2006?

[jax]

well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year?

I say 8 / 5 / 2

oppinions?

[mascpa]

My opinion is that 2005 is not winding down, just taking a breather. Its only August 19th, we haven't even hit the peak of the season. Patience, my friend. The tropics are simply trying to lull you into a false sense of security. My guess is that when the activity picks up again, it will do so with a vengeance.

[jax]

My opinion is that 2005 is not winding down, just taking a breather. Its only August 19th, we haven't even hit the peak of the season. Patience, my friend. The tropics are simply trying to lull you into a false sense of security. My guess is that when the activity picks up again, it will do so with a vengeance.

i believe this season peaked in July... maybe a fish or 2 left
for this season... Historicly the season peaks in September...
but that's not always the case.

do you have a prediction for 2006?

[SouthFloridawx]

well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year?

I say 8 / 5 / 2

oppinions?

The peak of the season has not even begun this is a rediculous statement.

[dwg71]

I think the post is heavy on the sarcasm. 2006-45/29/0

[jax]

well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year?

I say 8 / 5 / 2

oppinions?

The peak of the season has not even begun this is a rediculous statement.

I think the season has peaked... and I may very well be right...
the question is... what do you think 2006 holds for us?
please...

[gatorcane]

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHWARD OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

what a dull month...maybe Sept will be more active

[jax]

I think the post his heavy on the sarcasm. 2006-45/29/0

that many storms... with NO landfalls? wow...

[dwg71]

I think the post his heavy on the sarcasm. 2006-45/29/0

that many storms... with NO landfalls? wow...

xx/yy/zz

xx = The number of named storms
yy = Number of Hurricanes
zz = Number of Majors - not landfalls.

[Swimdude]

Hehehe... I smell sarcasm everywhere!

[Andrew92]

Just as a note Jax, I wouldn't walk away too soon if I were you.

Lest we forget, Frances formed into a depression on August 25, and we still had two more in the month of August after that. That might be a stretch this year, but I don't doubt that two or three more storms will form before September.

As for 2006, it was just way too early to make a prediction.

-Andrew92

[Steve]

>>well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year? I say 8 / 5 / 2 oppinions

It's barely started. This is a 2 or 3 peak storm season. We're in one of the mid-card breaks. Obviously you are entitled to your opinion that you feel the season has ended or may still have another fish or two (assuming you're being serious here).

I have NO IDEA what the 2006 season is going to bring. It's way way way way way way way way too early to do anything but a blind guess. Very few of the factors that the experts put into forecasts are even happening yet. Many that lend credibility to forecasts won't happen until late next Spring. There is absolutely no credible way to forecast next season while we're in August.

Having said that, if someone put a gun up to my head, I go with the historical average 10/6/2 or whatever it is now-a-days.

Steve

[jasons2k]

This early out, to get your numbers for 2006, just spin the Price is Right wheel. You have a good a chance as anyone.

Many of the factors used to forecast a hurricane season, such as currents, MJO, SOI, water temp profiling, winter season analogues, etc., are either too far away or haven't even occured yet. Forecasting 2006 would be about as accurate as forecasting 2026 from this far out.

Also, it's way WAY too early to dismiss 2005. So we've had a few "slow" weeks - slow by 2005 standards but not climatology. A few slow weeks does *not*, I repeat, does NOT equal a busted season. The pattern is changing and we are just now getting into the meat of the season. Floydbuster had an excellent summary about this in last night's broadcast; it ain't over 'till it's over, and it certainly ain't over on August 19.

[Aquawind]

Since were voicing opinions.. Here is mine..

Paul

[cycloneye]

well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year?

I say 8 / 5 / 2

oppinions?

If you are going to make bold statements like those about 2005 season winding down and about your numbers for 2006 you have to post with scientific evidence why you think the 2005 season is winding down and why you have already numbers for 2006 not say only (It looks Like) or 2006 numbers (8/5/2).Why you say it looks like 2005 is winding down and why you have 8/5/2 in 2006?.

[Sanibel]

I think you can safely say some of those calling for a bust-out season are getting a little nervous looking at the dry African ITCZ right now. You don't really need any scientific details for that.


I won't offer a guess over September...

[jax]

well... now that it looks like 2005 hurricane season
is winding down... what do you think is in store for next year?

I say 8 / 5 / 2

oppinions?

If you are going to make bold statements like those about 2005 season winding down and about your numbers for 2006 you have to post with scientific evidence why you think the 2005 season is winding down and why you have already numbers for 2006 not say only (It looks Like) or 2006 numbers (8/5/2).Why you say it looks like 2005 is winding down and why you have 8/5/2 in 2006?.

If I had all the data to forcast "accuratly" forcast the rest of this season
AND the official numbers for next year... that would make me a pretty
increadable ProMet... All I'm saying is... I think this season peaked in
July... and what an increadable Juna and July it was... record breaking!
An IMHO I think we have seen the peak... I woult be surprised if I'm
wrong.. and I'll eat my crow... and I'm GUESSING that 2006 will be
8 / 5 / 2... JMHO. I do know that there is no solid evidence that this
season is winding down... and none to the contrary... Please rely on the
NHC for more accurate details...

[TS Zack]

This is a stupid topic. We haven't had much activity this month but still are well above normal for the year. HELLO??

J storm was Jeanne last year. We can still not have a storm till mid-september, and last year will still not be close to this one.

Things can't always be active!

We may have an active early and late season. Still 3 1/2 months left!

[hurricanefreak1988]

If I see one more comment about this season being done and over with, I swear, I'm going to explode. This is getting ridiculous. Flat out ridiculous. I guess people are trying to rile us up and start arguments. That seems to be the only logical explanation.

[Aquawind]

OK.. to much guessing here.. thread locked..

Paul