Gulf Stream Shutdown in 3-5 years?
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CaluWxBill
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Yeah this article was kookism to the highest degree, however with that being said, I still believe we should be constantly trying to understand both Humanity's impact on the Climate, and climate change itself. If we ever do truely foresee a significant change, then maybe it should be brought to the forefront, because the idea that wars could break out over food is not far out there. The US must maintain strong leadership, and provide sound plans to keep the world economy going. To me, if the climate is going to change, we aren't going to be able to do much to stop it, even if we helped bring about the change by our own actions, trying to reverse a change through more human intervention could be an extreme disaster beyond the initial change itself. We need to study more about this stuff, and understand what we are doing to the atmosphere. In the meantime we should continue working on better energy conservation, which includes new energy technologies and fuels. I don't believe this articles statements, but anything we do, especially on a large scale will have impacts on our environment, it is our job to understand those impacts, and respond properly to any problems we may create.
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I feel pretty confident in saying that weather observations have only been recorded for so long ( i think it's back to about 1860). So for someone to say "it's never happened before" is just this side of LUDICROUS. If you're trying to have a scientific discussion, you'd better have specific facts, figures, dates, etc. Generic comments wont hack it.
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CaluWxBill
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alicia-w wrote:I feel pretty confident in saying that weather observations have only been recorded for so long ( i think it's back to about 1860). So for someone to say "it's never happened before" is just this side of LUDICROUS. If you're trying to have a scientific discussion, you'd better have specific facts, figures, dates, etc. Generic comments wont hack it.
my guess is they use ice cores, and actually tree rings to tell what the climate was like in the past. Plus I think Great Britain has weather records, similar to don sutherlands postings of I think Ben Franklin and George Washingtons weather journals around the fourth of July. I don't think the Great Britain observation from the 1500's or so would be found online, but I could be wrong.
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Regarding the "Pentagon report", I cant imagine there's any such thing since the Pentagon policies dont deal with immigration or weather or any thing of the like. That would be stuff like the State Department (at least for immigration) and Commerce Dept (for the weather stuff).
The Pentagon has enough problems that it cant fix without getting into other people's stuff.
The Pentagon has enough problems that it cant fix without getting into other people's stuff.
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Guest
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Anonymous
Forget the Pentagon. Woods Hole Backs Possibility
Forget the Pentagon, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden (backed by a Nobel-prize winner and top scientists) have issued similar warnings.
This is a serious issue and it should be looked into. People should not be called insane or laughed at by bringing up the subject -- even if it they say the Gulf Stream may switch. The only conspiracy surrounding the issue are the scientists hired by giant corporations to dismiss the issue.
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Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades'
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
25 January 2004
Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming, new research suggests.
A study, which is being taken seriously by top government scientists, has uncovered a change "of remarkable amplitude" in the circulation of the waters of the North Atlantic.
Similar events in pre-history are known to have caused sudden "flips" of the climate, bringing ice ages to northern Europe within a few decades. The development - described as "the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments", by the US Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, which led the research - threatens to turn off the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe's weather mild.
If that happens, Britain and northern Europe are expected to switch abruptly to the climate of Labrador - which is on the same latitude - bringing a nightmare scenario where farmland turns to tundra and winter temperatures drop below -20C. The much-heralded cold snap predicted for the coming week would seem balmy by comparison.
A report by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden - launched by Nobel prize-winner Professor Paul Crutzen and other top scientists - warned last week that pollution threatened to "trigger changes with catastrophic consequences" like these.
Scientists have long expected that global warming could, paradoxically, cause a devastating cooling in Europe by disrupting the Gulf Stream, which brings as much heat to Britain in winter as the sun does: the US National Academy of Sciences has even described such abrupt, dramatic changes as "likely". But until now it has been thought that this would be at least a century away.
The new research, by scientists at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Acquaculture Science at Lowestoft and Canada's Bedford Institute of Oceanography, as well as Woods Hole, indicates that this may already be beginning to happen.
