What is your forecast/thinking on global temperatures?

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

What is your forecast/thinking on global temperatures?

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:44 pm

How warm,cool or stable will earth climate be over the next 20-50 years. Based on current trends we are so far running near 1998,2005 this year. With a cooler ocean=warmer overall land. Even with the solar min it appears to be still rising. I think we will have to have the next solar max coming in much lower; which can start a trend...Also the fact that the sun only causes 30 percent of the current warming, also based on a chart I was looking at that shows it becoming less of a factor then it was 30-40 years ago. I think once we get back into a less solar output trend, it will slowly turn this around. I feel that solar cycle 24 will be much weaker then solar cyclone 23,22,21,20. In the 20th century the global temperature warmed up 1.3f/.6c...I believe by 2010 we will be near 1.4 overall above. Then by 2040 we will be close to 1.10-1.15f above 20th century(start of the innerglaciel). My range of temperature is pretty much below what we are having today by 2040...Highest 1.25 or -.05 cooler then today...Lowest possibly upwards of .40 or .40f below 2010 forecasted(by me) temperature.

2007-2010 .08-.10f warm up
2010-2015 very stable overall
2016-2025 -.05-.15f cool down
2026-2040 -.25-.30f cool down


At this rate it would not cause a ice age...We would need at least 2.0f+ overall drop to bring us into little ice age levels.
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x-y-no
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:16 am

Increased insolation did contribute to the late 19th through early 20th century warming, but has been pretty much flat since the 1950s. I see no support for the claim that "the sun only causes 30 percent of the current warming" - in fact no support for the claim that it's causing any of the current warming.

My prediction would be for warming in the mid to upper part of the IPCC Fourth Assesment Review range (barring extraordinary progress on reducing fossil fuel use worldwide, which I'm not optimistic about).
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Re: What is your forecast/thinking on global temperatures?

#3 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:33 pm

May be some slight warming (especially near the poles and in and around big cities), but overall I do not see anything extreme coming in the next 50 years. Despite all the alarmism, I think we will actually be quite similar to today in five decades..may be a slight bit warmer/cooler, but not much overall change. This is just my opinion though, and there will be no way to tell for sure until we see what actually happens. Hopefully advances in science and technology will make my prediction a reality.
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