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				9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak
				Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:25 pm
				by wxmann_91
				Powerful Pacific Jet (150 kt progged by 12Z GFS!) continues to keep this progressive pattern going.
Timing is still uncertain, but many models prog several mobile shortwaves to swing around a general longwave trough out west (SW FLOW). First one is weak and does not have much moisture to work with, but it should bring up moisture for the second, and much more potent, system, which is progged to arrive in the Midwest on Friday.
Dewpoints are in the 70's and the shear is going to be incredible. I see one limiting factor however - CLOUDCOVER. High RH's in the upper atmosphere, high PW's, and strong forcing are going to produce an incredible amount of cloudcover in the morning. This limits destabilization.
Large low-amplitude trough is going to ensure sufficient directional shear. With less cloudcover, this is clearly a synoptically evident day with the potential of a huge tornado outbreak from LA to IN.
ECMWF and GFS agree on a less potent shortwaves to follow for next week with active progressive pattern continuing.
Am eagerly awaiting on 0Z GFS... see if it trends back west or it continues with this potentially very volatile situation.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:38 pm
				by NEWeatherguy
				This evening's HWO from Omaha NWS said we could have some large hail and damaging winds Wednesday night into Thursday.  Getting a little active toward the end of summer here.
I think this is the same system you are talking about for Friday.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:28 pm
				by WaitingForSiren
				Now is probably the time to change the name of this thread, or delete it...lol. Looks like saturday is the day to watch now..but even that looks iffy.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:24 pm
				by wxmann_91
				WaitingForSiren wrote:Now is probably the time to change the name of this thread, or delete it...lol. Looks like saturday is the day to watch now..but even that looks iffy.
LOL. I probably jinxed it... sigh. Leason learned: don't start a thread saying "major tornado outbreak possible" 4-5 days out.
 
			
					
				
				Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:29 pm
				by CrazyC83
				I doubt there will be anything major at this point.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:52 pm
				by wxmann_91
				The main models have not changed much although they have trended back toward a phase and thus a more potent event.
But the NAM - it has been consistent with the possibility of a major outbreak on Friday-Saturday. Don't know how much it can be trusted since it's one, very sucky model, but its consistence since 0Z yesterday intrigues me.
FWIW:

 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:22 pm
				by WaitingForSiren
				While I dont expect a tornado outbreak at any time today through saturday..a significant episode appears likely at least saturday. I think SPC is too agressive on the tornado threat today...nocturnal tornadoes are hard to get and...the destabilization zone with all that rain looks very narrow. Id say more like a 5% area...and in central KS ahead of the low.
friday is a little more potent but still not major IMO. low will close off in iowa with another emerging out of Colorado. Looks like there will be significant rain and cloud cover over the warm sector friday morning... and Im not sure if the low level moisture will be good enough. Id say Arkansas is the best bet for severe friday.
saturday the low emerging on Friday should really move northeastward and deepen a bit. I expect a low near 1000 mb in IL by saturday afternoon. Positive tilt of trough nature with a sagging front makes me believe the tornado threat wont be too high, but more of a line segment affair. Will opt to go with a broad 5% tornado threat on saturday, with a localization to 10...perhaps 15% on the day 1. If the cyclone is more intense than i am thinking, or an area of significant low level moisture/destabilization cooincide and develop together, a narrow moderate risk might become necessary. Will monitor this event..especially saturday.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:29 pm
				by CrazyC83
				The SPC has upgraded it to Moderate Risk for tomorrow! For a VERY large area!!! Also very close to a DAY 3 MDT!
I think we have a BIG outbreak brewing...making last weekend look like scattered showers...
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:33 pm
				by CrazyC83
				SPC AC 211748
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI/NWRN
   INDIANA/IL/MO/NRN AR/NERN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE NWD...WHILE SECOND
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AROUND LARGER MID-LEVEL VORTEX. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL  SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
   DUE TO SMALLER-SCALE COMPLEXITY WITHIN THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH. 
   HOWEVER...GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF AN
   EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   SPREADING NWD BENEATH A VERY STRONG/FAVORABLY-VEERING WIND FIELD
   WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO NERN TX...
   CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MO/IL/IA AND VICINITY...IN CONJUCTION WITH
   STRONG/SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND BROAD/ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM
   ADVECTION.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY
   SUB-SEVERE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS AR ON LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
   MOISTURE.
   
   THOUGH THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION INJECTS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
   INTO THE DAY 2 FORECAST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOST OF THE
   CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT N AND E WITH TIME...WHILE VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTS NWD ACROSS AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. 
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.  THOUGH A STRONG MID-LEVEL FEATURE DOES
   NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT THIS REGION...SMALLER/MORE SUBTLE
   FEATURES WILL MOVE NEWD IN SWLY FLOW AROUND SERN FRINGES OF
   LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
    ALONG PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING
   ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK INTO WRN MO AND NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH THE LACK OF A PRONOUNCED SMALL-SCALE UPPER FEATURE...IT APPEARS
   ATTM THAT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN POCKETS OF
   GREATER INSTABILITY.  WITH VERY STRONG/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT ABOVE VERY STRONG SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...DEGREE OF SHEAR
   WILL ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE STRONG ROTATION.  ALONG WITH
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCLS
   COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES. 
   THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING
   EARLIER CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO AND INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.
   