Dr Ruth Curry, the study's lead scientist, says: "This has the potential to change the circulation of the ocean significantly in our lifetime. Northern Europe will likely experience a significant cooling."
Robert Gagosian, the director of Woods Hole, considered one of the world's leading oceanographic institutes, said: "We may be approaching a threshold that would shut down [the Gulf Stream] and cause abrupt climate changes.
"Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates." The scientists, who studied the composition of the waters of the Atlantic from Greenland to Tierra del Fuego, found that they have become "very much" saltier in the tropics and subtropics and "very much" fresher towards the poles over the past 50 years.
This is alarming because the Gulf Stream is driven by cold, very salty water sinking in the North Atlantic. This pulls warm surface waters northwards, forming the current.
The change is described as the "fingerprint" of global warming. As the world heats up, more water evaporates from the tropics and falls as rain in temperate and polar regions, making the warm waters saltier and the cold ones fresher. Melting polar ice adds more fresh water.
Ominously, the trend has accelerated since 1990, during which time the 10 hottest years on record have occurred. Many studies have shown that similar changes in the waters of the North Atlantic in geological time have often plunged Europe into an ice age, sometimes bringing the change in as little as a decade.
The National Academy of Sciences says that the jump occurs in the same way as "the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips a switch and turns on a light". Once the switch has occurred the new, hostile climate, lasts for decades at least, and possibly centuries.
When the Gulf Stream abruptly turned off about 12,700 years ago, it brought about a 1,300-year cold period, known as the Younger Dryas. This froze Britain in continuous permafrost, drove summer temperatures down to 10C and winter ones to -20C, and brought icebergs as far south as Portugal. Europe could not sustain anything like its present population. Droughts struck across the globe, including in Asia, Africa and the American west, as the disruption of the Gulf Stream affected currents worldwide.
Some scientists say that this is the "worst-case scenario" and that the cooling may be less dramatic, with the world's climate "flickering" between colder and warmer states for several decades. But they add that, in practice, this would be almost as catastrophic for agriculture and civilisation.
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden (backed by a Nobel-prize winner and top scientists) have issued similar warnings.
This is a serious issue and it should be looked into. People should not be called insane or laughed at by bringing up the subject -- even if it they say the Gulf Stream may switch. The only conspiracy surrounding the issue are the scientists hired by giant corporations to dismiss the issue.
=======================
Global warming will plunge Britain into new ice age 'within decades'
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
25 January 2004
Britain is likely to be plunged into an ice age within our lifetime by global warming, new research suggests.
A study, which is being taken seriously by top government scientists, has uncovered a change "of remarkable amplitude" in the circulation of the waters of the North Atlantic.
Similar events in pre-history are known to have caused sudden "flips" of the climate, bringing ice ages to northern Europe within a few decades. The development - described as "the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments", by the US Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, which led the research - threatens to turn off the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe's weather mild.
If that happens, Britain and northern Europe are expected to switch abruptly to the climate of Labrador - which is on the same latitude - bringing a nightmare scenario where farmland turns to tundra and winter temperatures drop below -20C. The much-heralded cold snap predicted for the coming week would seem balmy by comparison.
A report by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme in Sweden - launched by Nobel prize-winner Professor Paul Crutzen and other top scientists - warned last week that pollution threatened to "trigger changes with catastrophic consequences" like these.
Scientists have long expected that global warming could, paradoxically, cause a devastating cooling in Europe by disrupting the Gulf Stream, which brings as much heat to Britain in winter as the sun does: the US National Academy of Sciences has even described such abrupt, dramatic changes as "likely". But until now it has been thought that this would be at least a century away.
The new research, by scientists at the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Acquaculture Science at Lowestoft and Canada's Bedford Institute of Oceanography, as well as Woods Hole, indicates that this may already be beginning to happen.
Dr Ruth Curry, the study's lead scientist, says: "This has the potential to change the circulation of the ocean significantly in our lifetime. Northern Europe will likely experience a significant cooling."
