Model accuracy and everyones confidence level

[Jim Hughes]

Over the past ten or so years I have continualy told local meteorologists in the Washngton DC area about something that I have noticed while monitoring space weather and listenig to their 3-7 day forecasts /and what they tell us the models are saying.

I have also paid attention to their accuracy compared to the norm and lets add in their confidence level also to this evaluation. The relationship that I am referring to is occurring right now.

I have only been around Storm2k for about eigfht weeks now but I have never seen so many people having so much trouble with a storm...forecasting wise.

I also have seen many people post model outllooks for storm tracks and the models were all over the place initially and only time will tell if they ever get it right .....if they are even coming together ..I have no idea.

The confidence level of everyone also does not seem to be there either compared to previous storms.

What's the difference in my opinion? Sunspot Region 808 on the solar surface. I have seen this occur time and time again. When an extremely large complexed sunspot group rotates over the eastern limb of the sun..and we see an increase in space weather .... the models go haywire and they usually end up with a busted forecast.

Oh sure a few might get it right but the group as a whole gets lost. They never seem to come together. Or at the very least they never get it right until the end and the forecasters usually never have confidence up until the end also. I saw this occur last January with the big Northeaster.

They were back and forth with the storm . Nobody around Washington DC...OCM wise.... and I mean NO ONE.... gave out storm totals...no one would even mention if three inches or more would fall until 11pm Thursday night...less than 36 hours before the snow started falling.

Now I'll grant you that this is somewhat different here because the majoity of what I am talking about is related to local temperature patterns and ranfall events but I have also seen this occur with storms also.

It's just something to think about. Maybe over the long haul if we are all still around you may start to notice this also. Either way Ophelia is going to be a headache for the forecasters and I told that to NEXRAD over in the TWC Tropics forum earlier today after he posted his analysis over there.

As many of you know he also is one of the approved posters in the Tropical Analysis Forum in storm2k.



Jim

[wxcrazytwo]

Jim, I don't disagree with you, but I don't qite agree with you either. Sunspot 808, is a phenomenon that was necver suppose to be. This spot came out of the blue and started literally exploding huge x-class flares. now, if that X-17 flare would have been directed our way, then oh molly, we would have been buying the farm, because the earth would have a hard time maintaining magnetism (stability). Sunspot 808 will be in our direction in a few days, and scientists are predicting continous explosions, as well as bigger x-class flares and possibly bigger than the 17 that exploded several days ago..

[joe_koehle]

wxcrazy, if you're gonna forecast us possibly "buying the farm", then perhaps you could post a link to back up these claims.

[sponger]

I don't think thats unreasonable.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, I don't disagree with you, but I don't qite agree with you either. Sunspot 808, is a phenomenon that was necver suppose to be. This spot came out of the blue and started literally exploding huge x-class flares. now, if that X-17 flare would have been directed our way, then oh molly, we would have been buying the farm, because the earth would have a hard time maintaining magnetism (stability). Sunspot 808 will be in our direction in a few days, and scientists are predicting continous explosions, as well as bigger x-class flares and possibly bigger than the 17 that exploded several days ago..

First of all the sunspot region did not come out of the blue. It was around 14 days ago....Katrina time....Second .....I believe we are always in touch with space weather by way of the IMF so weather/climate patterns do change...take a look at what has occurred in the Washington DC area this cycle after large proton flares occur when the Stanford mean magnetic field reading is negative. (BTW the northern hemisphere winter relationship with space weather is more accepted by even skpetics)

We get strong cold anomalies approximately 40-50 days out that last for 10-14 days or more. Last January's proton flaring effect showed up in early March...or all of March and so did the usual 30 hPa warming at the north pole...Strat warm...when certain other variables are pesent .

A strong positve SOI phase began 54 days later like I have previously talked about over the years.

The strongest negative 30 & 90 day averages since 1997-98, that were around in early March 2005 were completely turned around almost...30 day was at least...

There are feedbacks from all of this.... I'll dig up a URL/paper about how the ionosphere showed changes BEFORE HAND of a major flare ...theory..NOT MINE... magnetic reconnection regarding our magnetic field with the suns....

Now there have been plenty of X Class flares before and several just as strong as the one the other day and the Earth's magnetic field is not going to lose stability over any impact from one of these events.

As far as continual flaring from Region 808..... Yes that is a distinct possibility until it loses it's magnetic complexity. I was looking at a magnetogram earlier and I saw no sign of any simplification occurring.


Jim

[Windy]

Didn't we all agree to keep solar stuff in the Global Weather Forum? Or are we all going to trot it out here in Talkin' Tropics again?

[Jim Hughes]

Didn't we all agree to keep solar stuff in the Global Weather Forum? Or are we all going to trot it out here in Talkin' Tropics again?

There have been numerous research papers written up over the past deade on the space weather effect upon the northern hemispheric winter atmospheric circulation/conditions. I am sorry that you have never read up on any of them. They are well accepted by many in the field and this is not some small group of people who are radicals.


Jim

[Windy]

That's cool, but didn't we all agree to discuss this in the Global Weather forums, since it's more appropriate to discuss it there? I seem to recall the owner of this site physically moving all the threads pertaining to solar forecasts over there.

The fact that the threads were moved has nothing to do with mob rule and quite frankly it's personally insulting for you to make that assumption. Since your theories, if proven, would have a far greater impact than on just tropical development I felt this was a more appropriate forum for their continued discussion.

Don't get me wrong, I have no power at this site (I'm not a moderator or an admin) and nobody has to listen to me. But it would be a mistake to believe that the admins around here have short memories.