STORM2K

Posted: **Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:28 am**

now dont get your hopes up...however I found this AFD very interesting in terms of what the models have been showing for next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A BRIEF COLD SURGE PUSHED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TODAY TO BE A BIT COOLER
THAN FRI. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE WX WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LOWER TD AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FROST IN PROTECTED AREAS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW TEMPS/TD ON
THE BORDER SO WILL NOT MENTION YET SINCE COVERAGE WOULD BE MINIMAL
ANYWAYS. SIMILAR TEMPS/CLOUDS EXPECTED SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UNSETTLED WX THROUGH
EARLY TO MID WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LVL TROF DIGS INTO THE SE. THIS
VERY AMPLIFIED TROF (POSSIBLY BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST
OF FL) WILL TRIGGER A SFC COASTAL LOW BY MON. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OFF THE NC COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS...AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES
INLAND EXPECT A STRONG PRES GRAD TO DEVELOP LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH WED OR THU. EVERY MODEL FROM THE
ECMWF TO THE CANADIAN ALL SHOW A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
COAST...THE POSITION IN RELATION TO OUR COAST HAS VARIED FROM RUN
TO RUN HOWEVER. THIS SMALL YET SIG DIFFERENCE IN LOW POSITIONING
COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OVERCAST AND COLD RAIN OR MOSTLY
SUNNY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COAST. WILL TAKE A BLEND AND LEAN A
BIT TOWARDS THE WETTER/COOLER FCST. THE TEMPS HAVE EVEN BEEN SHOWN
AS LOW AS TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP...TO SOME
MODELS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S. THINK A MOSTLY CLOUDY/LOW
50S/LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FCST SEEMS REASONABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WK.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS IT INTENSIFIES.
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

now...does anyone know the last time eastern NC got wintry precip in Nov? it is setting up to be a cold, windy, rain...however I thought the mention of what the models were showing was interesting...what are they currently showing?

Posted: **Sat Nov 18, 2006 4:09 pm**

"Over the river and through the woods...." I'm jealous! We've got mid 70's forecast for Turkey Day, and while that is lovely chamber-of-commerce weather, I like it cold and nasty on feasting days. Enjoy!

Posted: **Sat Nov 18, 2006 4:51 pm**

A few years ago we had snow in early December. Can't remember what year though.

Posted: **Sat Nov 18, 2006 5:57 pm**

Tstormwatcher wrote:A few years ago we had snow in early December. Can't remember what year though.

In 2000, I had 3" of snow in Raleigh 2-3 days before Thanksgiving! The coolest part was the day before and that morning the forecast just called for "rain", but then it just randomly started snowing and the forecast completely changed.

I think the December storm you are talking about was also in 2000. During that storm I was suppose to get 12-16" in Raleigh and only ended up with a dusting. However, areas to my east received up to 10" from that storm (which I think was either on Dec. 3rd or 4th). I am pretty sure the snow reached the coast for that storm too, which means you likely saw a couple of inches in New Bern.

Posted: **Sun Nov 19, 2006 8:58 am**

New discussion, this one seems a lot more threatening:

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TO THE S AND A COASTAL LOW IS FCST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE GA/FL COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE
DAY MON...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STARTING IN THE S.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A SIG COASTAL
STORM...WITH HPC/ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL SHOWING STRONG WINDS OVER THE
OBX/COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A COOL RAIN LIKELY. THE GFS IS SHOWING
SIG QPF MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT TONED IT DOWN FROM ITS 3 TO 5
INCHES TO ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST ALONG OBX. ELSEWHERE THE
RAIN WILL BE LESS INTENSE...WITH POPS AS LOW AS 40% ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS MON NT THROUGH LATE WED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK...BASICALLY REMOVING ANY INFLUENCE
FROM CLIMATOLOGY IN THE NUMBERS. WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS CAN'T SEE UPPER 50S TO 60S
WITHOUT SOME STRONG WAA WHICH NO MODELS SHOW (EXCEPT THE ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG OBX WHERE WARMER WATERS TEMPS WILL MODIFY TEMPS MORE MILD
THAN INLAND). SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THICKNESSES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK...HOWEVER COULDN'T SEE ANY MORE THAN A STRAY
FLURRY IN THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO WHICH WOULD MELT BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. THESE COOLER THICKNESSES HOWEVER DO FAVOR A
SLIGHT COOLING OF THE TEMPS FROM THE PREV FCST THOUGH...WITH MOST
AREAS INLAND STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S. BASED ON
CONDITIONS IN CURRENT FCST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CARRY A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE OBX AND POSSIBLY A FEW OTHER COUNTIES IN LATER
PACKAGES...AND LIKELY A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. WINDS ALONG OBX ARE
SUSTAINED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR TUE...WHICH BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE IT BEING A SIG COASTAL
STORM...THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME....THANKSGIVING DAY FCST IF LIKELY THE HARDEST TO PIN POINT
SINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE TRANSITION PERIOD. THE WX WILL
IMPROVE SIG THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL...WITH COOL YET SUNNY DAYS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