Robert Gagosian, the director of Woods Hole, considered one of the world's leading oceanographic institutes, said: "We may be approaching a threshold that would shut down [the Gulf Stream] and cause abrupt climate changes.
"Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates." The scientists, who studied the composition of the waters of the Atlantic from Greenland to Tierra del Fuego, found that they have become "very much" saltier in the tropics and subtropics and "very much" fresher towards the poles over the past 50 years.
This is alarming because the Gulf Stream is driven by cold, very salty water sinking in the North Atlantic. This pulls warm surface waters northwards, forming the current.
The change is described as the "fingerprint" of global warming. As the world heats up, more water evaporates from the tropics and falls as rain in temperate and polar regions, making the warm waters saltier and the cold ones fresher. Melting polar ice adds more fresh water.
Ominously, the trend has accelerated since 1990, during which time the 10 hottest years on record have occurred. Many studies have shown that similar changes in the waters of the North Atlantic in geological time have often plunged Europe into an ice age, sometimes bringing the change in as little as a decade.
The National Academy of Sciences says that the jump occurs in the same way as "the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips a switch and turns on a light". Once the switch has occurred the new, hostile climate, lasts for decades at least, and possibly centuries.
When the Gulf Stream abruptly turned off about 12,700 years ago, it brought about a 1,300-year cold period, known as the Younger Dryas. This froze Britain in continuous permafrost, drove summer temperatures down to 10C and winter ones to -20C, and brought icebergs as far south as Portugal. Europe could not sustain anything like its present population. Droughts struck across the globe, including in Asia, Africa and the American west, as the disruption of the Gulf Stream affected currents worldwide.
Some scientists say that this is the "worst-case scenario" and that the cooling may be less dramatic, with the world's climate "flickering" between colder and warmer states for several decades. But they add that, in practice, this would be almost as catastrophic for agriculture and civilisation.
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Guest
oh, I think I read that article yesterday. See, its not just the Pentagon saying it WILL happen. But besides that, you can't deny that the Gulf Stream will not EVENTUALLY shutdown (eventually meaning sometime again before the end of earth. There will eentually be no Gulf Stream either, due to the shift of continents.
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x-y-no
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IIRC, the Younger Dryas event was associated with the sudden shift of drainage from Lake Aggasiz from the Missisippi river to the St. Lawrence when the glacial boundary crept back far enough for that to happen. That was a far larger discharge of fresh water into the N. Atlantic than any which seems possible today.
It's questionable whether a shutdown of the Atlantic circulation is possible with today's more moderate rate of fresh water influx.
It's questionable whether a shutdown of the Atlantic circulation is possible with today's more moderate rate of fresh water influx.
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Fire in the Sky
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salinity
The information regarding salinity and it's effect on the current was something I think is relavent. The biggest thing with climate change (provided you believe it is a true phenomena) is that everything is interactive (ocean currents, ambient temperatures, storm patterns) and as things progress, we will see shifts world wide on a whole variety of things. The current drought in the western US, while not necessarily abnormal, is much harsher than anything in the past 100 years. Is this due to climate change? It could be a contributing factor. The winters have been shorter and snow melt in the mountains progressively earlier for the past 10-15 years. This is change water cycles and certainly enhancing the magnitude of the drought. That combined with and growing populations much larger than at any point in recorded history in that part of the country cannot help.
I doubt we will see a complete shut off of the Gulf Stream, but if the current were to change or go deeper in the northern regions, it could have a very dramatic temperature drop and make living conditions in areas which are somewhat mild due to the current, much harsher.
Interesting discussion.
Mark
I doubt we will see a complete shut off of the Gulf Stream, but if the current were to change or go deeper in the northern regions, it could have a very dramatic temperature drop and make living conditions in areas which are somewhat mild due to the current, much harsher.
Interesting discussion.
Mark
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Okay, now I feel better. So when the polarity reverses, the Gulf stream will probably change too.
having a difference of opinion is part of debate and discussion. if you dont agree that someone has a right to disagree with you then you arent really encouraging discussion either.
you can disagree with someone without hurling personal insults. guess the person i'm referring to is no longer here. (thanks for the PM, Lindaloo).
having a difference of opinion is part of debate and discussion. if you dont agree that someone has a right to disagree with you then you arent really encouraging discussion either.
you can disagree with someone without hurling personal insults. guess the person i'm referring to is no longer here. (thanks for the PM, Lindaloo).
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x-y-no
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This is from WHOI's FAQ on abrupt climate change:
Q. Still, is there scientific evidence that climate change can take place within the span of a decade?
A. Abrupt climate change—taking place over the interval of a decade—is considered possible because several times in the past, discharges of freshwater from melting ice appear to have changed ocean circulation and thus climate. Global warming today is melting ice and increasing precipitation and run-off at high latitudes, which is contributing to North Atlantic waters becoming fresher (less salty).
However, models of the ocean disagree on whether this will disrupt the North Atlantic Current. No models predict an abrupt shutdown in North Atlantic circulation in the near future. Some predict an intensified current and accelerated warming instead of cooling. Even if the North Atlantic Current is deflected by a thickening lens of fresh water, only a modest change in circulation is predicted by other models. The degree of this change and its climate effect depend on when the ocean circulation is interrupted. If it happens in less than 50 years or so, we might anticipate a modest regional cooling. If it happens after 50 years or more, the cooling may be enough to mitigate the effects of increasing global warming in the North Atlantic region but would not result in widespread cooling compared to today’s climate.
Present day model predictions are sensitive to their treatment of oceanic mixing processes, an area of active research that promises substantial progress in the next decade. Similarly, we are just beginning to deploy the instruments needed to understand the ongoing changes in the oceanic water cycle that will have a climate effect. While the paleoclimatic record has proven the importance of the ocean to the climate system (see: http://www.whoi.edu/media/2004_mcmanus_abruptclimate.html), we still have much to learn about the workings of the vast, unexplored and complex ocean before we can make reliable climate predictions.
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/abruptclimate_dayafter.html
And here's the WHOI press release on the latest research:
http://www.whoi.edu/media/saltchange.html
Q. Still, is there scientific evidence that climate change can take place within the span of a decade?
A. Abrupt climate change—taking place over the interval of a decade—is considered possible because several times in the past, discharges of freshwater from melting ice appear to have changed ocean circulation and thus climate. Global warming today is melting ice and increasing precipitation and run-off at high latitudes, which is contributing to North Atlantic waters becoming fresher (less salty).
However, models of the ocean disagree on whether this will disrupt the North Atlantic Current. No models predict an abrupt shutdown in North Atlantic circulation in the near future. Some predict an intensified current and accelerated warming instead of cooling. Even if the North Atlantic Current is deflected by a thickening lens of fresh water, only a modest change in circulation is predicted by other models. The degree of this change and its climate effect depend on when the ocean circulation is interrupted. If it happens in less than 50 years or so, we might anticipate a modest regional cooling. If it happens after 50 years or more, the cooling may be enough to mitigate the effects of increasing global warming in the North Atlantic region but would not result in widespread cooling compared to today’s climate.
Present day model predictions are sensitive to their treatment of oceanic mixing processes, an area of active research that promises substantial progress in the next decade. Similarly, we are just beginning to deploy the instruments needed to understand the ongoing changes in the oceanic water cycle that will have a climate effect. While the paleoclimatic record has proven the importance of the ocean to the climate system (see: http://www.whoi.edu/media/2004_mcmanus_abruptclimate.html), we still have much to learn about the workings of the vast, unexplored and complex ocean before we can make reliable climate predictions.
