From what I gather Katrina will head more

[wxcrazytwo]

south of the projected path and then scoot on up NE skimming Tampa? Now, if Katrina stays intact over the gulf can we see this sucker bomb and move closer to Tampa?

[gkrangers]

Its directly on the projected path.

[Stormcenter]

south of the projected path and then scoot on up NE skimming Tampa? Now, if Katrina stays intact over the gulf can we see this sucker bomb and move closer to Tampa?

Well so far the NHC doesn't think so as a matter a fact they haven't ever mention Katrina ever getting over a Cat.1 storm. I'm not sure why because in the past they have never been gun shy predicting a storm to
reach major category. I guess eventhough there will be low shear and lots of warm water something else will not be ideal for maximum intensification. In my opinion this is GREAT news for all coastal residents.

[tronbunny]

(the following analysis is only my opinion based on limited facts and education... Always rely on your local authorities and the NHC for more accurate analysis on which to base safety decisions)
(translation: I'm not a real weather forecaster, I just play one on my computer!)

Tampa's outlook depends almost entirely on the "magical" high/ridge (over the noFL area now) that is slowly drifting eastward.
If it drifts faster and strengthens..it will 'suck' Kat north and east.. probably never giving it a chance to get over the power pplant of the GOM.
But if it meanders around, and never really weakens or strengthens, then I say that Kat will take the path of least resistance and continue westward and out into the GOM wher it has the resources to strengthen considerably.
Where it goes from there depends on a LOT of other factors in addition to that almighty ridge.
I do not have the synoptic data to even guess what other major influences are 'scheduled' to appear in 3 days time.