First off is the heat wave aspect of the situation. As you can see by reading the selected forecasts below:
ZONE FORECAST FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
CAZ042-261030-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 54 TO 60.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 68 TO 78.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS 55 TO 61.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE
BEACHES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM 72 NEAR THE BEACHES TO 95 INLAND.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE BEACHES. LOWS 58 TO 64.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE BEACHES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 75 TO 92.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 58 TO 65. HIGHS 77 TO 92.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 58 TO 65. HIGHS 75 TO 90.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LOWS 52 TO 62. HIGHS 70 TO 85.
CAZ043-261030-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 54 TO 61.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 67 TO 74.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING INLAND. LOWS 56 TO 62.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETREATING TO NEAR THE BEACHES BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS 71 TO 82.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE BEACHES. LOWS 58 TO 65.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE BEACHES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 73 TO 83.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 66. HIGHS 75 TO 85.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 59 TO 65. HIGHS 73 TO 83.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LOWS 53 TO 63. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
CAZ048-261030-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LOWS 51 TO 56.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 82 TO 90.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 54 TO 59.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. HIGHS 96 TO 102.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 58 TO 63.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 96 TO 104.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 58 TO 65. HIGHS 92 TO 102.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 57 TO 64. HIGHS IN THE 90S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS 85 TO 95.
CAZ055-056-261030-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 36 TO 50.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 69 TO 80.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 45 TO 58.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. HIGHS 77 TO 88.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 49 TO 62.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM. HIGHS 80 TO 91.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 53 TO 63. HIGHS 75 TO 85.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 52 TO 62. HIGHS 75 TO 85.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS 73 TO 83.
CAZ058-261030-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 40 TO 53.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 73 TO 81.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 48 TO 61.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. HIGHS 82 TO 92.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 52 TO 65.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 84 TO 94.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS 75 TO 85.
CAZ060-261030-
APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEYS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 48 TO 56.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 86 TO 92.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 53 TO 61.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 95 TO 101.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 59 TO 64.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 97 TO 103.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 95 TO 101.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 94 TO 100.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS IN THE 90S.
CAZ061-062-261030-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
230 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 58 TO 68.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 95 TO 103.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 68 TO 76.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY HOT. HIGHS 106 TO 112.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 72 TO 80.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 106 TO 112.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE HUMID. LOWS 73 TO 83. HIGHS 100 TO 106.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 72 TO 82. HIGHS 99 TO 105.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 65 TO 75. HIGHS 100 TO 106.
the moisture is progged to be sufficient enough for showers and thunderstorms by Friday. The temperatures are also going to go very high Tuesday through Thursday. Which leads me to my next point, the AFD...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND
EARLIER CLEARING OF THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INLAND BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND BY FRIDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS...SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARED MOST OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT WERE PERSISTENT IN ORANGE COUNTY AND NW PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE INVERSION STILL TO BE AROUND 3500 FEET...BUT SOME COOLING ABOVE THE INVERSION WAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IT. THE COOLING ALOFT WAS EVIDENT IN THE DESERTS WHERE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 3-6 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT ELSEWHERE...TEMP CHANGES WERE VARIABLE WITH PARTS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS ACTUALLY 10+ DEG F WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE EDDY HAS DISSIPATED...SO THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO LOWER THE INVERSION HEIGHT THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS.
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ALMOST DOWN TO SEA LEVEL TUE AM...SO TUE SHOULD HAVE SHARP WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. WHILE THE INVERSION WILL BE STRONG AND QUITE SHALLOW...WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO JUST THE COAST BOTH NIGHT AND DAY...THOUGH SOME SLOW AFTERNOON CLEARING MAY STILL BE A SLIGHT ISSUE AT THE BEACHES. TUE-THU LOOKS QUITE WARM...THOUGH THE DESERTS WILL ACTUALLY COOL SOME THU BECAUSE OF INCREASED RH AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SE. IN RESPONSE...SOME AREAS W OF THE MTNS COULD ACTUALLY SEE WARMING THU...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY. SINCE THE E-SE FLOW ALOFT WILL LAST ABOUT 3 DAYS...THIS SHOULD BE LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED OR EVEN SCATTERED TSTORMS OVER THE MTNS/DESERTS. AN EASTERLY WAVE AROUND FRI WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR THE TSTORMS...IN ADDITION TO DECENT THOUGH NOT EXTREME INSTABILITY. THE TEMP GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERTS WILL PRODUCE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW...SO SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD GET FAIRLY HIGH AT TIMES IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE TROUGH TO OUR W/NW NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WEAK...SO THE COOLING TREND THEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE SLIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT QUITE NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
.SAN...NONE.
As you can see by reading the above AFD, they are fairly confident that this heat wave and mioisture influx is going to happen. Post your thoughts here.
