STORM2K

I know it's not set in stone yet but...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE W COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WEAKER IMPULSES TO EJECT NEWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. ONE SUCH
FEATURE OVER NM IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT
FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEAMPLIFICATION
OF SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SWD AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA
SWWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE ENEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -4C TO -6C AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN EXPANSIVE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF EWD
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN THAT
REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WSWLY
WIND PROFILES...WITH 50 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KM ACCOMPANYING EWD
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL EXIST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FAST MOVING CLUSTERS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. FARTHER SW ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO KS...WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER...BUT A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.


...NERN STATES...

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W-E ACROSS ME AND MAY LIFT
SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE NERN STATES IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORTED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPSTREAM ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SERN CANADA
AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD
THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY. THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER MODERATE DEEP LAYER 40 KT WNWLY FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS EVOLVING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

It could also extend into New York and Pennsylvania and even over to Illinois and Wisconsin.

Thursday could be a day to watch in the Ohio Valley as well.

Tornado warnings everywhere. This is the system.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SPENCER IOWA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANKATO MINNESOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 666...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG SURFACE FRONT IN SW MN MAY
POSE A TORNADO THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 02-0230Z...BEFORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS MERGE WITH THESE STORMS FROM THE SW. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

2 tornado reports so far, maybe one more to come in tonight? no more tornado warnings right now, probably no more for the rest of the night, wind is the main threat now.

Looking forward to it! I'm right on the michigan and indiana border

Makes the day fly at the office when you're monitoring the weather all day.

I have a feeling that Ontario is just going to get smacked yet again just like that other system that killed people not too long ago. It's going to be a long day tomorrow....and I have to track Chris at the same time .

2006 is definately not the year to be optimistic, not saying that an outbreak wont happen, i have no right to say, i haven't looked at models, and also not to say that tomorrow will be the same as this, but many times this year a strong cap has busted MANY moderate risk days for the midwest this year, but we will have to see. i also just want to add one more thing, the day after March 12 of this year, the same system that brought 140 tornadoes to the central plains didn't bring much at all on March 13, which everyone overhyped. i dont have much jurisdiction to say what might happen tomorrow, hell, i'm just beginning at forecasting severe weather and i haven't checked models to see what they are pointing to, but i'm just saying from what i've seen so far this year, i wouldn't be suprised to see the cap win out yet again.

dean wrote:2006 is definately not the year to be optimistic, not saying that an outbreak wont happen, i have no right to say, i haven't looked at models, and also not to say that tomorrow will be the same as this, but many times this year a strong cap has busted MANY moderate risk days for the midwest this year, but we will have to see. i also just want to add one more thing, the day after March 12 of this year, the same system that brought 140 tornadoes to the central plains didn't bring much at all on March 13, which everyone overhyped. i dont have much jurisdiction to say what might happen tomorrow, hell, i'm just beginning at forecasting severe weather and i haven't checked models to see what they are pointing to, but i'm just saying from what i've seen so far this year, i wouldn't be suprised to see the cap win out yet again.

Actually, it might just be the exact opposite. The heights are lowering, not rising like it was the previous cap busts. 40 kt LLJ should be firmly implanted throughout the warm sector. Overall, I think that convection's going to remain all day and completely ruin the warm sector. If anything cellular develops, it will likely be elevated.

as of right now, the SPC thinks this will likely be mostly a wind event, like many days have been lately.

This morning, Southern Ontario got hit with a line of powerful thunderstorms:

I woke up almost 4 hours after I went to bed and I wasn't thinking right (early morning) and the time was about 6:45 am EST. I went to my windows and this amazing line of clouds looked mean and nasty with these white streaks at the front of the thunderstorm clouds. It sort of looked like the front of a super cell but this wasn't a super cell of course. I could hear this deep, long thunder coming every 4 seconds. I watched the clouds and they came up fast, so I checked the radar and there was a smallish line of thunderstorms heading right my way. I then went outside and the clouds were bubbling like with lightning and it was quite a sight. I got inside quickly and then heavy rain started with lots of sky-lighting and medium winds (not too strong). The rain lasted 20 minutes and the deep cracking thunder continued for another 15 minutes.

I think Ontario is going to get another round later today or tonight. I would rate the thunderstorm I just had at the 2nd worst this year, behind that other one that occurred 2 weeks ago.

We had a severe thunderstorm warning at 7am this morning. I slept through it, and I think the storm was more in northern Perth into northern Wellington county. Not Waterloo county.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:09 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
CITY OF TORONTO
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY
LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
GANANOQUE - MALLORYTOWN
WESTPORT - CHARLESTON LAKE
PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
HALIBURTON.

THE HOT..HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
SPARK INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
MULTIPLE NORTH TO SOUTH LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TODAY. THE LINES ARE MOVING EASTWARD AT 80 TO 100 KM/H AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR MAXIMUM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VERY HOT.. HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/CHADWICK/SEIFERT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MANISTEE MICHIGAN TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
OSCODA MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...40-50 KT OF WLY FLOW COUPLED WITH POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIR SUPPORTS INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS AREA. CURRENTLY FAST MOVING LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS FAR NRN LWR MI WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING AFTERNOON IN WATCH AREA. STORMS WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOW WITH ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.

IM UNDER A TORNADO WARNING!!!

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SEVERE THUBDERSTORM JUST NORTH
OF LISTOWEL...NEAR MOLESWORTH..HAAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

Your under a tornado warning alright conestogo_flood. Watch out, a powerful cell heading your way!

I might have seen a funnel cloud, I called into the Weather Network EWT line to report it. It was located probably between St. Jacobs and Conestogo.

Updated warning:

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:34 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO.

TORNADO WARNING ENDED FOR:
LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NOW NEAR ELMIRA AT 2.30 PM HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. CANWARN TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT
A WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM. SOME TREE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED
EARLIER NEAR PALMERSTON WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF LISTOWEL.

conestogo_flood wrote:I might have seen a funnel cloud, I called into the Weather Network EWT line to report it. It was located probably between St. Jacobs and Conestogo.

Lucky! Man, it's always someone else who sees the funnels. What's going on right now? (If it's safe to post anymore that is)

A TORNADO MAY BE OVER THE CITY OF GUELPH! POPULATION 125,000!

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:56 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= BURLINGTON - OAKVILLE
=NEW= HALTON HILLS - MILTON
=NEW= GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR:
GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOW
NEAR ELMIRA AT 3.00 PM HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OAKVILLE AT
3.30 PM.

CANWARN TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT A WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.
A FUNEL CLOUD APPRAOCHED THE GROUND OVER THE CITY OF GUELPH. NO
DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED. SEVERAL OTHER FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED.

TORNADO WARNING
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:28 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 2 AUGUST 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING FOR:
BURLINGTON - OAKVILLE
HALTON HILLS - MILTON.

TORNADO WARNING ENDED FOR:
KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO
GUELPH - ERIN - SOUTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
CANWARN TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT A TORNADO AT 3.20 PM 3
KILOMETRES SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHWAY 6 AND 401 INTERSECTION.
A CURTAIN OF RAIN WRAPS AROUND THIS TORNADO MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
SEE.

Just what I thought, a very powerful line of storms is forming or has formed in the Great Lakes and is heading our way right now. Local 4 news (WDIV from Detroit) weather radars and Titan4D shows that these are very deep thunderstorms with intense lightning. The live lightning tracker he used showed rapid lighting strikes in the storms. Wow, Southern Ontario really is going to be punched tonight if the line says alive. I'm getting ready for this one just in case.

The weather network guy currently on says it's a bow echo.