MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 092321ZOCT2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZOCT2005//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.8N 135.3E TO 24.3N 132.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 092130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.9N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.9N
135.0E HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 22.9N 134.9E BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092053Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND
A 092123Z SSM/I IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME SUPERPOSED
WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, LOW TO
MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE RECENT ALIGNMENT OF THE LLCC AND CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 102330Z.//
Looks good on sat pic.Will it be system #21 of the WPAC?