Az Grill is Open:Huevos Rancheros Prognostico del Monsoon

[Arizwx]

Okay AZ D-Back fans...It's time to go for the Fences.
I've been watching the Big Picture...as per ususal.This is,BTW..My Humble yet pointed Opinion.
I have 2 sfc and 2 Upper plots that look dam interesting for my 12-14JUL
427/Big Block Start up of the Vaunted Stingray de Tormenta.Okay..so it's a 48hr window.I'll hit her at the 13th then..fair enough.
Not sure if the Big 4bbl Holley Carb needed a rebuild,but my guess is a change over to Multi Point Crossfire Injection will turn our big beast over.
Problem is..too little fuel..no air mix.Let's compress to 13:1 ratio out the 4:11 Posi rear end..and lay serious rubber gear by gear.
Metaphors aside..I speak of a nice influx of much needed 'wet fuel' and Spark to light the Monsoon.
Mazatalan<MX,a place I owned property and sailed extensively has a nice
set up for a GOC Surge to Yuma.That air is Juicy as a ripe Mango.Now..the Mx Monsoon,lee of the prevailing Troppy Easterlies seems to have refired over the Mid Sierra Madre Montanas via the GOMEX.BANG!Hence the 'Rancheros',nice salsa!Hermosillo,SON,MX is seeing the effect now per Ch4 IR WV.
Moreover..my winds in NW TUS have increased substantially over the past few hrs to 18mph G25 from the West,with a sfc of 106F.Not Bad!This is a realization of the Peak heat thermal ridge and the flow off the SoCali desert..with a Temp of only 68F at San Diego with an onshore breeze to 8Mph..we are seeing the migration and flattening of the 600dm Superdome.IOW..it's migrating out of SoCali.hehehe.Refried Beans..Frijoles!(Remember,Spanish Adjectives are backward to the noun)
Now for the Huevos de Tejas Sur(Eggs of So Tx).Forget Claudette for a moment.Look at the Big Bend of the Rio Bravo fellow 'Zonis!There sits the
little troppy disturbance nobody is paying attention to...she is a 'Linebacker' to Blitz the Line before Claudette..and she is ...the Kicker.
AZ wins by a Field Goal!
Ok..I love to play with words...but you that know me get the jist.
More fun...the PW shows a 1.63 in SE ZoniLand by early Sat.Hmm.
Nice for mixing.That's a nice surprise..not counting on it...stil nice tho.Even 1.25 would do it for the pre 'Soon Blender..
This is the mix out we need folks...and it's coming hard.Don't discount as mentioned a secondary ELY(Eaaterly Wave..I know Kahuna dislikes the term ..sorry Esteban!)from La Senorita Ciclone Tropicales Atlantico: 'Claudia'(Claudette).
She could..COULD on her track come ashore as a strong Cat1 near Matamoros,MX..and traverse the Rio Bravo Valley...ridin' High and Tight to the Old Pueblo!(TUS)...which means..she can fire off an outflow regime.
Severe Wx..Big time..by 13Th JULY.J/Kg 3500 should support a major Shear Axis just to off the Mountains of Cochise Co and ride in to TUS as they slide off.Get your Storm Chasin' Spurs on Kahuna..looks mighty interesting..Its' Blazing Saddles Time!This is well ahead of the remnants of Claudette..this could be paydirt.
Feast or Famine...this is the Old West.I'll take it,everytime.

NW TUS
107F/wind wnw 17 G 26/rh 9%/Clr

[Stephanie]

If senorita Claudette does pay Mexico/Texas a visit I hope that her precipitation does head west!

[azsnowman]

God I hope so.........I am SOooooooooo sick and tired of this damn HEAT!!! I know, I know........I SWORE up and down last spring that I WOULD NOT complain about the heat but DANG IT........Nuff is Nuff!!!! I've been pushing 100° ALL DAY!!!! TURN OFF THE DAMN HEATER and BRING ON THE RAIN!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Ariz is going for the 13th, M2 the 15th, my high probability onset period starts on the 16th, my son, TUS NWS and PHX NWS are all going for the 18th so the bottom line is that we are pretty much in agreement that the 'soon could start next week. I did notice that for the first time this Summer we can just barely see the tops of the CB over the Sierra Madre. So now we watch and wait. Basically though, I do not see the mature deep monsoon pattern to set up until next month but rather a spastic pattern through the rest of the month. In actuality, I have been expecting that once we start to see boomers here that we could have some violent ones (in fact, I have also said that in both my outlooks). My analogs of 1987 and 1995 still look good overall. Incidentally, the record latest start for the monsoon in Tucson is July 17th.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

Looks like we will be pushing that for sure this year. :o Hope it is a very good one. That way you can make up for what you have missed out on earlier.

[Arizwx]

Roger that..look at the inflow of the ELY Wave from the Gomex+ 'Claudette' and the increased Rh values from MAZ...plus the migration of the Thermal Ridge and Stacked Hi...just my opinion

[Colin]

I'm really hoping that Claudette brings some rain to the parched Mexico/Arizona areas! :o :o :o

[azskyman]

I like the odds you're playing for next week, but until I see some building CB each day to the south and east of us, I figure we have a ways to go.

