Do You Think It Will Be As Bad As "They" Say?

[abajan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, most of the time (in fact, almost always), what actually happens is not nearly as bad as what was predicted. I think this will be the case with New Orleans as well. What do you think?

[JtSmarts]

I voted I don't know. A lot depends on the exact track of the storm.

[MBismyPlayground]

Well all I can base this opinion on would be my gut.... and prior to this ever going into a cat 5, at its beginning I have said that Katrina made my gut churn. I get literally sick to my stomach looking at her. So based on this I vote for worse than predicted. By the way, hubbie thinks my "GUT" is crazy as hell and can't understand how a storm could physically effect me. I don't have a clue either.

[Ixolib]

Well, I voted about as predicted - although I'd much rather see not as bad...

Right now in Biloxi, things are pretty calm and VERY hot/humid! Have had two light showers in the last hour or so. It would be nice if these conditions would continue throughout this event.

[Cookiely]

Andrew will seem as nothing compared to Katrina. The lay out of the land and the urban area will be devastating. I think they left evacuations too late. It just seems like Katrina is 15-18 hours ahead of schedule. I'm praying all the people on the interstate can get to shelter in time.

[Persepone]

Alas, it is such a large hurricane that no matter where it goes, it is going to hit pretty badly. Even if it weakens, it will be devastating.

The population has grown significantly all along the gulf coast since the 1960s... Additionally, there has been significant "erosion" in the bayous in Louisiana, etc. And I'm sure you have your share of other changes that have changed how the barrier islands, etc. work.

I think it was a mistake not to call for the mandatory evacuations last night rather than waiting until today--but 20/20 hindsight and being 1458 miles away from Katrina makes it easy for me to say that... The decisions are much, much more difficult when you have to make them for yourself and your families, your neighbors, your business, etc. etc. etc. The bottom line is that there are no good answers.

We can only cross our fingers and hope that the Superdome holds, that people were able to leave, that people who stayed and rode it out had made sensible and appropriate preparations, etc. No matter what, it is not going to be nice, it is not going to be pretty and for those who have to experience it, it is bound to be pretty miserable, no matter what.

One comment from an "outsider" is that the announcement that the storm is coming ashore tomorrow morning is a "technical" statement. But in human terms, the storm has already started. People in NO are already experiencing the rain and wind of the "feeder bands" as those poor people waiting to be searched to get into the Superdome are finding out firsthand. I've seen this before--it's the same problem as showing landfall as a "point" or a "line" rather than as a "field" or as a "cone." The "storm" actually precedes a hurricane... I don't think a lot of people realized that. Yeah, perhaps they should have--but human nature being what it is, I think a lot did not. People who have not experienced a hurricane before don't realize that the "storm" before (and after) the hurricane can have very long durations.

[WindRunner]

I said I don't know because although generally damage is overhyped for the public's safety, everything I see is telling me that this is el fin for NOLA. The only way I see the destruction not happening is if the storm surge numbers are off, and we can't really tell how accurate they will be yet.