STORM2K

No wonder it's currently a steam bath outside my home west of Atlanta (84.2° F/ humidity 70%/ dewpoint 74°

Look at the rainfall amounts I've measured lately:

Rainfall in July: 8.37"
Rainfall in June: 15.23"
Rainfall in May: 9.79"

A total of 33.39" of rain has fallen here in less than three months....and normal for the three month period May-July is around 12-13"...so we've had nearly 3 times normal precip the past 90 days :o

In addition, 48.12" of rain has been measured at my location since January 1st (and normal annual precip in Douglasville is only 50.48" -- so we've experienced a years worth in 7 months :o

Last autumn and early winter was also extremely wet in this area....since September 1st, 2002...a whopping 77.19" of rain has falled at this location; or around 30" inches (or 2 1/2 feet) above normal. :o :o

PW

Unless I misunderstood Kirk Meluish this AM, there are parts of GA that have already had 90" for the year :o :o

Correct me if I am wrong on that, just heard it out of the corner of my ear.

I've recorded just over 36" at my location. That's about a foot shy of your total, but still running above average.

That's a very common theme across the Southeast this year...looking at some estimated totals for the first 7 months in GA and SC are generally averaging anywhere from 30"-60" already ... and 1 year totals are showing up quite phenomenal. Some places, as ConstructionWx already posted over 90", with a general 70"-80" for a fiscal one year total. :o

SF

Yeah...and serious hurricane season is just about to begin for the southeast and Gulf coast :o :o

JetMaxx wrote:Yeah...and serious hurricane season is just about to begin for the southeast and Gulf coast :o :o

Yep, typical the last 5 years ... feast or famine.

Interestingly enough ... Hurricanes Bertha, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene in the 1998-1999 season came during the incipient years of the long-term drought ... and actually left North Carolina on the dividing line of drought-deluge.

There was practically nothing, tropicalwise, except Allison in 2001 which moved across the Southeast, which only brought temporary relief to the drought, which, by that timeframe was fully-established and only got worse in the first half of 2002.

Then came the pattern change. And the rest is rainfall history.

SF

And the $64,000 question

Will the precip last through the fall and winter?

With the exception of January, it was a very wet winter here.

Does anyone see the pattern changing? Any teleconnection guru's see anything?

Sorry RP, but I'm not that intelligent (duh!

My guess is it will stay wet for a couple years...at least. The drought lasted from Sept 98' to August 02', so I look for the excessive rainfall period to last another year or two (or longer).

I remember back in 99' when venturing to Oregon to see my new nephew, and nearly froze to death -- leaving 98° dry, dusty Atlanta and flew into a frozen July tundra that looked like "Land of the Lost" -- snow all over the mountains...and the only time in my life I've seen it snow after April (at Timberline Lodge on July 2nd)...or wore a jacket while watching July 4th fireworks (several Portland residents told me it was the chilliest July 4th they'd seen in many years).

This year everything's flip-flopped. While we almost drown and haven't reached 90° yet -- today little sis in Portland experienced 100°+ heat for the the sixth day this summer....hit 102° there yesterday and 101° at her home today.

Just wondering does anyone think that this winter will make up for years of no significant winters in the southeast? I think it is only a matter of time before we really see a paralyzing snowfall especially after an active hurricane season. Just a thought since it seems like the gulf is bound to open up in the colder months!

I don't know how much rain has fallen at my home, but heard a Carrollton radio station report several days ago that over 50 inches of rain has fell in portions of Carroll and Heard county just to my west since New Years 2003.

GAStorm wrote:Just wondering does anyone think that this winter will make up for years of no significant winters in the southeast? I think it is only a matter of time before we really see a paralyzing snowfall especially after an active hurricane season. Just a thought since it seems like the gulf is bound to open up in the colder months!

Well, if the general pattern holds until winter ... I would say yes, but ... generally, this kind of pattern doesn't last over a year.

In regards to an active Tropical Season ... this concerns me quite a bit, actually ... especially in regards to potential flooding rains already on top of the saturated Southeast ... as JetMaxx, and others have alluded to, a lot of rivers are above flood stage already, and the grounds are super-saturated from all the rain ... an Allison-like storm, or Alberto, will likely cause a catastrophic flood situation ...

Edit: Current Palmer Moisture Index



SF

Hey SF,

I just noticed you posted this after I started a new thread. I guess I am hoping for another cold and stormy winter since last winter didn't give us anything but a dusting of snow. I do keep up with hurricanes as well, but I am always keeping up with upcoming winter predictions since I love the snow. Anyway, thanks for your post!

Well, if the general pattern holds until winter ... I would say yes, but ... generally, this kind of pattern doesn't last over a year.

In regards to an active Tropical Season ... this concerns me quite a bit, actually ... especially in regards to potential flooding rains already on top of the saturated Southeast ... as JetMaxx, and others have alluded to, a lot of rivers are above flood stage already, and the grounds are super-saturated from all the rain ... an Allison-like storm, or Alberto, will likely cause a catastrophic flood situation ...

That is definitely a scary picture if any tropical systems make their way here! :o I think there will be a really good chance at seeing some serious flooding even without a tropical system!