Become somewhat fascinated with the monsoon storms each year that seem to be more prevalent some 40 miles east and 40 miles west of Phoenix. Along the Superstitions to Globe...and then in the Wickenburg area.

I might be able to explain the Superstition boomers more readily than those around Wick. Are those, too, orographically enhanced? Any thoughts from you azskycaps?

Also, while I'm asking...does anyone know if there is a website for data from the McDowell Mountains or Fountain Hills AZ? I've been having conversations with a long time resident over there about setting up a station that would gather some unofficial, but reliable data. Nothing yet.

[Aslkahuna]

may be related to the LLJ associated with the Gulf Surge phenomenom. But orographics does play a major role in our monsoon. Problem is, the main studies of the monsoon have been limited to the PHX and Tucson areas with little attention paid to the outliers or the area that is the real "heart" of the monsoon, the corner of SE AZ east of the Santa Ritas.

Steve

[M2]

...oooooohhhhhhhhh, we'll be looking south and she'll be sneaking in
from Tejas???? Oh baby, let me go read some progs....

I'll be back....

...BTW - just posted the winning Powerball numbers over in 'Off Topic'
in case any of you were hoping to be bazillionaires...

[Stephanie]

The potential storm track of Tropical Storm Claudetter has it heading towards the Brownsville/Mexico border! I can't imagine that you couldn't receive something from her if that track holds! I hope so!

[Arizwx]

YES!
The set up is now taking on all charactaristics of my 'Prognostico de Grillo Arizona'.
NO heat wave!Nada.LOL!No 112..no 111 no 110..no 108...nada.It was only 97F here at the 'Grillo' at High Noon...and even the 'Grinin' Jackelope' up on the wall has now read the 11:55am TUSAFD!!Ha!I have a 57F dewpoint,and as the midlevels moistion up..it's Monsoonal Sticky out there.Let me qualify that tho..by saying it is a Warm Green Corn Tamale out there..no doubt and PHX up to Pinetop will get blasted because of the location of the hi..however..we NEED this migration to get the 'Soons Crankin' and the Benefits will pay off in Spades.
Winds are backing wayyyyyyy off to only 7mph max.Hehehe.The Stacker 2 Hi has moved out...as progged and Vegas is getting the heat.Hmmm.Slight miscalculation by some well meaning 'Met' fans!
Now,KEPZ....the El Paso 88-D!!!WOWSA!Look at Nuevo Mexico from ABQ to Alamagorda just off the spine of I-25.Convection!Boomerage!And a right fine lookin' cell just off the AZ/NM border near Silver City(exHome base of Keirnan Sucklings' ilk BTW).Several Sev Trstrm Warnings in effect from the Santa Fe Trail to ABQ and S to Las Cruces.Hehehee.
Mexican Moisture has 'leaked'..more like Invaded New Mexico like Generalisimo Santa Ana
Moreover...TWC has the '-removed-' crew in Tour de Force..'Claudette' a first,a 1003 mb(and weakening they said)...Press now??Est 993!!!!With 70 mph sustained..a 'Cane Warning' for the Yucatan..
Weakening?Hmmm.Sure lousy IR Sig..but for a fast mover..not unusual.
The EPAC is also waking from the June Swoon..'.Enrique' may emerge by Fri.
My point is that the Atmosphere is finally changing..trof has pushed off the Midwestern Training Sev Wx..and our Four Corners Hi slides in to the Corner Booth waitin' to be served.
It looks good for some LTG showtime tonight as those New Mexican Tormentas slide SSW toward Texas Canyon..then the influx of H2 OHH!
Looks like the Stage from Del Rio and Chihuahua is right on time!
Gidde YUp!

Temp 102F/Dp 57F/Calm/Haze ...'Down at the Sunset Grill ,Gazin' at the Auburn Sky'
Looks like a Good Eve to listen to Don Henley..'Building the Perfect Beast'.

[azsnowman]

I starting to believe the *nonsoons* up here this year are heading for a "Big Time BUST!" Even in past years when the rest of the state flops, we normally have at least a CLOUD or 2.......so far, "Phhfffft!" ZERO, ZIP, NADDA....pass some of that moisture up here would ya dang it!

Dennis

[Arizwx]

I starting to believe the *nonsoons* up here this year are heading for a "Big Time BUST!" Even in past years when the rest of the state flops, we normally have at least a CLOUD or 2.......so far, "Phhfffft!" ZERO, ZIP, NADDA....pass some of that moisture up here would ya dang it!

Dennis

Dennis,
Ya might want to re read the above missive..I stated a major influx of GOC Moisture..It happened this AM..also ATTM..I have a 'Spec Wx Statement' out of Douglas/Bisbee Intl' with a Trstrm in Progress with Gusty winds and LTG..moreover a SEVERE Boomer on I-10 from Silver City,NM to Texas Canyon/Willcox,AZ INCOMING..headed right at Reddington Pass for some fireworks early this PM...
Read the FLZ AFD..they concurr this moisture surge SHOULD infact give good moisture at midlevels of the atmos for the eintire state as the GFS solution has been very good...however they hedge with other models,the fact is this...you have excellent Orographic Lift potential for some Boomers on the Mogollon Rim.
I would expect CB buildups Fri afternoon.Take it easy,and enjoy a Lemonade in the meantime...the heat should end soon.Take Care Bro!

