STORM2K

aveosmth wrote:These storms should be up here by midnight then! It is getting cloudier by the second, and we should have an interesting night!

NWS San Diego AFD wrote:A LOW OFF THE COAST AND A LARGE HI TO THE E WILL FUNNEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
20 TO 30 KT AT 700 MB A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE WHICH WILL TEND
TO SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
TUE. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES OUT TO THE NE WED AND DRIER
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

NWS Los Angeles AFD wrote:.SHORT TERM...POTENTIALLY INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR
TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINE
THIS WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE, A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAX
NEAR SBA AROUND 12Z, AND A PRETTY DECENT THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE SOME RAIN OUT OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STILL A LOT OF FACTORS NEED TO PLAY OUT JUST
RIGHT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST FEW RUNS IN SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO. NATURALLY THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR
AND EVEN PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
WHERE THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR, AND IT'S MAINLY FOR THIS REASON
THAT I'VE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH 30 POPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA. THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND THETA-E RIDGE AXIS, MAINLY FROM LA COUNTY
STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SLO COUNTY, WHILE THE NAM
IS CENTERED CLOSER TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. WILL BROAD BRUSH THINGS
FOR NOW AND WE CAN REFINE THIS AS THINGS DEVELOP (OR DON'T DEVELOP).

LATEST SAT IMAGERY IS INCONCLUSIVE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE GOES PW CHANNEL IS SHOWING HIGHER PW'S
DRIFTING UP THE BAJA COAST, BUT WE'RE STILL QUITE A BIT BELOW WHAT
THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE NAM) WERE FORECASTING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT REALLY IMPRESSED YET WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOWING UP ON THE IR, BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE ONCE THE MOISTURE
STARTS MOVING INTO THE DIFLUENT PART OF THE FLOW JUST EAST OF THE
UPPER LOW. LOW LVL MOISTURE ON BOTH OF THE MODELS IS NOT GREAT, BUT
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIP AT THE SURFACE IF THE OTHER
FACTORS ARE IN PLACE. AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPENES MESSAGE WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW ORIENTATION AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES OVERNIGHT.

SO OVERALL, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING. GIVEN THE
BETTER MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WE'VE UPPED THE
POPS ONE CATEGORY. CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN THE WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS, THOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS, ASSUMING ALL THE ELEMENTS COME
INTO PLACE.

THESE SITUATIONS TEND TO DEVELOP PRETTY RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND WE
SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA BY MIDNIGHT IF ANYTHING IS GOING TO
DEVELOP AND WHERE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, LEAVING US MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

NWS San Francisco AFD wrote:.DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A SPARKLING SUNNY AND WARM MONDAY...RAPIDLY
INCREASING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SET
TO BRING US OUR FIRST MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN MONTHS IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT...
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOOKING SOUTHWARD...GATHERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
SEEN NOW JUST ENTERING THE GOLDEN STATE...WITH ENTRAINMENT FROM
TROPICAL STORM MAX. OFFSHORE CUTOFF LOW APPEARS NEARLY STATIONARY...
AS IT HELPS TO PULL THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A DEVELOPING DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.