Central Florida by Sat.....

[dixiebreeze]

says the TAFB:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif

[gatorcane]

says the TAFB:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif

Yes, things will get interesting for central FL but I expect more of a rain event with this slow moving system than a wind event that Frances and Jeanne gave you.

[gkrangers]

Same as the NHC position.

Also..they bring 97L very far west it seems.

[Jevo]

Should be an interesting scenario, although Im not sold on any landfall scenario north of Lake Okeechobee just for the mere fact that the ridge axis will be sitting close to 27N which would inhbit any further northern compnent to the system.

There was a concern of the trough breaking down the ridge, I think the globals are starting to back off of that solution at this point. It will have some effect, but as stated in the 5PM discussion

ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

IMO Id rather be on a landfall of a TS or Cat 1 than in the Northern quads

[dixiebreeze]

Good points, Javo.