Pressure Dropping Again - How Low?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

How far will the pressure go during this second phase of intensification?

910-911
13
12%
908-909
10
9%
906-907
11
10%
904-905
19
17%
902-903
10
9%
900-901
17
15%
898-899
30
27%
 
Total votes: 110

Message
Author
SamSagnella
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 630
Age: 39
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport, CT
Contact:

Pressure Dropping Again - How Low?

#1 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:46 pm

Rita has reentered a deepening phase and could really drop her pressure way down once again. How far down do you think it will go on this second round of intensification?

I think 900mb.

EDIT: Can a mod add '897 or Below' to the poll please?
0 likes   

User avatar
milankovitch
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 243
Age: 40
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:30 pm
Location: Menands, NY; SUNY Albany
Contact:

#2 Postby milankovitch » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:50 pm

Rita is deepening during an ERC I think once the ERC is done this is going back to 900......or lower.
0 likes   

jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#3 Postby jpigott » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:02 pm

last 3 vortex reports have been :coaster: !! Rita has gone from 913 - 911 -913. I wonder if she is waitning until she gets done with EWRC before she goes :blowup:
0 likes   

Viper252
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:09 pm

#4 Postby Viper252 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:08 pm

Very possible it could break Gilberts record.
0 likes   

blueeyes_austin
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 117
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 1:40 pm

#5 Postby blueeyes_austin » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:46 pm

The water she is going over is not nearly as warm, and will become more shallow.

I think it will be in the 905-907 range at its next peak.
0 likes   

User avatar
huricanwatcher
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 65
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
Location: Kirkwood NY
Contact:

#6 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:59 pm

HOW LOW CAN SHE GO?? :band:
0 likes   

NastyCat4

#7 Postby NastyCat4 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:50 pm

Right now, it is probably a Cat 5 as we speak. Is this thing really going to stay weak, and be a Cat 3 on landfall? I wish, for the sake of the people in the area it will make landfall, but I really don't think so. This could be a VERY Strong Cat 4 or a 5 on landfall.
0 likes   

smashmode
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 173
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:05 pm

#8 Postby smashmode » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:00 pm

The majority thinks this thing is going back down 900?

what is it strengthing off of?..

:?:
0 likes   

NastyCat4

#9 Postby NastyCat4 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:03 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg


I think this picture says it all---looks like it is back at full steam. :eek:
0 likes   

jhamps10

#10 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:18 pm

i put down 898-899. But only because it's the lowest on here, I really think that it could get back down to 897 or even 895, (I am not wanting this at all, I have friends that live in Houston, I actually want a miracle and have this thing just completely fall apart). It looks good right now, I think that it really will intensify rapidly.
0 likes   

SamSagnella
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 630
Age: 39
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport, CT
Contact:

#11 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:27 pm

smashmode wrote:The majority thinks this thing is going back down 900?

what is it strengthing off of?..

:?:


I think a better question would be, what was is weakening off of? The dry air, which everyone has been saying was the cause of the weakening, had nothing to do with it at all. The passage over a cool eddy in the GoM and the occurrance of an ERC led to the temporary weakening that we have seen over the past ~18hrs. Now that the ERC is almost complete, and that there is a warm eddy in the direct path of Rita, it seems likely that it could restrengthen rather significantly tonight. Once dry air entrainment begins, thats when the more long-term weakening will have started. FWIW.
0 likes   

arlwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:38 am

#12 Postby arlwx » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:38 pm

If there had been a category of "no lower than 912", I would have voted for it.
0 likes   

arlwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:38 am

#13 Postby arlwx » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:40 pm

I see the latest vortex now has it at 915 mb.
0 likes   

audioslave8
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:30 am
Location: NORTH CACILLAC

#14 Postby audioslave8 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:25 pm

920 TO 932 SHES ALREADY AT 917 11:00 P.M. ADVISORY SHE AINT GETTING ANY STRONGER
0 likes   

Dmetal81
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:22 am
Location: Westminster, SC

#15 Postby Dmetal81 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:36 pm

audioslave8 wrote:920 TO 932 SHES ALREADY AT 917 11:00 P.M. ADVISORY SHE AINT GETTING ANY STRONGER


Thats cause she isnt done replacing her eyewall... it wouldnt surprise me if she did most of her deepening tonight during the satellite shadow, as the EWRC is about done now it seems.

Since we're guessing, who wants to guess the diameter of her new eye? :) I say 35nm
0 likes   

audioslave8
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 73
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:30 am
Location: NORTH CACILLAC

#16 Postby audioslave8 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:47 am

pressure 921 i dont think so she wont be as strong as Katrina when she makes landfall
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ronjon and 71 guests