Watch out - SE MO, W TN, NE AR, N MS
Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2003 3:42 pm
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, EXTREME SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A SPLITTING THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SERN MO ALONG SURFACE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPING OVER NRN AR/SRN MO SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. VAD/PROFILER DATA SHOW 40-45 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025.
...WEISS
