Active Morning! Tropical Low has formed 8N 35W

#1 Postby **drezee** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:00 am

Visible shots this morning are pretty clear in the existence of a LLC.

For Visibles:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:08 am

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_lc.jpg

A closeup view of that system.Hyperstorm what is your take on this system?

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:15 am

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 35W S
OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED JUST S OF 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

8 AM Discussion of wave.MLC there.

Hyperstorm · #4 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:37 am

Cycloneye...

I've been monitoring this system since it left the coast of Africa as a very well-defined tropical wave. The system showed signs of flaring up and becoming better organized 2 days ago, but yesterday the overall structure and convection fizzled. It definitely has had some on/off phases, which have not helped it.

There is currently a trough NE of the Lesser Antilles that is providing some westerly flow across the majority of the Atlantic. If the trough splits and closes off, conditions could improve for it to develop down the road, since it is far enough south. However, if the trough stays as it is, the system will have trouble developing.

The system is well-defined and it would only take a slight reduction of the upper-level winds to develop. However, I am not counting on that happening right away, if at all.

#5 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:55 am

I wake up and we have: Tammy, Stan2??, and an active low below 10N!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :yow:

Hyperstorm · #6 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:58 am

The eastern Atlantic is just not the hotbed of activity this year. It doesn't matter how well defined a tropical wave has been. I should have thought about that before completely writing it off yesterday and even more so, knowing how well defined this one is for this time of year.

*It does appear that the area of high pressure in the upper-levels in the Eastern Atlantic is moving westward. It is showing signs of doing that right now with the trough NE of the islands showing signs of closing off. If this trend continues, this system may very well have a chance to develop once it moves past 40W over the next couple of days.

#7 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:02 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Cycloneye...
...There is currently a trough NE of the Lesser Antilles that is providing some westerly flow across the majority of the Atlantic. If the trough splits and closes off, conditions could improve for it to develop down the road, since it is far enough south. However, if the trough stays as it is, the system will have trouble developing...

My impression this morning is that said trough near us IS breaking. Don't the last 3 or so sat frames (choose your pick - ir, wv, vis) seem to verify this, or am I just nuts? :?:

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:03 am

Agree Hyperstorm about the trough closing as I see that too.I posted the discussion from the San Juan NWS in the thread of NE Caribbean about the troughs and they say it will be a challenge to forecast in the next few days.That trough has a double sword because if it stays near the islands it will not let it develop and deviate from here but if the trough closes then all bets are off with that wave.

Hyperstorm · #9 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:05 am

bvigal wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:Cycloneye...
...There is currently a trough NE of the Lesser Antilles that is providing some westerly flow across the majority of the Atlantic. If the trough splits and closes off, conditions could improve for it to develop down the road, since it is far enough south. However, if the trough stays as it is, the system will have trouble developing...

My impression this morning is that said trough near us IS breaking. Don't the last 3 or so sat frames (choose your pick - ir, wv, vis) seem to verify this, or am I just nuts?

bvigal...

You're right in that it is not as wide and open as it has been over the past couple of days. I hadn't looked at the data before making the first post. Now in the post above yours, I made note of it. Some gradual development of this wave is becoming increasingly possible.

Anthonyl · #10 Postby **Anthonyl** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:28 am

With the impending set up over the Atlantic where would this probable cyclone go? It looks that the islands may have to have to deal with some tropical moisture or whatever this system brings.

#11 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:32 am

mtm4319 · #12 Postby **mtm4319** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:40 am

Upgraded to 94L... ?

Active Morning! Tropical Low has formed 8N 35W

Active Morning! Tropical Low has formed 8N 35W

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