Dr. Neil Frank still concerned about Galveston Direct Hit

[HouTXmetro]

He stated the storm is still moving on a trajectory that the Storm could hit Galveston directly and the more Northward motion needs to occur soon.

[Roxy]

I just saw the same thing which puzzled me because everyone here says it's going to Lousiana.

Watch and wait, I spose.

[FunkMasterB]

He must be cross-eyed or something.

[Swimdude]

The storm just made a western wobble. And yes, the wobbles are important.

[HouTXmetro]

The storm just made a western wobble. And yes, the wobbles are important.

I can't beleive people argue about the pettiest things. All in harms way ae very concerned but some people on here feel obliged to belittle everyones observation. I'm with you Swimdude, at this point every wobble is crucial to certain areas.

[BReb]

Hopefully Galveston's sea walls would be up to the task of a reduced-strength Rita.

[deltadog03]

the last 3 images or so on radar is showing a due west wobble...don't count this out galveston/houston

[Stratosphere747]

Did not see it...

But did he give any atmospheric conditions and reasoning why?

I felt and mentioned that we would see a western wobble, but that the northern wobbles were more prevalent.

[x-y-no]

I presume he was just emphasizing the uncertainty which still remains. It would only take a 5 degree or so leftward shift from today's average track to put Galveston directly under the center track, and that's not a real big shift in terms of average track error.

Odds are still strongest that Rita makes landfall somewhere fairly close to the border on the Texas side.

[mtm4319]

She looks north of the forecast points (which point to a landfall just on the TX side of the line).

[hookemfins]

[quote="deltadog03"]the last 3 images or so on radar is showing a due west wobble...don't count this out galveston/houston[/quote

Last hour shows no westward wobble. Rita is moving during the past hour on around a 315-320 motion. Before that she was around 325-330.

[JQ Public]

Every wobble should count but it shouldn't be relied upon. The hurricane is not a point like a tornado. Just get out if you're anywhere in the warning area. Its too late to watch every wobble.

[flashflood]

That is Dr. Neil Frank's style. He was like that when he was director of the NHC. I have tape recordings I made when I was a kid with him in them. As long as there is a chance of something happening, he will hold on to it till the end, better safe than sorry.

[WXextreme]

That is Dr. Neil Frank's style. He was like that when he was director of the NHC. I have tape recordings I made when I was a kid with him in them. As long as there is a chance of something happening, he will hold on to it till the end, better safe than sorry.

That's how one loses credibility in my book.

[NFLnut]

Well, I don't know what pipe he's smoking, but Reet is SE of Sabine Pass and moving NW. It would have to make a severe left turn to even hit NORTH of Galveston! As it is, she'll hit right at Sabine Pass, just east of the LA/TX border!

[soonertwister]

Well, I don't know what pipe he's smoking, but Reet is SE of Sabine Pass and moving NW. It would have to make a severe left turn to even hit NORTH of Galveston! As it is, she'll hit right at Sabine Pass, just east of the LA/TX border!

I just did the math on this, and if you use the storm heading for the last 36 hours, the center of the eye would pass within 20 miles east of Galveston, and from the heading for the last 24 hours it would pass within 25.

It would take a miniscule change in motion for the center of the storm to go directly over Galveston. As it is, either of those two fixes would put a significant portion of Galveston Island in the eastern eyewall.

I think the island is going to flood anyway. I suppose there's a chance it won't, but it doesn't look good from what I see. And even if the center of the eye goes 30 miles east of Galveston, Houston will still take a pretty severe hit.

[thetraveler]

Dr. Neil has been following and forecasting hurricanes alot longer than alot of posters here have been on the earth (including me). He is the only met I trust from the Houston's news media when it comes to hurricane information. BTW if you watch the radar loop out of NOLA you can get a good view of the eye path. GLTA.

[jasons2k]

Dr. Neil has been following and forecasting hurricanes alot longer than alot of posters here have been on the earth (including me). He is the only met I trust from the Houston's news media when it comes to hurricane information. BTW if you watch the radar loop out of NOLA you can get a good view of the eye path. GLTA.

Exactly. Houston is not in the clear yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Neil is now fairly confident that Rita will indeed hit east of Galveston.

[LAStorm01]

TX LA will both get hit hard...