Posted: **Sun Nov 19, 2006 6:53 pm**

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

NCZ093-095-103-104-200815-
CRAVEN-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...MOREHEAD CITY...
BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...
KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
337 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE COAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE LONG DURATION
OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AND
OVERWASH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS...WEST
ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY TO SOUTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY. WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND WIND
ADVISORIES OR EVEN HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HOWEVER RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST ARE URGED
TO BE PREPARED FOR THIS ADVERSE WEATHER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL
HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.

$$

RF

Great...40+ MPH winds possible...fun...if that happens here, it will be as strong or stronger than Isabel and Ophelia here at my house...

Also, save this AFD...first time I've ever seen a medium term forecast here from Morehead:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...CLR SKIES OVR AREA ATTM. NLY FLO CONTS WI
BNDRY WELL OFFSHR. RUC SHOWG A WV FORMG ON BNDRY THIS EVE OFF HAT.
SHUDNT EFFECT WX OVR ERN NC TNGT.
&&

.MEDIUM TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MDLS NOT IN TOO GUD OF
AGREEMENT WI APPCHG SYS. WV SAT PIX SHOWG UPR JET FORMG OVR THE
DAKOTAS WHICH IS IN GUD AGREEMENT WI OPERATIONAL MDLS. MDLS STRT TO
DIVERGE ON MON WI DVLPMNT AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LO OFF THE GA/FL CST.
GFS IS FRTHR N WI DVLPMNT AND KPS THAT TREND THRU THE FCST PD. GFS
ENSEMBLES ON AWIPS EVEN FRTHR N THAN OPERATIONAL GFS. UKMET...WHICH
IS PREFERRED BY NCEP...PLACEMENT OF SFC FTRS IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
BTWN OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM.

THE SFC LO WL MV N ALNG THE SE CST. GFS BRINGS PCPN INTO SRN CSTL
WTRS MON AFTN WHILE NAM HOLDS OFF ON IT TIL TUE AM. WI TRACK OF NAM
LO...IT CONFINES PCPN TO IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS. GFS LUKS TO HV SUM
FEEDBACK ISSUES ON TUE AFTN. WL HV SLGT CHC POPS OVR MUCH OF
CWA...BUT WL BRING IT UP TO LIKELY ALNG SRN CSTL SXNS TUE. WL BE A
PROLONGD PD OF PCPN AS LO...REGARDLESS OF WHAT TRACK IT FOLLOWS...WL
BE SLO TO MV UP THE CST. WL KP 6HR QPF AMNTS TO LESS THAN HALF INCH
FOR 6 HRLY PDS...BUT AGAIN WL HV HIER AMNTS ALONG SRN CST SXNS AND
OTRBNKS. MDL FCST SNDGS KPG THE LWR ATMOS ABV FREEZING SO DONT XPCT
ANY WINTERY TYPE PCPN WI THIS SYS. CRRNT FCST HAS PCPN ENDING THU
NGT IN NE AS LO LIFTS OUT. WL HOLD PCPN IN FCST TIL FRI AM.

WND RCHS HI WND WRNG CRIT TUE AFTN. CONSIDERED A WATCH THIS FP...BUT
WL HOLD OFF AS ITS JUST BEYOND WATCH RANGE.

Posted: **Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:51 pm**

Here is the new watches/warnings/advisories:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-211000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.FA.A.0005.061121T1200Z-061123T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...
BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...
MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...
JACKSONVILLE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
319 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BEAUFORT...CARTERET...CRAVEN...
DUPLIN...GREENE...JONES...LENOIR...MAINLAND DARE...MAINLAND
HYDE...MARTIN...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE...OUTER BANKS HYDE...
PAMLICO...PITT...TYRRELL AND WASHINGTON.

* FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 264...IN THIS
REGION 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

I am in the 4-6 inch range...Wind advisory:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

NCZ045-080-093-094-211000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0013.061121T1200Z-061123T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...
NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...
MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL
320 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Yep, thats for me, winds of strong TD strength expected with gusts to 55, the sustained winds will be as strong here as they were for Isabel and Ophelia...
High Wind Warning:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

NCZ046-047-081-095-103-104-211000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.HW.W.0005.061121T1200Z-061123T0600Z/
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...
EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...
NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
320 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

According to this mornings update, Mark is heading to the Otr Banks tomorrow to record wind data and video...There is a Coastal Flood Watch out as well...however the messages are different based on location, so will not post it. I am hoping to possibly get some photos of my area (obviously dont want to be driving, nor can I) I hope everyone in Eastern NC and surrounding regions stay safe!!!

STORM2K

Easern NC Weather - New Watches/Warnings

Easern NC Weather - New Watches/Warnings