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WITH
   STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND EWD INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION.  THOUGH THIS WILL LIKEWISE ALLOW
   CONVECTION -- AND SOME SEVERE THREAT -- TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD...MAIN
   THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM IL SSWWD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
   COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:38 pm
				by CrazyC83
				Oh yeah - we may get a jump-start. Latest SPC advisory has a 10-hatched tornado area in SE Oklahoma/NE Texas.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:56 pm
				by CrazyC83
				Yes indeed...we start early...
SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
          CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
   KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
   THIS TIME.  STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS.  VERY
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
   WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW.  EXPECT
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
   EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
   
   
   ...MCCARTHY
 
   SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
          CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA
   KANSAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS AT
   THIS TIME.  STRONG DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM RSL - END - SPS.  VERY
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
   WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NEAR ICT TO 2000 J/KG NEAR DFW.  EXPECT
   SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
   EXISTS GIVEN STRONG HODOGRAPH SIGNATURES ACROSS AREA.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
   
   
   ...MCCARTHY
 
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   WOUS64 KWNS 211932
   WOU2
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   TORNADO WATCH 782 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   KSC001-011-015-017-019-021-035-037-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-
   105-113-115-125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-220300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
   
   KS 
   .    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ALLEN                BOURBON             BUTLER              
   CHASE                CHAUTAUQUA          CHEROKEE            
   COWLEY               CRAWFORD            ELK                 
   ELLSWORTH            GREENWOOD           HARPER              
   HARVEY               KINGMAN             LABETTE             
   LINCOLN              MARION              MCPHERSON           
   MONTGOMERY           NEOSHO              RENO                
   RICE                 RUSSELL             SALINE              
   SEDGWICK             SUMNER              WILSON              
   WOODSON              
   
   
   OKC001-017-021-027-035-037-041-047-051-053-061-063-071-073-081-
   083-087-091-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-
   133-135-143-145-147-220300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0782.060921T1935Z-060922T0300Z/
   
   OK 
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ADAIR                CANADIAN            CHEROKEE            
   CLEVELAND            CRAIG               CREEK               
   DELAWARE             GARFIELD            GRADY               
   GRANT                HASKELL             HUGHES              
   KAY                  KINGFISHER          LINCOLN             
   LOGAN                MAYES               MCCLAIN             
   MCINTOSH             MUSKOGEE            NOBLE               
   NOWATA               OKFUSKEE            OKLAHOMA            
   OKMULGEE             OSAGE               OTTAWA              
   PAWNEE               PAYNE               POTTAWATOMIE        
   ROGERS               SEMINOLE            SEQUOYAH            
   TULSA                WAGONER             WASHINGTON          
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...OUN...SGF...
   
   
   
 
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
   SAW2 
   WW 782 TORNADO KS OK 211935Z - 220300Z
   AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   65NE ICT/WICHITA KS/ - 20W MLC/MCALESTER OK/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /58NE ICT - 17W MLC/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
   
   LAT...LON 38299491 34869455 34869772 38299823
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU2.
   
Watch 782 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:59 pm
				by CrazyC83
				And another one...
   SEL3
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 783
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   255 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
          SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
          NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 255 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 782...
   
   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/AHEAD OF
   SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX.  SFC
   DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER REGION AND SFC
   PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO N
   CENTRAL TX.  SPECIAL 19Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWS RUC MODEL IS PRETTY
   CLOSE IN ESTIMATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG E OF
   THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY ALSO OF
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OUT AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS AFTN AND
   EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:01 pm
				by CrazyC83
				1851  2 SW RUSSELL  RUSSELL  KS 3887 9888 (ICT) 
1900  RUSSELL  RUSSELL  KS 3889 9885 MINOR TORNADO DAMAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF RUSSELL KANSAS. (ICT) 
2 tornado reports. Already.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:19 pm
				by CrazyC83
				DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX/SWRN
   AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF KS AND
   OK AND NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...ERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS...AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER WRN KS ATTM. 
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN KS INVOF THE
   UPPER LOW...ALSO CENTERED OVER WRN KS. MEANWHILE WEAKLY-CAPPED
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN NARROW WARM SECTOR
   AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO THE
   TX BIG BEND REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S
   CENTRAL KS SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO E TX.
   
   AS DRYLINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM FRONT SHIFTS
   EWD/NEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...STORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER -- PRIMARILY
   FROM NERN TX NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS.  
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/CELLULAR.  GIVEN STRONG SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW WHICH INCREASES/VEERS RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 50 TO 70
   KT AT 3 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/PROFILERS...DEVELOPING STORMS
   SHOULD VERY RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION.  WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS
   FAR N AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N CENTRAL TX/S CENTRAL OK...LOW
   LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO THREAT...SPREADING EWD ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK THIS
   EVENING.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE NWD
   INTO ERN KS...FAVORABLE SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
    WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE WRN HALF OF AR AND SWRN
   MO...WITH HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDING EWD
   TOWARD THE MS RIVER.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/21/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2018Z (4:18PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
MDT based on 15-hatched tornado risk.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:59 pm
				by CrazyC83
				Now up to 5 tornadoes reported.
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:27 pm
				by Bunkertor
				Wow, this really appeared unexpected, isn´t it ?
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:31 pm
				by CrazyC83
				Bunkertor wrote:Wow, this really appeared unexpected, isn´t it ?
Well, there were vague signs of it, but to explode this fast was unexpected.
Now 7 tornadoes today.
 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:37 pm
				by Bunkertor
				Not again butler county...
any live streamTV available?
			 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:57 pm
				by CrazyC83
				Bunkertor wrote:Not again butler county...
any live streamTV available?
I don't think so.
 
			
					
				
				Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 5:00 pm
				by Bunkertor
				CrazyC83 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:Not again butler county...
any live streamTV available?
I don't think so.
 
Indeed - nothing. i just tried