A south La. perspective on Monday's NOAA announcement

[BayouVenteux]

From this morning's Baton Rouge Advocate:

Officials reminded: BR not too far inland to miss wrath of hurricanes
By MIKE DUNNE
mdunne@theadvocate.com
Advocate staff writer


Residents should prepare for active hurricane season

Just because Baton Rouge is miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico doesn't mean it will escape the fury of a hurricane, local officials were reminded Monday.

But, if trouble does come, East Baton Rouge Parish might well be one of the best prepared places. The city-parish just received word it will become only the second city to receive certification by the Emergency Management Accreditation Program, Mayor-President Kip Holden announced.

The parish received conditional accreditation and will get full accreditation once a few changes are made to meet the program's 58 standards. Only Jacksonville-Duval County, Fla., has been accredited, he said.

The National Hurricane Center on Monday issued its annual forecast, saying it predicts 12-15 named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes), with seven to nine reaching hurricane strength (74 mph or greater), and four to five major hurricanes (storms with winds in excess of 111 mph). The long-term average is nine to 10 named storms, five to six hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes.

During an annual city-parish meeting to discuss hurricane preparedness before the June 1 opening of hurricane season, LSU climatologist Jay Grymes showed wind contour maps to show the southern part of the parish probably experienced "triple-digit" wind speeds -- in excess of 100 mph -- during Hurricane Betsy 40 years ago. Hurricane force winds of more than 75 mph extended to the Louisiana-Mississippi state line.

And, with another graphic showing rainfall, he said Tropical Storm Allison inundated Baton Rouge and south Louisiana with 20 or more inches of rain in a five-day period, causing massive flooding.

Topping off those grim refreshers was the fact that the National Hurricane Center and renowned forecaster William Grey of Colorado State University are both predicting an above-normal active hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ocean has been warmer than normal during the past decade, spawning more and stronger storms, Grymes said.

"And it is likely to continue for another couple of decades," he said.

No one knows how many storms, if any, will impact Louisiana, Grymes said. A forecast for a busy season may or may not produce a storm making landfall in Louisiana, he said.

He said Louisiana has a 60 percent to 65 percent chance that a named storm will strike this season, a 1-in-4 chance of being hit by a hurricane and only a 10 percent chance of suffering a Category 3 or stronger.

But odds don't always equate to reality.

Grymes pointed out that devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was during a year with relatively little activity. In 2002, Louisiana was hit by four storms -- two within a one-week period (Tropical Storm Isidore and Hurricane Lili.)

Last year, massive Hurricane Ivan sent people fleeing from southeastern Louisiana only to turn at the last moment and head into the Alabama-Florida coastline. Then, after several days, a piece of Ivan reformed and came back to haunt the state as Tropical Storm Ivan -- or "Ivan II." It was much less dramatic than Ivan I, which tore up the Gulf Shores-Pensacola area of Alabama and Florida.

Ivan's first flirtation with the state sent about three-quarters of a million people onto the highways, creating a massive traffic headache. Some motorists needed at least nine hours to make the usually 90-minute trip from New Orleans to Baton Rouge.

State Police Lt. Col. Joey Booth said he didn't see a lot of coordination in that evacuation. "It was nobody's fault," he said.

But since then, State Police and the Louisiana Department of Transportation have been working to improve coordination and come up with a better plan to evacuate the Greater New Orleans Area.

Booth outlined several evacuation and traffic changes from last year, such as getting permission from Mississippi to allow contraflow -- all four lanes of an interstate highway flowing in one direction -- on Interstates 55 and 59.

Traffic going west on Interstate 10 at Slidell would be forced to go north of I-59. Westbound I-12 traffic at Hammond would be routed north up I-55. Those two changes should reduce traffic jams in Baton Rouge, he said.

The new evacuation plan calls for phases. People below the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway would begin evacuating 50 hours before the expected landfall of a strong storm. At 40 hours, people south of the Mississippi River and the west bank of the New Orleans area would leave, and at 30 hours, people in Jefferson and Orleans would begin to flee.

Assistant DOTD Secretary Gordon Nelson said about $2 million in new ramps and lanes have been built or soon will be built to improve contraflow. There will also be more signage with messages directing motorists to alternatives, he said.

For example, contraflow toward Baton Rouge will begin in Metairie at the Clearview Drive interchange. Traffic headed out of the city will actually enter the eastbound on-ramp but use a new lane that will allow them to then head westbound.

A lane of the westbound I-10 at Clearview Drive will cross over to the normal eastbound lanes. Contraflow will end in LaPlace, where the westbound lanes will be routed up I-55 and eastbound lanes switch back over to the westbound side to head toward Baton Rouge.

Similar plans exist in Lafayette and Lake Charles.

Booth said each storm and evacuation will be managed by State Police and the highway department based on expected conditions. He said the state is printing up about 1 million maps with the evacuation routes and alternates.

Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Director JoAnne Moreau also reviewed how departments staff the Emergency Operation Center and other operations required to respond to a disaster.