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/abruptclimate_dayafter.html
And here's the WHOI press release on the latest research:
http://www.whoi.edu/media/saltchange.html
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CaluWxBill
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Great information, I think this shows, that global climate change at an abrubt pace is a REAL possibility. but, another thing to see is what kind of an effect we have on the climate, it may be significant or it may be insignificant, regardless, it would be good to know. But, the most important thing to know, is how the climate will change, with this information we can prepare for the changes.
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Fire in the Sky
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Links
Good post x-y-no 
Here are a few more resources for the research minded folks:
EPA Climate Action Report 2002: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BNJ9A/$File/appD.pdf
and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change:
http://www.pewclimate.org/
The Pew Center has a similar article on the possibility of abrupt climate change through a review of "The Day After Tomorrow".
We definitely live in a changing world, be it due to climate change or politics. Have a great one!
Mark
Here are a few more resources for the research minded folks:
EPA Climate Action Report 2002: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BNJ9A/$File/appD.pdf
and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change:
http://www.pewclimate.org/
The Pew Center has a similar article on the possibility of abrupt climate change through a review of "The Day After Tomorrow".
We definitely live in a changing world, be it due to climate change or politics. Have a great one!
Mark
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donsutherland1
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Several points of caution before one accepts a doom-and-gloom scenario that Greenland's ice is going to suddenly melt--within our lifetimes--and result in abrupt climate change or even accept a single hypothesis for the ongoing warming.
Currently, the mean temperature in Central Greenland is around -31.0°C (-23.8°F). That's a 0.85°C rise over the last 500 years.
However, a look at Greenland's GISP2 ice core sample reveals that several points are in order:
1) Over the past 10,000 years, most periods have been warmer than the current one. In fact, if one includes the entire 1500-present period, the current period is the coldest of the past 10,000 years:
Timeframe................................ Temp.C
8000-7500 yrs ago.....................-29.5
3000-3500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9000-8500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9500-9000 yrs ago.....................-30.0
7000-6500 yrs ago.....................-30.1
2000-2500 yrs ago.....................-30.2
10000-9500 yrs ago................... -30.3
6000-5500 yrs ago.....................-30.4
5500-5000 yrs ago.....................-30.5
7500-7000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
3500-4000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
2500-3000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
4000-4500 yrs ago.....................-30.7
6500-6000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
1500-2000 yrs ago.....................-30.8
8500-8000 yrs ago.....................-31.2
5000-4500 yrs ago.....................-31.2
500-1000 yrs ago.......................-31.5
1000-1500 yrs ago.....................-31.5
0-500 yrs ago............................-31.9
So, what this might well suggest is that the recent warming is not an unusual recovery.
2) There has also been a more dramatic rise in the 500-year average temperature than what is currently taking place. The period 8000-7500 years ago was 1.8°C (3.24°F) warmer than the period 8500-8000 years ago.
3) During a 394-year period from roughly 6214 B.C. to 5820 B.C., the mean temperature in central Greenland rose 3.74°C (6.73°F) from -32.4422°C (-26.4°F) to 28.702°C (-19.7°F)--the warmest on record.
4) From roughly 2000 years ago to 9800 years ago, the mean temperature in central Greenland was frequently above -30°C (-22°F).
This data from Greenland's ice core samples raises several questions:
1) Is the ongoing warming a mere continuation of a long-term warming trend that has fluctuated somewhat over the past 10,000 but continues?
2) If Greenland's ice did not melt to the extent that it disrupted global climate to the extent that a new Ice Age actually resulted when its climate was notably warmer than the current one, what new data suggests that this will become more likely until or unless Greenland has an even warmer climate?
3) If Greenland experienced explosive warming, including rise of 6.74°F in its climate during a less than 400-year period before the climate resumed its cooling, what drove that warmup? What changed to reverse it? If so, could this factor be driving the ongoing warmup and will a similar reversal occur at some point down the road?
