STORM2K

gatorcane wrote:Well here we go again with the 12Z Euro at 192 hours bringing a freeze down into the peninsula. The GFS isn’t nearly this cold but the CMC has a similar idea as the Euro. The NAO looks to stay positive so maybe the Euro is overdoing things:

https://i.postimg.cc/8c6kY16t/ecmwf-T2m-seus-57.png

Yep, this time the GFS wins. It has been back and forth between the two models.
Enjoy the next cold front, Spring is coming early with warm temps coming back with vengeance.

One last blast of cold and then a great warm up...we will be basking in glorious warmth by midweek...considering the calendar..it will be spring.

I know it's technically still early, but...........I'm calling it. With that last brief cooldown, winter is over. For much of Florida, anyway. Models showing very little as well as positive NAO, looks like our old friend the SW Atlantic ridge is going to dominate, with only short lived mild cooldowns every week or so. Welcome to Spring 2022, I think.

We're going to range from somewhat above normal to full scale torch for awhile. Strong east wind will favor torching on the western side of the peninsula with some mid 80's expected...we're going to push some record highs..it's going to feel really nice after that cool stretch

We'll have the torch this week, but it looks like it will be passed back to Old Man Winter next week as GFS MEX temps are showing 43 in Tampa on the morning of Tuesday March 1.

The NWS Miami did mention a possible shortwave pushing the front through next week. Hopefully it materializes because once it hits 90 there is no turning back.

No more cooldown for next week winter is done.The models are backing off and with no surprise with a semi permanent positive NAO.

boca wrote:No more cooldown for next week winter is done.The models are backing off and with no surprise with a semi permanent positive NAO.

Not just the +NAO, the MJO is moving into phase 4,5 & 6 through the next 14-21 days as I type this, winter is over for FL.

torch will end and be replaced by a nice refreshing cooldown with temps moderating soon thereafter. really nice weather overall. March/April offer our best weather imo..

Still some fronts but no real cold air push. PNA still positive for now, but NAO also pretty strongly positive, so makes sense. I think my prediction will hold.

SE ridge is back with a vengeance longer term. We'll be lucky to snag near normal days let alone meaningful chill. Persistent warmth is likely here to stay. might have some fire issues this spring as we're drying out fast

The last time the NAO was negative was mid December wow.

Massive heat ridge building in the southeast. Torch warning after a few days of milder weather. We're going to lose our shelf water chill and resultant free air conditioning earlier than usual at this rate around here. Still with decadent warmth and endless sun...it's a great pattern

It's so funny, about 2 weeks ago, the long range models were actually showing decent cold for this minor March 1 frontal passage. Now, the frontal passage is essentially just taking us back to normal for a couple days.

When it comes to the peninsula, it's almost always easier to trust the long range models when they show warmth, less so when they show cold 2 weeks out!

Looks like some serious warm air coming March 8. Upper 80s and low 90s on west coast, well into the 90s in interior Cuba and the Yucatan.

 https://twitter.com/PaulFox13/status/1499570546723409942

-PNA & +NAO means models coming to reality little by little, backing away from their forecasts of lows in the 30s across central FL next Sunday morning.

Summertime thunderstorms in March today!

I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?

Iceresistance wrote:I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?

Hot and Humid

Cat5James wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:I'm going to be in Orlando, Florida in Early May, what's the usual weather patterns down there?

Hot and Humid

That's why I'm planning to bring a LOT of Water Bottles down there!

There can be storms in Central Florida in Early May, but not as much compared to the rainy season is density, but intensity is anyone's guess.