STORM2K

The SPC has a 15% risk of tornadoes out for today for AR/MO/TN/KY/IL.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL
FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN IL...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME
SERN OK...AR...SRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN OH...WRN-CENTRAL KY...NWRN
MS...MO BOOT-HEEL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796...797...

VALID 231551Z - 231745Z

CONTINUE WW 797 ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS.
POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN PAST 15 MINUTES IN
BALLARD COUNTY KY.

ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS FARTHER E...ACROSS
PORTIONS KY/TN/MS. WITHIN AN HOUR...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CLEAR
REMAINDER WW 796...WHICH MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT 15Z NEAR LINE FROM 35 SSE
CSV...25 SW BNA...40 NE MKL...10 SW PAH. CONVECTIVE LINE INTERSECTS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR PAH. EXPECT THIS INTERSECTION POINT TO SHIFT
EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KY AND NRN TN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTS/MIXES NWD AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND PROCEEDS EWD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...AS MAY POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH ASSOCIATED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TO AROUND 250 J/KG OVER
SRN AR AND NWRN MS.

TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- OVER NRN KY...SERN INDIANA AND SRN
OH...THROUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS IF TEMPS
RISE INTO UPPER 70S F. HOWEVER THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW TO HEAT
DIABATICALLY AND TO DESTABILIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER...UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER STREAMING OFF CONTINUING CONVECTION FARTHER S AND SW.

..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33929486 34149406 34819325 35349212 36289036 37298874
38098758 38958521 39078420 38568367 37488466 36088603
34958840 33709122 33569339

doesnt look like it will be too bad today...

No tornado outbreak today. The squall line is ruining instability, as was expected.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AL...MIDDLE-ERN TN...EXTREME NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 231653Z - 231800Z

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS IS FCST ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. WW IS ANTICIPATED BOTH FOR THIS
REGIME...AND FOR ADVANCEMENT OF PRE-EXISTING MCS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
KY AND MID TN.

SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SWLY S OF BOUNDARY...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
GIVEN LATEST REGIONAL ISALLOBARIC TRENDS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
THEREFORE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER WARM SECTOR...
ALTHOUGH WITH ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR TO LENGTHEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES BEFORE ACTIVITY REACHES BOUNDARY.
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF BOUNDARY
AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER MID/ERN TN...GIVEN RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS
AND RELATIVELY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA SUGGEST LOBE OF 250-400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH WILL
CONTINUE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF
BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAT...WITH EXTENSIVE FIELD OF SW-NE
ORIENTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS ALREADY EVIDENT TO ITS S. CB
ARE INITIATING OFF THOSE ROLLS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKENING CINH
AND MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36078718 36668584 36728486 36638434 36218401 35398411
33468685 33718810 35458732

New watch - Middle TN/Central KY

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE INTO PART OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 797...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG TWO
DIFFERENT REGIMES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE
TN. ONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS NOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KY...WHILE ANOTHER EVOLVES AS MORE DISCRETE
STORMS DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO MIDDLE
TN. AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND
WILL DESTABILIZE N-NE OF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CLEARING
SKIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...EVANS


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE INTO PART OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 797...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG TWO
DIFFERENT REGIMES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE
TN. ONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS NOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KY...WHILE ANOTHER EVOLVES AS MORE DISCRETE
STORMS DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN KY INTO MIDDLE
TN. AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND
WILL DESTABILIZE N-NE OF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CLEARING
SKIES. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...EVANS


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 231709
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

TORNADO WATCH 798 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC025-043-061-123-240100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0798.060923T1715Z-060924T0100Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON
PERRY


KYC001-003-005-009-021-027-029-031-045-053-057-061-067-073-079-
085-087-091-093-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-155-163-167-169-171-
179-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-239-240100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0798.060923T1715Z-060924T0100Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE
BULLITT BUTLER CASEY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HART HENRY
JEFFERSON JESSAMINE LARUE
LINCOLN LOGAN MARION
MEADE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE NELSON OHIO
OLDHAM RUSSELL SCOTT
SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER
TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON
WOODFORD


TNC003-007-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-061-065-083-087-
111-115-121-125-133-137-141-143-147-149-153-159-161-165-169-175-
177-185-187-189-240100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0798.060923T1715Z-060924T0100Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD BLEDSOE CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DEKALB
DICKSON FENTRESS GRUNDY
HAMILTON HOUSTON JACKSON
MACON MARION MEIGS
MONTGOMERY OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM RHEA ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SEQUATCHIE SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MRX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 798 TORNADO IN KY TN 231715Z - 240100Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NW SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/ - 60SW CSV/CROSSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /30NW LOU - 40NW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

LAT...LON 38438466 35338450 35338716 38438744

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 798 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

The warning for Hopkins County, KY had expired but was just reissued:

WFUS53 KPAH 231731
TORPAH
KYC107-231800-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0128.060923T1731Z-060923T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEAST HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

* AT 1226 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WHITE PLAINS...OR
ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE....MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR NORTONVILLE.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE INDOORS...AND TAKE SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF CAUGHT IN THE OPEN...SEEK
SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT.

LAT...LON 3728 8749 3713 8744 3718 8732 3729 8739

$$

There were reports of roofs off houses in the area. Sounds like a high F1-F2 if it was a tornado (it may have easily been straight-line winds)

Gosh, at least 3 tornado reports today from warnings, but no actual reports on the SPC.

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 235 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF
ROBERTS. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM ..AND THIS TORNADO WAS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH..

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURKHARDT...

i was definately not expecting this, most likely a cold air funnel but still:

======================================================================
WFUS53 KMPX 232004
TORMPX
MNC163-WIC109-232030-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0025.060923T2003Z-060923T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 259 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A ROTATING WALL
CLOUD NEAR HUDSON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIVER FALLS.
RADAR SHOWED THE SEVERE STORM ..AND THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUDSON...
INTERSTATE 94 NEAR LAKELAND...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4503 9275 4500 9288 4493 9283 4497 9270

$$

LS

That "cold air funnel" or whatever it was produced the first (and so far only) tornado LSR of the day. Granted, this wasn't a great day for tornadoes anyway, but with the umber of warnings that were issued, you would certainly expect more.

i really wasnt suprised, the storms that were tor warned that i saw really didnt look impressive AT ALL...