In my view, the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere does play a role in promoting warming. But the extent of its role against the backdrop of non-human factors remains quite uncertain. Moreover, there is past precedent for a warmer Greenland climate and more explosive warming than what is currently ongoing. That needs to be explained before one can conclude with a high degree of confidence that most or even much of the ongoing warming has been driven by the buildup of CO2.
Currently, the mean temperature in Central Greenland is around -31.0°C (-23.8°F). That's a 0.85°C rise over the last 500 years.
However, a look at Greenland's GISP2 ice core sample reveals that several points are in order:
1) Over the past 10,000 years, most periods have been warmer than the current one. In fact, if one includes the entire 1500-present period, the current period is the coldest of the past 10,000 years:
Timeframe................................ Temp.C
8000-7500 yrs ago.....................-29.5
3000-3500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9000-8500 yrs ago.....................-29.9
9500-9000 yrs ago.....................-30.0
7000-6500 yrs ago.....................-30.1
2000-2500 yrs ago.....................-30.2
10000-9500 yrs ago................... -30.3
6000-5500 yrs ago.....................-30.4
5500-5000 yrs ago.....................-30.5
7500-7000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
3500-4000 yrs ago.....................-30.6
2500-3000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
4000-4500 yrs ago.....................-30.7
6500-6000 yrs ago.....................-30.7
1500-2000 yrs ago.....................-30.8
8500-8000 yrs ago.....................-31.2
5000-4500 yrs ago.....................-31.2
500-1000 yrs ago.......................-31.5
1000-1500 yrs ago.....................-31.5
0-500 yrs ago............................-31.9
So, what this might well suggest is that the recent warming is not an unusual recovery.
2) There has also been a more dramatic rise in the 500-year average temperature than what is currently taking place. The period 8000-7500 years ago was 1.8°C (3.24°F) warmer than the period 8500-8000 years ago.
3) During a 394-year period from roughly 6214 B.C. to 5820 B.C., the mean temperature in central Greenland rose 3.74°C (6.73°F) from -32.4422°C (-26.4°F) to 28.702°C (-19.7°F)--the warmest on record.
4) From roughly 2000 years ago to 9800 years ago, the mean temperature in central Greenland was frequently above -30°C (-22°F).
This data from Greenland's ice core samples raises several questions:
1) Is the ongoing warming a mere continuation of a long-term warming trend that has fluctuated somewhat over the past 10,000 but continues?
2) If Greenland's ice did not melt to the extent that it disrupted global climate to the extent that a new Ice Age actually resulted when its climate was notably warmer than the current one, what new data suggests that this will become more likely until or unless Greenland has an even warmer climate?
3) If Greenland experienced explosive warming, including rise of 6.74°F in its climate during a less than 400-year period before the climate resumed its cooling, what drove that warmup? What changed to reverse it? If so, could this factor be driving the ongoing warmup and will a similar reversal occur at some point down the road?
In my view, the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere does play a role in promoting warming. But the extent of its role against the backdrop of non-human factors remains quite uncertain. Moreover, there is past precedent for a warmer Greenland climate and more explosive warming than what is currently ongoing. That needs to be explained before one can conclude with a high degree of confidence that most or even much of the ongoing warming has been driven by the buildup of CO2.
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NorthGaWeather
Re: Links
Fire in the Sky wrote:Good post x-y-no
Here are a few more resources for the research minded folks:
EPA Climate Action Report 2002: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BNJ9A/$File/appD.pdf
and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change:
http://www.pewclimate.org/
The Pew Center has a similar article on the possibility of abrupt climate change through a review of "The Day After Tomorrow".
We definitely live in a changing world, be it due to climate change or politics. Have a great one!
Mark
So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur. Wouldn't that break several rules of Thermodynamics? Also the guy who wrote the book which was made into the movie claims Aliens told him this was going to happen.
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x-y-no
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Re: Links
NorthGaWeather wrote:So you believe something like "The day after tommorrow" will occur.
Don't know how you got that idea. Neither the link I gave nor the ones Mark gave say anything of the sort. Nor did either of us in our posts.
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