can something spin up near bahamas and move west into fla?

[adrlnr]

can something spin up near bahamas and move west into fla? no signs yet??

[djtil]

monitor the miami nws discussions....they have a beat on it....if it happens it would be this weekend.

[x-y-no]

Some of the globals (GFS, Euro, UKMET) have hinted at the possibility of development in the Bahamas in 6 days or so.

None of them spins up more than a weak low as of yet, and they differ as to which way it goes, with the GFS taking it NE, the Euro west. Very poor agreement among the globals regarding the timing and strength of an EC trough, and correspondingly regarding the strength and position of ridging.

[PerfectStorm]

Katrina (prior to her nomenclature) was very early on predicted by NWS MIAMI to be a weak low, too.

[seaswing]

Models? graphics?

[x-y-no]

Katrina (prior to her nomenclature) was very early on predicted by NWS MIAMI to be a weak low, too.

Yes. That's why we watch the tropics like we do.

[jlauderdal]

monitor the miami nws discussions....they have a beat on it....if it happens it would be this weekend.

i would recommend also looking at melbourne discos, they had a better read on eventual kat thean miami did. miami was lukewarm almost to the end. you have a member of this board that works at melbourne nws and does discussions and they are usually outstanding, his initials are TC.

[gatorcane]

Katrina (prior to her nomenclature) was very early on predicted by NWS MIAMI to be a weak low, too.

Exactly, in fact they had written it off several times and many local mets envisioned a weak low or wave moving across South Florida....well billions of dollars of damage later in South Florida tells you something happened otherwise.

would recommend also looking at melbourne discos, they had a better read on eventual kat thean miami did. miami was lukewarm almost to the end. you have a member of this board that works at melbourne nws and does discussions and they are usually outstanding, his initials are TC.

As for melbourne they were somewhat better than Miami as they predicted a low or depression of some form but had it curving E of Florida which never happened.

[cjrciadt]

Katrina (prior to her nomenclature) was very early on predicted by NWS MIAMI to be a weak low, too.

Exactly, in fact they had written it off several times and many local mets envisioned a weak low or wave moving across South Florida....well billions of dollars of damage later in South Florida tells you something happened otherwise.

It has been one week since she became a TS. I'am not saying anything about development until I see 96hr or farther out GFDL models.

[mascpa]

i would recommend also looking at melbourne discos, they had a better read on eventual kat thean miami did. miami was lukewarm almost to the end. you have a member of this board that works at melbourne nws and does discussions and they are usually outstanding, his initials are TC.[/quote]

Disco is making a comeback?

Sorry, couldn't help myself. I needed to find something, anything to make me laugh.

[SapphireSea]

Looks to me that low pressure is very elongated SW to NE, probobly due to it being jammed between two anticyclones (One NW of it and one SE) and TD 13 to its E. TD 13 has to get out of the woodwork it should be less hostile. It might be trying to develop as you can see some action trying to fire around it, but it's getting blown off by the NW high.

[gatorcane]

it's September so anything could happen

[gatorcane]

There is a definite spin as noticed in the visible....curious to see if thunderstorms start firing around it within the next few days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[gatorcane]

MUCH more convection this morning associated with this potential low E of the Bahamas

[bucman1]

Everybody said Katrina was nothing when it was near the Bahamas and looked what happened.

Plenty of warm water and the gulf stream.

[gatorcane]

it's looking more impressive by the hour...thoughts?

[GalvestonDuck]

"Go away, storm!"