Fat Ladys on the stage

[azsnowman]

Well folks, the fat lady is on stage and ready to sing.......I *stand* by this statement 110% for those of you who *think* I'm a nay sayer, the Nonsoons (monsoons) for all intents and purposes in the White Mountains, is a NO SHOW Statisticly, if the monsoons haven't cranked up by 12 July, they DO NOT show up, I know......there are those of you out there who refuse to believe this, so be it, this is your opinion. Like I posted before, I don't claim to nor will I ever, know everything about the weather BUT.......I've studied nature enough, kept enough records over the years to KNOW what I'm talking about! The fat lady takes the stage in 7 hrs. 14 minutes.

Dennis

[Stormsfury]

I don't know that region of the country as well as you do but right now I'm actually hoping that the moisture remains from Claudette are able to be that *spark* that helps induce the monsoon in the SW.

SF

[azsnowman]

Let's hope so.....God, this is heart wrenching to see 200-300 year old Ponderosa Pines dying a slow death from this drought, last year was bad, this is worse. Yes....we had a pretty decent snow pack this past winter BUT......our winds this spring sucked every bit of moisture that fell right out of the ground at break neck speeds. May God have Mercy on us up here........this ain't good, ain't good at all!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

what we are talking about here, here's the definition of a monsoon as posted on my homepage which was taken from "The North American Monsoon" by David K. Adams and Andrew C. Comrie of the University of Arizona and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 1997. Their definition is based upon that used by many researchers.

MONSOON: A seasonal reversal of pressure and wind patterns, energy and mass transfers and characteristic regimes of rainfall and temperature.

A monsoon may be wet or dry or hot or cold and although thunderstorms may occur with a monsoon, they are not monsoons themselves but are correctly identified as monsoon thunderstorms

For the record, the monsoon has never failed to appear at Tucson during their period of record although it has been pathetically weak at times however the definition makes no mention of effectiveness of the monsoon and as it is, Monsoons the world over are notoriously fickle as to when they start and how effective they are. The latest starting monsoon here at the house was on July 17th in 1995 and yet the monsoon wound up ending late and was quite an effective and severe one.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Point well taken, Thanks Steve!

Dennis

[Arizwx]

Well folks, the fat lady is on stage and ready to sing.......I *stand* by this statement 110% for those of you who *think* I'm a nay sayer, the Nonsoons (monsoons) for all intents and purposes in the White Mountains, is a NO SHOW Statisticly, if the monsoons haven't cranked up by 12 July, they DO NOT show up, I know......there are those of you out there who refuse to believe this, so be it, this is your opinion. Like I posted before, I don't claim to nor will I ever, know everything about the weather BUT.......I've studied nature enough, kept enough records over the years to KNOW what I'm talking about! The fat lady takes the stage in 7 hrs. 14 minutes.

Dennis

I'm not dissing you at all Bro!I respect the hell outta folks that take time,effort and just plain passion to the environment to keep astute Climos..diaries..etc.Nor am I dissing any lack of a Met deg!HELL..I don't have one either..and like YOU..I'm self taught 30+yrs..take copius notes,listen to old Crumedgeons like Kahuna and understand the idosyncratic nature if Regional Micro/Macro Climotology.
If ya say she sings..she sings...I love Opera!How about Freedie Mercury Sings Queen's 'Bohemian Rhapsody'!!!!!!!!(sp)LOL!Let her RIP!Maybe that can shake loose those SEV Gila County RimmerStorms up to the Snowman's Place!
"Any Way The Wind Blows"~Queen~

[azsnowman]

Well........5 hours and 4 minutes till *Bertha* makes her Encore Apperance, here's mo' proof!

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

What can I say but *HEAVY SIGH*

Dennis

[M2]

Hay Dennis, there is a solid wall between us and you guys, from the lakes
all the way down to Tucson. We'll probably only get sand & wind, but our
dewpoints are already down to 50 and if we can't maintain the 55 or higher,
the count will have to start again. What's your dewpoint up there now?

[Aslkahuna]

so his critical dewpoint value would be lower than 55F somewhere between 45-50F or so. The monsoon boundary values at 850mb (roughly 5000' range from 8-12C (46-54F) and I split the difference to arrive at my critical DP value for Sierra Vista. However, a study we did at Dugway UT which is close to elevation to Sierra Vista's (in a true desert though) showed that significant thunderstorms would occur once the dewpoint hit 45F (7.4C). It could be very likely that he could get a dry monsoon which would not be good-the big problem is that although we have seen a windshift, the trajectory is not classical monsoonal and this does make a difference with the sensible weather and where and how it occurs. My outlook that I issued is primarily for my area and I did call for a late starting and drier than average monsoon but how this translates to the White Mountains is not clear. But for the state as a whole, as early as last Fall I was saying that things did not look promising for the this year's monsoon so I have been pessimistic all along.

Steve

[Colin]

I'm sorry Dennis...I'm still hoping that the monsoon will crank up. You never know...Mother Nature does have her surprises. Never give up!

[M2]

that his dewpoint requirement for onset will be somewhat different up in
the White Mountains, but we all know it's going to start late and be drier than
recent rainy years. I was just asking Dennis what his current dewpoints are
at this hour - - He'll get some rain; we just don't know exactly when.

