STORM2K

According to several models, we (the deep south and Gulf Coast states) could be in for not only very cold temps but hopefully some winter precip all the way down to the Gulf Coast. I am new to this board so any comments will be appreciated. One eye (another weather enthusiast)

hi one eye! I'm from Biloxi, and would very much like to know what others think as well. From what I get from it, we could see some frozen precip next week. Wouldn't count on it though...usually never happens when they say it will. Got sleet Saturday night though! Hey, better than nothing. But I prefer the white stuff myself!

IMO, you are reading the models correctly. Below are two posts I did at TWC winter message board.

I've been looking down the road towards the end of next week. I know everyone is focused on this week's/weekend's now, but we are looking, at least in the Texas area at a possibly, no probably a SIGNIFICANT weather event, temperature and precipitation wise in the SE Texas area for the 23rd-26th.

Even though it is supposed to get into the mid to upper 20's for lows Fri. - Sun. here with a VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITYOF SOME SLEET late thurs/early Fri. what we need to be watching is about 9-10 days out. If the current models(Not all of them-I've checked 3)verify we are looking at temps below freezing in this area for up to 72 hours with the PROBABILITY OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET during that period. THIS, IN FACT, COULD BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST! I am also basing some of my thinking on Bastardi's long term discussion.

This is just my take on the long range at this point and I do realize that long range predictions are dangerous. there are many others on this board with much better expertise at this type of weather forecasting and I would like others opinions on this "down the road" event and how significant it will be and in what ways and where.

Peace and Grace to you,

Let's see here-"Rainstorm" thinks we won't have snow because ?

Some local SE TX OCMs are "hyping"(?-my words) the cold next week(which I agree with).

And the "pattern is expected to shift with no huge pool of air in Canada"? Look further N(& S)across the Pole for your cold air. There is nothing to block it coming across and systems in the pacific should "enhance" the "Crossing" of this air(the -75f in Siberia) to this side of the globe. I consider(and so do a lot of other people apparently)the pool of cold over Canada and AK to be significant expecially if it is reinforced by the "trans siberian express" like we had in 1989! Oh, and the only "shift" I've read about so far in this pattern is for the blocking high to move further W and "open the door" for the cold air to plunge S. Bastardi thinks we will have a major event across much of the South unless I read his long term incorrectly(which I have been know to do occsionally).

So there is a little more detail in my thinking(be it ever so humble). I have looked at a few more models and will continue to watch. At this point I hold by a SIGNIFICANT COLD EVENT with temps below 20f almost to the coast if not to the coast(late next week, not this week). As always frozen precipitation chances will depend on the timing(especially in the S!!!), which at a minimum will be close and difficult to call, but I am not backing off that yet either. Long term is dangerous and very iffy but it does give us something to watch and "hone our skills" on. Keep the analyses coming!!! I'll do the same the closer it gets.

Not a lot more to say aobut it at this point, but keep your eyes and ears peeled! THERE WILL BE MORE TO COME!!! Even though it is still a week and a half out, idications at this point are that it could be a record breaker! :director:

Good to see you posting. Thanks for you views on the long-range froecast for the deep south 10 days down the road. I hope they verify.

But first we have to get through this first artic blast - today, Friday and Saturday will be our coldest days from this blast.

Its a warm 57 right now - I expect the front to be through the Houston area in the afternoon hours. Windy and sudden temp drops will be in store for us.

Keep posting Vbhoutex and keep me updated.

God Bless.
Patricia

ticka1 wrote:Its a warm 57 right now - I expect the front to be through the Houston area in the afternoon hours. Windy and sudden temp drops will be in store for us.

Wow, it's 57° there now? It's only 31° here now (8:05 AM CST). Our high is predicted to be 55° today. Then the real cold kicks in tomorrow. Brrrr. I sure hope next week's forecast pans out with some precip included......

ticka1 wrote:Good to see you posting. Thanks for you views on the long-range froecast for the deep south 10 days down the road. I hope they verify.

But first we have to get through this first artic blast - today, Friday and Saturday will be our coldest days from this blast.

Its a warm 57 right now - I expect the front to be through the Houston area in the afternoon hours. Windy and sudden temp drops will be in store for us.

Keep posting Vbhoutex and keep me updated.

God Bless.
Patricia

Thanks Patricia! I won't bore the board with why I've been absent. too much too little time!

I continue to look at both events, now and next week. This current one will come in colder than initially thought(lows around 25-28), which does not bode well for next week IMO. I keep seeing discussions, and models that literally SCARE me when we look at next week. Once again I must say long range forecasting is at best iffy, but if it verifies!--WOOOOOW!! :o The long range AVN is showing Houston going below freezing on the 24th and not coming back above freezing till the 31st!!! :o I find that hard to believe, but time will tell. It also shows snow, sleet, and ice off and on during this same period. Seeing and hearing what I am at this point I would have to go with the earlier progs for now, but I will continue to watch it closely as both DT and JB are already hyping it. Guess it is time to email DT. I must agree with DT-this is one of the best set-ups in years for a major WINTER EVENT in SE TX and across the entire south. That is what put me onto this probability in the first place. For now we leave it here. STAY TUNED!!! :scrambleup: :director:

full force is this scenario pans out? Can we try for some snow days out of it LOL.

Enjoy your posts vb - I know about the too little time - too much to do syndrome - its something I deal with all the time.

Let me know what DT says. Don't know if you know it or now - but Pro-Accuweather is going live on Monday and it will cost $10 a month. So J. Bastardi will have to get his word out via the paying members - which isn't going to be me.

Looks like the front has arrived - now waiting for the fridged temps.

If that verifies Houston not being above freezing from the 25th to the 31st - that could gives us lots of things we haven't dealt with in Houstonn since the late 80's.

Keep me posted please VBhoutex.

God Bless.
Patricia

Enjoyed reading your post also please keep us updated
Thanks

It is still way too early to determine whether or not we will get any snow. But the next shot of cold air will be some of the coldest weather parts of the south have seen in years. This may be the year...

Thanks for the informative post Vbhoutex. Hopefully all the ingredients will come together. Here along MS coast it seems we get a big winter event every 10 years. New Years Eve (1963), Whole Gulf Coast snowstorm in '73, snow in 83, Superstorm of '93 and hopefully all of us snow whishers will have one in 2003! Stay warm and God Bless everyone!