STORM2K

Well everyone in the Ohio Valley and Mid Mississippi Valley, listen up! Conditions are coming together quite well for a major severe weather outbreak on Sunday. A very and unusually strong cold front will move through the Mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A large clash between much cooler drier air and much more humid and warm air will occur. Ahead of the front from Iowa into Illinois and Indiana dewpoints will be in the mid to even upper 70's! This will create great fuel for the thunderstorms. CAPE Values will range from 3500-5000. LI'S will range from -10 to -14. Storms will likely initiate from Southern Wisconsin and Iowa as supercells with heavy rain, large hail and some isolated tornadoes. Shear will be sufficient for some tornadoes, possibly an isolated strong one. As a strong jet moves through the area the storms will likely organize into a linear form and move southeast producing widespread wind damage. I am expecting to see some winds with the storms in excess of 80 mph. The derecho will continue moving through Illinois and Indiana and of coarse damaging winds, very heavy rain and some flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be the threats. If everything shapes up as I am expecting, I wouldn't be suprised to see a high risk put in place from Illinois and Iowa into Indiana and Western Ohio. Stay Tuned and I will update later.

Oh man... that isn't good... and us that got slammed last night with heavy rain...we could see flooding... stay tuned!!!!
Jeremy

It seems as though the current data indicates that there will be at least one "Particularly Dangerous Situation" ("PDS") severe weather watch box issued tomorrow, Sunday in Illinois and/or Indiana.

Definitely some PDS watches, I AGREE! I think a high risk isn't out of the question either!

Hi guys..............I just been checking around and all i can say is that this is something we dont need especially over your way Brandon in Indiana :o ....................And i agree that it wont suprise me if IA,IL,IN, And the western parts of OH are in the high risk area for tomorrow(Right now they say moderate risk)..................There certainly is alot comming together for this possible big event...............Which you have covered well Brandon.......................The nice suprise i can say is how well the models have picked this up from almost a week ago..................Either way i will be here most of the reast of today into tonight and all day tomorrow because this is looking serious :o ...................I do look forward to seeing what everyone has to say about this so feel free to comment on it.................I will at some point later today or tonight start a new thread just for this event and whoever likes can add thier own input into it........................Gonna be a long day tomorrow............

I wish Topeka would get hit by one of these systems...

Our first watch of the day is out...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 770

UPDATE: Supercells are developing now over Michigan and should move into northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio. Large hail, some damaging winds, heavy rain and possibly an isolated tornado will be possible. A Weather Watch will most likely be issued. This is just the beginning everyone!

I have been having trouble getting into the SPC site all day. The local NWS office in Pittsburgh is calling for some really nasty weather here on Monday. What is the risk assessment right now for Monday. I have also noticed in the local forecast from TWC, that they have it written up as severe thunderstorm likely Monday. Any help with this would be appreciated.

It looks like there is only a slight risk for Monday... but there is a risk that this will be upgraded later today or with tomorrow's day one outlook...

Jeremy

You are under a slight risk right now!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ALPENA
MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TOLEDO OHIO.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.




DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD
TOWARD NW OH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS FROM NW OH NWD OVER LOWER MI...WHERE A
FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS...AND WHERE STORMS MERGE INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS.
Again... a severe thunderstorm watch until 8pm EDT (7pm EST)... also tornado warnings! Branch and Hillsdale Counties in MI, until 345pm EDT... and just across the wires, one for Calhoun County in MI also until 315pm EDT... ready or not, it is going right now!!!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR


EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.


HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF DULUTH
MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ESCANABA MICHIGAN.


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 771...


DISCUSSION...A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD FROM MANITOBA
TOWARD NE MN. EXPECT STORMS TO FORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG AND
E OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS NW WI...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER
E...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND NE WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

Tornado Warning for Hillsdale County in MI, and Williams County in Ohio, until 445pm EDT! Seek shelter immediately, there have been some warnings with these storms earlier this afternoon! Also, a new Tornado Watch is up for NE, IA and SD until 9pm CDT!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF


WESTERN IOWA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA


EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.


TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA TO
60 MILES WEST OF LAMONI IOWA.


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 771...WW 772...


DISCUSSION...EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND W OF THE MO
RIVER WHERE MLCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEED 5000 J/KG. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF APPARENT ACCAS OVER SE SD WHICH SIGNIFIES AT LEAST
WEAK ASCENT OVER THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS INVOF OF NE NEB/SE SD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE/SSEWD ALONG
THE MO RIVER VALLEY. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
TORNADO THREAT.

Severe thunderstorm warning for Fulton County in NW Ohio until 515PM EDT! These storms are moving Se, so later tonight from Dayton to Columbus(if these get that far which they could), be on your guard!

This is Northern Indiana's NWS radar...

Thanks for the heads up rock and as well i have updated to forecast so if you wanna check it out click the link below my sig and then click storm2k products........................Its gonna be a stormy evening in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Midwest into the central plains.................Be safe everyone................Them storms entering NW Ohio earlier had a couple tornado warnings in southern Michigan...........(Not Confirmed) though............Check back in for more updates..........

This is IND's radar...


Here's ILN's:

And Here's one from Cleveland:

Here's Omaha's radar:

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