STORM2K

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1038 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WITH VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED INSOLATION HELPING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SLIDES SEWD INTO KY TDA. A STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW
WILL BRING FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS A STRONG H85 JET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WIND AND HAIL WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND A LOW WET BULB ZERO. THE 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SHOWS DESCENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT LITTLE SPEED SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST STATES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM CENTRAL VA ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
ONLY MARGINAL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /500MB TEMPERATURES OF -18 TO
-20C/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH
A FEW HOURS OF HEATING...AND THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OFF THE
VA/CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM PRIMARY ACTIVITY...INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/FL THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WIND MAX. AS THE
SURFACE LOW WRN VA MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SERN VA INTO
NERN NC WILL BACK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT GIVEN COOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MLCAPES
RISING TO 1000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN HEAT INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S. WHILE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FREEZING LEVELS...THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
FORMATION. MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW UNDER
APPROACHING STRONG MID LEVEL JET. STORMS ALSO COULD EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINES/BOWS UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
WIND THREAT.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141620Z - 141815Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED
WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN
VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS
WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD
15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO
S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND
SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND
S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT
BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...

34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761
36057645 35067624 34067875

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH AREA DURING AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
FURTHER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE DOMINATE THREAT. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE CONCERN.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES