convergence (hence, convection is dying out):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

But is developing upper divergence:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.html

Bottom line: Probably nothing at all...but it is in the right place for this time of year. Comments welcome!