Severe Weather Central High Plains

DISCUSSION...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE ACROSS SWRN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT
50-60 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE EXPECTED ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

#8 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:51 am

22 hail reports yesterday. Today Oklahoma and Texas get involved too.

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:04 am

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... rs_640x480

#10 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:30 pm

A Tstorm watch mainly in Kansas with the SPC hinting at a tornado watch for Oklahoma.

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Sun Oct 14, 2007 5:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:A Tstorm watch mainly in Kansas with the SPC hinting at a tornado watch for Oklahoma.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=154

#12 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 15, 2007 5:20 pm

Very cool/impressive low over Western Iowa. Deepening this evening to 1005mb.

#13 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:59 pm

Now we wait for the main event...likely Thursday. I think Wednesday will be a upper SLGT/lower MDT day, and Thursday an upper MDT/HIGH day with PDS watches. After that it is hard to tell at this point.

#14 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:06 pm

GFS is hinting at a <990mb low out of this.

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:GFS is hinting at a <990mb low out of this.

They bring it down to about (or perhaps a bit below) 980mb.

WindRunner · #16 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:20 am

Wow . . . never thought that this could make me so happy . . .

#17 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 10:27 am

WindRunner wrote:Wow . . . never thought that this could make me so happy . . .

That could be you on Friday...

chadtm80 · #18 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:37 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=152

artist · #19 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:15 am

I thought I would paste here what one of the resident mets had to say about this area this morning - he posted it with his tropical analysis (in that forum)he does each weekday morning for the tropics-

Closer to home, a MAJOR SEVERE WX OUTBREAK is set to
occur today in the OK/KS/MO/AR area. I forecasted
this 3 days earlier. There is a moderate risk in
these areas, with the possibility of EF2-EF5 in that
area of 10% within a 25 mile point, depicted as a
hatched area in the outlook map. This is better
explained in the SPC Convective Outlook Maps. This
area moves into the Great Lakes region tomorrow, and
another chance of Severe Wx exists Fri./Sat. as the
entire eastern 1/4 of the U.S. will be under a SLIGHT
risk area (Convective Outlook Map).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

"Storm"

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=98349

WindRunner · #20 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:26 pm

Still looking very nice on the Day 2/3 outlooks . . . should be a fun way to end the week for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

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