Researchers unravel storm mysteries

[HurricaneJoe22]

Researchers unravel storm mysteries

Hurricane hunters and scientists took advantage of Katrina, Rita and Ophelia to collect new data that could help predict storm intensity.

BY THERESA BRADLEY

tbradley@herald.com

Hurricanes wrought unprecedented havoc in 2005, but they also brought an unprecedented wealth of scientific data, too. Following a six-week research mission flying a team of scientists into the eyes of the two biggest storms of the season, forecasters may one day be better equipped to predict the intensity of hurricanes, which can change quickly.

''We'd never have imagined we'd have two Category 5 storms,'' said Shuyi Chen, a University of Miami meteorology professor, who helped head the mission. ``We collected all the data we'd ever dreamed of.''

Chen and other researchers from UM, the University of Washington, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., met with the media Monday at Miami International Airport to discuss their project.

Historically, storm scientists have focused much of their research on predicting a hurricane's track, paying close attention to the eye wall where the most destructive winds are found.

This year, the researchers joined forces to study the intensity of a storm. They focused on monitoring the interaction between a storm's eye wall and its feeder bands, which help feed energy into the eye.

HELPFUL CLUES

Those bands -- waves of rain spiraling out from a hurricane's eye -- could give forecasters more data about a storm's intensity as many as five days in advance.

'The nightmare scenario is when people go to bed, saying, `Oh, we'll have a Category 1 or Category 2,' and then wake up the next morning with a Category 4 on their doorstep,'' said Robert Rogers, who directs hurricane field research for NOAA.

''This could give you a better prediction of what the storm will be like when it makes landfall,'' he said. ``You're better able to alert the public and give them adequate lead time to prepare.''

To observe the interaction, researchers joined NOAA and U.S. Navy flight crews aboard three P3 hurricane-hunter planes to simultaneously sample the atmosphere on three sides of a storm.

Since mid-August, the planes have flown nine day-long trips into the heart of hurricanes Ophelia, Katrina and Rita -- the latter two reached Category 5 strength.

Ophelia, the smallest of the three, actually afforded the bumpiest ride: The bigger the storm, the more stable its weather pattern, researchers and flight crew explained.

Lt. Cmdr. Carl Newman, 38, piloted one of the aircraft -- a 65-ton U.S. Navy plane built in 1968 to torpedo Cold War submarines -- into the heart of all three storms.

''It's like going into a church. It's a big, white stadium as far as the eye can see,'' said Newman, who grew up in Cutler Ridge and has seen the core of 120 hurricanes since joining NOAA's ''Hurricane Hunters'' team in 1999.

For the research mission, Newman's Navy flight crew had to dodge bumps and protect the Doppler radar that protrudes from the back of the plane like coned rocket-gear.

WORK WRAPPING UP

The field work phase of the project -- known among researchers as RAINEX, for Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment -- ends Friday, when scientists and pilots return home.

The researchers, including five UM graduate meteorology students, will spend two years analyzing the data, and a report is due to be published in academic meteorological journals by 2008.