STORM2K

This caught me by surprise!



Special Weather Statement


POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA- WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE- EAST BATON ROUGE- ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES- ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON- ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL- PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS... LIVONIA... ST. FRANCISVILLE... JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG... MONTPELIER... HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA... BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL... MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE... PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE... PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE... GONZALES... DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART... LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE... LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE... RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND... LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO... METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS... BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE... VIOLET... HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC... MONTEGUT... GALLIANO...CUT OFF... GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR... EMPIRE... YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE... WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY... CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN... PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS... WAVELAND... DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI... PASCAGOULA... OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN 124 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007
...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE YEAR 2006 ENDED ON A WET NOTE FOR THE GULF SOUTH AND IT APPEARS THAT 2007 WILL START WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL FOR THE GULF STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A WARM FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS STILL NEARLY THREE DAYS OUT...EARLY INDICATIONS IN FORECAST MODELS...HYDROMETEOROLICAL PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EXPERTISE SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL COVERAGE OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...BUT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND MOST RIVERS SWOLLEN TO BANK FULL OR ALREADY IN FLOOD STATE... ANY LENGTHY PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD POSE A FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... PARTICULARLY INTERESTS ALONG OR NEAR THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. IF FORECAST PATTERNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

PREPAREDNESS MEASURES CAN BE CARRIED OUT TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESS OWNERS...AS WELL AS MUNICIPAL SERVICES...ARE ADVISED TO MAKE USE OF THE DRY COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE RAINS TO CLEAR DEBRIS AND COLLECTED TRASH FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CULVERTS AND CATCH BASINS. RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF RECENT RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.

I found this interesting that we could be seeing the highest PW's ever for January. This is definately representative of an el nino pattern.
We had over 4" of rain on December 30th and looks like we could have a repeat Wednesday and Thursday with another system for the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL START TO 2007 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA TODAY WITH NO CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
GOOD WEATHER WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS THE NEXT MAJOR STORM
SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTING A LIGHT
FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED.

CHANGES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG CUTOFF
LOWS ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS THIS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WITH ECMWF FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MUCH FASTER AND GFS FURTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER. THIS WILL AFFECT TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND IN GENERAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE INLAND
WITH TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH TAKING UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY...AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM
AROUND GALVESTON TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE WARMEST TEMPS
THERE...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS COOLER
TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL NUDGE UP PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND SLOWLY TAPER THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND STRONG HELICITY VALUES
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE INCREDIBLE
MOISTURE LEVELS FORECAST FOR EARLY JANUARY...WITH PWATS CLIMBING
INTO THE 1.75" TO 2" RANGE. A STUDY BY NWS RAPID CITY INDICATES
THESE LEVELS WOULD EXCEED THE MAXIMUM PWATS EVER SEEN ACROSS OUR
CWA FOR EARLY JANUARY. NEEDLESS TO SAY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR ALL AREAS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR THE WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

Afraid I've been reduced to lurker status again. Real-life issues keeping me away.

Anyway, more rain here, and VEEERY muggy. Feels more like a March or April day than a January one.

Guys, have you read the Texas thread? They're talking about a possible MAJOR pattern change. I'm hoping not too major, but at least for some cold weather. We've only had basically 2 snaps of cold this entire winter.

It's not just for TX, is it?

This pattern change everybody keeps talking about had better hurry up. I absolutely hate the pattern we're in now.

AnnularCane wrote:It's not just for TX, is it?

This pattern change everybody keeps talking about had better hurry up. I absolutely hate the pattern we're in now.

Sure beats having another Katrina though!!!

CrazyC83 wrote:

AnnularCane wrote:It's not just for TX, is it?

This pattern change everybody keeps talking about had better hurry up. I absolutely hate the pattern we're in now.

Sure beats having another Katrina though!!!

That name is forbidden to emanate from your keys as long as you live. j/k

Local mets haven't yet mentioned the possible upcoming pattern change. I'm sure they'll jump on it later in the week. Still days out, if it actually happens. The Texas thread in winter weather is full of speculation about it.

Lindaloo wrote:This caught me by surprise!



Special Weather Statement


POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA- WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE- EAST BATON ROUGE- ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES- ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON- ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL- PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS... LIVONIA... ST. FRANCISVILLE... JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG... MONTPELIER... HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA... BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL... MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE... PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE... PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE... GONZALES... DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART... LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE... LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE... RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND... LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO... METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS... BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE... VIOLET... HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC... MONTEGUT... GALLIANO...CUT OFF... GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR... EMPIRE... YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE... WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY... CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN... PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS... WAVELAND... DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI... PASCAGOULA... OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN 124 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007
...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE YEAR 2006 ENDED ON A WET NOTE FOR THE GULF SOUTH AND IT APPEARS THAT 2007 WILL START WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL FOR THE GULF STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PART OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A WARM FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ONSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS STILL NEARLY THREE DAYS OUT...EARLY INDICATIONS IN FORECAST MODELS...HYDROMETEOROLICAL PREDICTION CENTER GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EXPERTISE SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL COVERAGE OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...BUT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND MOST RIVERS SWOLLEN TO BANK FULL OR ALREADY IN FLOOD STATE... ANY LENGTHY PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD POSE A FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... PARTICULARLY INTERESTS ALONG OR NEAR THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. IF FORECAST PATTERNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

PREPAREDNESS MEASURES CAN BE CARRIED OUT TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESS OWNERS...AS WELL AS MUNICIPAL SERVICES...ARE ADVISED TO MAKE USE OF THE DRY COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE RAINS TO CLEAR DEBRIS AND COLLECTED TRASH FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES...CULVERTS AND CATCH BASINS. RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF RECENT RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.

where are you from in mississippi? i am from in wichita kansas .....