First cold front of the season!
Posted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:56 pm
Well, it appears the first strong cold front, maybe not THAT cold, is coming in off the Pacific this week!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 052207 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST MON SEP 05 2005 .SYNOPSIS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A SOMEWHAT STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SETTING UP THE BATTLE OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL BE LAPPING UP AGAINST THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT AT THE SAME TIME A DRY AND WARM CAP OF SOUTHWEST AIR WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (30 PERCENT) WITH ONLY ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES ARIZONA AND APPEARS TO PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLIES). BEYOND FRIDAY/SATURDAY MODELS HINTING TOWARD A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY PUNCH. AS A RESULT...ZERO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 052207 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST MON SEP 05 2005 .SYNOPSIS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A SOMEWHAT STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SETTING UP THE BATTLE OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL BE LAPPING UP AGAINST THE MOGOLLON RIM BUT AT THE SAME TIME A DRY AND WARM CAP OF SOUTHWEST AIR WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. PROBABLY LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (30 PERCENT) WITH ONLY ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES ARIZONA AND APPEARS TO PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLIES). BEYOND FRIDAY/SATURDAY MODELS HINTING TOWARD A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY PUNCH. AS A RESULT...ZERO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
The first snow here in town is *usually* the last week in October, now up in the *higher* country, it's about 7 weeks away 
where has this YEAR GONE?