Basically he puts the storm just off the West Palm Beach or Broward County areas then moving straight west over Florida. Then rapidly intensifying in the Eastern Gulf up to hurricane strenght, with a NW movement. He admits that the forecast is problematical once the storm is into the GOM.
Ok, flame away gang.
Joe Bastardi's forecast on CNBC this morning
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johngaltfla
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Interesting change of heart there, Matt..just 4 hours ago on another thread, you were downplaying the storm's potential with this comment to someone who made the observation that TD 12 appeared to be organizing:
What has suddenly changed, in your mind, that you are now predicting a Cat 2 in Miami?
--Lou
We have no tropical storm hear not even close. The recon just reported back a whole 21 knots of flight level winds.
What has suddenly changed, in your mind, that you are now predicting a Cat 2 in Miami?
--Lou
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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jlauderdal
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The ex 10 thread is locked but if you search back you can view some of the older track models for continuity.
The weakness north of 12 looks like it is filling in so the northern component of motion should decrease soon.
12 could reach Cat1 status before making first landfall in Florida and the length of time over land will effect the later forecast.
This close in the NHC should have a good handle on motion and intensity for the Florida landfall.
Since the storm has been moving so slowly the Friday landfall forecast has good continuity.
To my untrained eye it looks like Katrina may come in a little further south and track around the ridge a little faster than the official forecast but not by much.
The ridge orientation centered over Missisippi has not changed much yet, it looks like 12/katrina will take a lengthy track over warm gulf water.
We will just have to wait to see how quickly katrina redevelops once she moves off the west coast of Florida.
The weakness north of 12 looks like it is filling in so the northern component of motion should decrease soon.
12 could reach Cat1 status before making first landfall in Florida and the length of time over land will effect the later forecast.
This close in the NHC should have a good handle on motion and intensity for the Florida landfall.
Since the storm has been moving so slowly the Friday landfall forecast has good continuity.
To my untrained eye it looks like Katrina may come in a little further south and track around the ridge a little faster than the official forecast but not by much.
The ridge orientation centered over Missisippi has not changed much yet, it looks like 12/katrina will take a lengthy track over warm gulf water.
We will just have to wait to see how quickly katrina redevelops once she moves off the west coast of Florida.
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Trader Ron
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Rainband
You mean north right?? I think the storm will come in north the way it's moving now.Nimbus wrote:The ex 10 thread is locked but if you search back you can view some of the older track models for continuity.
The weakness north of 12 looks like it is filling in so the northern component of motion should decrease soon.
12 could reach Cat1 status before making first landfall in Florida and the length of time over land will effect the later forecast.
This close in the NHC should have a good handle on motion and intensity for the Florida landfall.
Since the storm has been moving so slowly the Friday landfall forecast has good continuity.
To my untrained eye it looks like Katrina may come in a little further south and track around the ridge a little faster than the official forecast but not by much.
The ridge orientation centered over Missisippi has not changed much yet, it looks like 12/katrina will take a lengthy track over warm gulf water.
We will just have to wait to see how quickly katrina redevelops once she moves off the west coast of Florida.
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gkrangers
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