[azsnowman]

I am a cronic pessimist and it seems to be justified this summer, the total lack of build ups here at the house and HUGE build ups to my N, S, W, E has really gotten to me, I know there is nuthin' I can do about it but yet.........

The dewpoints the past 3 days have been hoovering around the lower 30's to upper 40's, RH in the mornings hangs around 50-60% but as soon as the sun cooks the moisture out, it drops back down to the lower teens.

This is a replay of 1999......total rainfall at the house for the season, a WHOPPING 1.54", hell, I'd even settle for .01" right now!

Dennis

[M2]

Dennis, 1.54" for the summer rainy season stinks. We better do more
raindances and incense burning this time to up those numbers...here too.
I know about seeing storms off in the distance...but none in our area.

[Aslkahuna]

and rub some salt in the wounds Tucson's AFD is a little late getting out tonight which is understandable since they have to figure out why a. they got two h****raiser days in a row and b. how come a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) formed right over their heads. The Dynamics came from somewhere but all I can see is a dry intrusion setting up one hefty moisture gradient in eastern Cochise County and possibly some turning in the winds. As these big hot Highs aloft stay around, moisture starts to rotate around them as do weak impulses these, along with the lower level monsoonal moisture is what leads to Rim Storms. But these weren't Rimmers in the classical sense since they formed more in the Pinalenos and Chiricahuas than the Rim and headed west out of Mescal Pass instead of Redington Pass but those who got the 40-50+ gusts tonight along with blowing dust and heavy rain, it's a moot point. We caught a feeder storm into the complex and had a great lightning display along with 43 mph gusts but not so much rain as the core just missed us. Got some good lightning footage for my annual highlights tape though. The intense heating due to the high aloft along with local topography here which results in a switchover to a convergence zone along the long axis (N-S)of the Valley along with an intersection point with another zone W-E along the Babacomari River. Those who remember my long article series about the monsoon on my homepage last year know what evening storms moving in from the East can mean for Sierra Vista.
At any rate it was an interesting evening even if the dog had to cancel my walk.

Steve

[Arizwx]

We got the livin' crap beat out of us.We had not one..not two..not three..but FOUR consecutive storms...each blasting hell.I saw it all...LTG..
Major winds...over 55KT+..Dust Storm vis lowered below 1/2mile..then more LTG..more severe..then the hail...35in diameter..then more 55kt winds..an outflow on a Mammtus Set that was a reminder she was not done!Power poles down on I-10 .More winds..45-60+ on a rotater that merged from 3 cells just off Tangerine and I-10..then the cool outflow after 3 hrs of ridiculous mayhem.Now the temps are rising again ..wayyyyyyyyyyy up from 88F to 94F!Uh Oh....she may not be done yet! :o

[azsnowman]

Thanks a LOT guys Geeesh You sure know how to hurt a guy don't ya??? This too, like a bad case of gas, shall pass

I know......I was watching the 2200 hr news, saw the lightning displays all around the southern part of the state, that's O'TAY......we don't need the lightning, it's drier than a popcorn toot up here, one spark, one lightning stroke and we're toast, literally

Starting the countdown to the first snowfall now, as always, I start my predictions on the first snowfall around 1 August, if you will remember back to last fall, I started the contest at TWC on 2 August, I was accused of *riggin* it........at stake were 3 TWC calenders, yours truly was the 1st winner Stay tuned for the upcoming "Place your Bets" contest storm2K style!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

*sigh*

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS REMAINED CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. SAME PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. REALLY DON'T EXPECT ANY
CHANGES IN THE GENERAL COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.

Dennis

[azskyman]

Can only watch and wait here..although some CG lightning was close enough to hear thunder on two occasions. Must be having a time getting a handle on moisture levels as DP is 56 in the hood this morning in spite of a forecast for less humid conditions. That is about the same as yesterday at this time, but temp is at 85 at daybreak...a little warmer.

Saw your storm on the scope Steve, didn't miss you by much. Intensities held right up to sunset.

[azsnowman]

See what I mean, hell.....the storms are blowing up below me and heading south.........

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kfsx.shtml

Dennis

[M2]

There is an area of drier air in Southern New Mexico which has apparently
intruded into Southern Arizona as seen in this newest water vapor satpix:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/SW/WV4SW.GIF

If it becomes more pronounced we could get a 'dryline-type' setup for later
in the day and *Tucson* will be the big winner again in the storm department.
Let's give them the early storms Dennis - they need it to finally
put a stake in the Aspen Fire & declare it 'Finito'. I don't see any big smoke
today on the UofA webcam although there may still be hotspots:
http://www.cs.arizona.edu/camera/

Interesting webcam shot at this hour shows a few cumulous forming above the
Catalinas, but look BEHIND...there already is a bank of clouds forming
to the North of Catalinas probably around Winkleman/Kearney/
Globe...which will travel south and again hit the Old Pueblo. That's ok -
we'll get ours this upcoming week. Models have the High moving and
sticking over by the Four Corners and allowing the more moist New
Mexican/Old Mexico flow to spread in - for you & us. Finally. Don't think
I'll be too far off from the July 15th official start date that I picked a couple
weeks ago. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the High will move as
expected.....and we may still get storms & rain today anyway...the radar
has changed while I write this.

Also - - - - we have that Old Mexico presento inside the pinata called 'Claudette'
remnants of which may still be advected up into the flow once she comes
inland and moves up into Arizona OLE!