Major Flare in Progress

[Aslkahuna]

We have a X1.5 flare in progress at this time. It appears to be a double max event at X1.5 and in fact may be two flares at once as there is definitely more than one discrete area of flare emission. Our observations show a parallel ribbon area with a Bright Surge on the Disk and a developing Eruptive Prominence in the complex palge /filament area removed from the main spots. The second area involves the delta region in the two main spots and is also a parallel ribbon event with unbral coverage. There is an enhanced region elsewhere but seems to be enhanced plage and not flare emission. The delta region activity is especially bright and was noted after we started observing and is probably the source of the second X-Ray maximum. Off band observation indicates that this area of flaring could be white light. In total, we probably have a 3B or possibly 4B if the third bright area is included. Structurally, it looks like two flares at once with the brighter being a 1B.
Too early to tell what the radio burstsand proton effects will be.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Sort of surprised they ended it early as a 13 minute event. Must barely have made the cutoff from the peak X1.5 ..I forget the formula.


Sort of hard for this one not to be a 2B or higher with this type of length...most likely took up a large area as you have said. We are right in it's scope if any decent CME was associated.


Jim

[Big-Iguana]

Looked like two x-flares visually also, if you count it as one that has been eight X-flares since Sept. 7th.



Closeup of 808:
http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2005/1 ... renier.jpg

http://sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

13-SEP-05 19:32 X1.3
13-SEP-05 20:03 X1.5 appx

Proton event soon?
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/

[Jim Hughes]

Looked like two x-flares visually also, if you count it as one that has been s eight X-flares since Sept. 7th.



Closeup of 808:
http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2005/1 ... renier.jpg

http://sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

13-SEP-05 19:32 X1.3
13-SEP-05 20:03 X1.5 appx

Proton event soon?
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/

Well they now have extended it and made it a LDE . They originally had the flare ending/bottoming out at M6.4 ...19 minute event. All the particulars are not in just yet but there was probably a Type II Sweep with the image you show. Good chance of a Type IV also.

Hard to say about any proton rises above the current level. Location was not favorable and there were no rises in electron levels. We can see that occur on most occasions. It's also been a few hours now.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

They are calling it a 3B though I still think it was two concurrent events based upon the optical. Bad news, the SXI is out so we won't get any help there either. Based upon the reported CME speed (1500km/sec) I get a computed transit time of 27.7 hours with an ETA of 15/0000Z.

Steve

[Big-Iguana]

Ok, thanks for the info Jim. Still rather new at the technical aspects of solar and plasma physics, so appreciate the feedback.

X1.7 CME just started too.

[Jim Hughes]

Ok, thanks for the info Jim. Still rather new at the technical aspects of solar and plasma physics, so appreciate the feedback.

X1.7 CME just started too.

Yeah I saw we have another X1.7 flare...Wow she is really popping them off again. Looks like she wants the record real bad.



Jim

[Jim Hughes]

They are calling it a 3B though I still think it was two concurrent events based upon the optical. Bad news, the SXI is out so we won't get any help there either. Based upon the reported CME speed (1500km/sec) I get a computed transit time of 27.7 hours with an ETA of 15/0000Z.

Steve

Well the image Big Iguana showed had two distinct parts. That can occur but it's not all that usual either. I saw earlier about the SXI...what next.
You'll be our only eyes pretty soon..




Jim

[Big-Iguana]

Lockheed Martin Solarsoft not updating, SXI has voltage probs, EIT still on CCD bakeout and ACE is suffering proton contamination. Yeah it's getting hard to gather data to say the least, Jim.

Aslkahuna, where did you get the optical intensity classification (3b) for that X1.5 flare? Looked around, but I couldn't find any sources that show me that data. Always looking for more links too.

Looks like we have a few protons coming in...
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_24h.html

[Jim Hughes]

Lockheed Martin Solarsoft not updating, SXI has voltage probs, EIT still on CCD bakeout and ACE is suffering proton contamination. Yeah it's getting hard to gather data to say the least, Jim.

Aslkahuna, where did you get the optical intensity classification (3b) for that X1.5 flare? Looked around, but I couldn't find any sources that show me that data. Always looking for more links too.

Looks like we have a few protons coming in...
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_24h.html

Yes I see that they are on the rise again. Not sure about the >100 MeV though.

[Aslkahuna]

The >10 MeV proton flux levels are above event threshold again. SEC called it a 3B on the Daily report but the event log has it listed as a 2B so take your choice. My observations would make it 2B plus 1B separate. The X1.7 was an Importance 1 but I was on it past max so I couldn't tell if it was N or brighter than that.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

The >10 MeV proton flux levels are above event threshold again. SEC called it a 3B on the Daily report but the event log has it listed as a 2B so take your choice. My observations would make it 2B plus 1B separate. The X1.7 was an Importance 1 but I was on it past max so I couldn't tell if it was N or brighter than that.

Steve

This region has put up a good number of bright flares this week besides the x-ray levels. Plus you add the recent storming and what may come.... The only things you could get her on is areal converage but she did not need that....Spot count also.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

The reason I think the afternoon event was two separate flares is because I was observing the Sun shortly after the first max and before the second. The area of flaring in the Delta region was not initially present and then it suddenly appeared and rapidly brightened becoming brighter than the other flare emission. I could see one particularly bright area well off band. I watched for a number of minutes and noted that it was now in the expansion phase and that's when I went inside and noted the second X-Ray max.

Steve

[Big-Iguana]

Comment from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): The multiple X-flare of yesterday evening turned out to be a triple one: X1.5, X1.4 and X1.7 peaking at 19:27UT, 20:04UT and 23:22UT respectively. The source region is once again 37/0808 now located at the central meridian. A full halo CME was associated with this event. The CME was first visible in C2 at 20:00UT, Sept 13. The speed measured by CACTus is 1437 km/s. We expect the CME to arrive late Sept 14, early Sept 15. A minor to major geomagnetic storm is possible. The CME induced a proton storm as the >10MeV curve passed the threshold early in the morning.

[Dick Pache]

Jim and company have you used these plots?

http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov//latest_rti_global.html

[Aslkahuna]

Another big event-X1.1 with max at 0838Z. The proton flux has gone up a bit. It looks as if the mainbody of the CME from yesterday has either missed or the reported speeds were too high.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Jim and company have you used these plots?

http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov//latest_rti_global.html

Thanks...I have seen it and I look at a similar one occasionally.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Another big event-X1.1 with max at 0838Z. The proton flux has gone up a bit. It looks as if the mainbody of the CME from yesterday has either missed or the reported speeds were too high.

Steve

It may have gotten here a short time ago around 0830z . A modest windshock of about 50 km/sec was seen and the magnetic field did get stronger but it ended quick. It could be just a precursor to the bigger one.

We have been under the influence of a coronal windstream for a while now but we did not know it early on because of the CME's. This recurrent coronal hole gave us 600 plus winds last time around. It should be ending by tomorrow I would think... at least from my perspective regarding solar winds above the 500 km/sec.



Jim

[P.K.]

Looks quite active at the moment, currently at KP7. http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif Sadly it is currently cloudy and all I can see is light pollution (I think I need nearer a KP9 to see anything anyway based on this http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/globeNE.gif and it would need to be more over this way than over the USA as it is currently http://www.spacew.com/www/aurvis.gif