Won't Get THAT Cold
Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2003 9:37 am
The GFS is going too cold with the temperatures again. For SE LA, temps will get into the the mid to upper 20s north of the lake and temps around 30 south.
THANKS FOR COORDINATION WITH DULUTH MINNESOTA. AFTER COORD CALL...IT
WAS REASONED THAT THE AVN WAS SHOWING AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TOO
COLD FOR THE LAST 4 RUNS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. SINCE
THIS IS WHERE THE CAA WILL BE COMING FROM...WILL TAKE AVN TEMPS UP
ACCORDINGLY. THIS ACTUALLY SETS THE TEMPS WITHIN THE REALM OF THE
ETA NUMBERS. THE ETA HAS A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR HANDLING THESE
CONTINENTAL AIR MASSES WELL. THEREFORE...WILL HUG THE ETA NUMBERS
AND REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. SNOW PACK IS LITTLE TO NON-EXISTENT IN
AND AROUND MINNESOTA TOO. THE AIR MASS WILL BASICALLY OOZE THIS WAY
AND MODIFICATION PROCESSES SHOULD TAKE HOLD KEEPING TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. SINCE SNOWPACK CLIMATOLOGY IS ALSO
USED IN THE MODELS...THE PHYSICS MAY BE USING NUMBERS WHICH ARE
TAINTING THE RESULTS...BASICALLY KEEPING TEMPS TOO COLD. FOR THESE
REASONS THE TEMPS WILL BE BROUGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANY GUIDANCE
NUMBERS BUT STILL SHOWING A HARD FREEZE MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW ORLEANS AREA WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH...FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD BE
HARD TO GET TO SO HAVE OPTED TO BRING TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 30 WITH
LAKE HEATING OVER THE CITY.