[Stephanie]

TWC weekly planner hinted at moisture and "perhaps" the beginning of the monsoon next Wednesday. They are also thinking that Claudtte's moisture maybe making its way WEST.

KEEPING MY FINGERS CROSSED!

[Colin]

Same here Stephanie...I'm hoping with all my might that Claudette's moisture gets your way!

[Arizwx]

TWC weekly planner hinted at moisture and "perhaps" the beginning of the monsoon next Wednesday. They are also thinking that Claudtte's moisture maybe making its way WEST.

KEEPING MY FINGERS CROSSED!

\\

No offense intended..but I'm well out in front of TWC..which uses the MOC
old MRF sequence of Mods..I discount half+ of what they spew.
Moreover..frankly..Dr Lyons is a smart guy..but is blowing the potential for serious FF in S Tejas...aka 'Allison.
'Dr 'Good News' should know better.
15-30in of RA+ even from a strong troppy storm out of the BOC is not out of the question..and he talks of 'surf'.I am a surfer and know how to make a potentially dangerous situation real...man what a waste of talent IMO.

[Aslkahuna]

for Douglas and Nogales based upon dewpoints (though little else) but not for Tucson or Sierra Vista. The situation is somewhat complex as we are definitely getting moisture in but not necessarily from traditional sources. A look at the 11/00Z H5 analysis shows the Upper High centered over Flag at 599 Dm, the trajectory over SE AZ is clearly from the Plains east of CO around the High into AZ. At H7 this shows as a band of moisture extending across western NM and eastern AZ. There was also a wind max at H5 suggesting that an impulse may have rotated through generating the thunderstorms we saw today. At 850, the monsoon moisture boundary is south of SE AZ but extends up into SW AZ with a Gulf Surge. This is supported by the WV imagery which shows clearly that we are dealing with two different moisture regimes. Now here is where it gets sticky, the Gulf Surge by itself is not deep enough the generate any rainfall and it is very unlikely that ti will be a factor in Cochise County. The mid level moisture does not have the capability of generating widespread heavy showers and is also not monsoonal in orgin since it has rotated around the High from the westerlies. The models treat this high differently with the GFS holding it over us which means more of what we are getting while the others move it to a more favorable position though I noticed earlier on the ECMWF run that it really didn't get us into real good monsoon like flow until Day 6. The ETA-X earlier today was most emphatic that the Gulf Surge would not reach the SE corner of AZ and equally emphatic that rainfall would be confined to SE and far NE AZ with no amounts much over 0.5in through 84 hours. That's the situation as it stands tonight. Any thunderstorms that do form will have the potential for extremely strong winds as we will be in a classic Inverted V situation.

Steve

[Arizwx]

Well..I have a few comments categorically.
First for Dennis.I know it's hot..I know first hand.At 22:30 I went for a skinny dip..with an air temp of 97F..and humid.I sit here now with a glass of ice to melt down with lime and a Quart of 'Sunny-D' Orange drink.
Yes..It's hotter than Georgia Asphalt outside and even my A/C can't seem to keep up.My Dogs are barkin' from walking on Concrete soaked in AZ Heat.It's hot.Hell..Bullhead City(whoever named that place should be horse dragged and hung)hit a hi of 124F..in the freakin' shade.124F folks.
Alltime hi for AZ is 128F downriver at Lake Hav City back in the 1990s.
Yep.hot.
AZ is the 6 th largest state in land area.Impossible to please everyone at once.Fact is..last yr..you had the Rodeo fire to deal with.This yr..we have lost 85,000 acres and honestly, after 3 weeks of this hell..I'm ready for the extinguisher of the rains...'Classic' nonsoonal or not...I had a ballsy call of a forecast that honestly was off the wall.It's verified thus far.I'll take it.We need it.
Kahuna is correct with his assessment save for one issue.
Mid and low level moisture has poured in here like a screen door in a Submarine.When she de-stabilizes after the Sun hits it..we'll get more than outflow.Its boomer time.Downburst winds will result and with the dry soils..it may look like Cairo in Phx by the time we re read this in 17hrs.
'Classic ..non classic..neo classic..WHO CARES?We need RAIN.
That was the entire point of this thread.Not the 'classic' or'official' anything.I swung for the fences and so far...it may carry.

[M2]

SURGE! SURGE! MOISTURE Incoming from both New Mexico and Old Mexico del Sur.
At 1:15 am Friday morning, we have dewpoints in the lower 60s with humidity
at 30% and rising - :Fade-color :Fade-color :Fade-color

WAHOOOOOOOOO! :Fade-color Atmosphere's changing, winds are changing - can we get some action -
somewhere in the State - this weekend???? Look at this water vapor image
from tonight: